Week 14's Sopping Wet Picks

In case you were wondering, Overtown lost by 3 last night, barely covering the +3.5 run spread. Game was marred by some awful, awful calls. Maybe these two teams will meet again in the playoffs.

But now on to more pressing matters - week 14's picks. I am 9-16, so don't listen to me. I don't know what Heat is because he makes up lines in his head and hasn't posted any recaps on here. I imagine he's still in a post-cum haze after Detroit's epic late-game suck. I know I am.

So, as usual, look at my lines and bet the EXACT OPPOSITE. Heat will probably add his picks in burning hot red.

That's right, Heat is in the bitch with that hot red font color. By the way, I went 4-12 with my made up lines last week. Our credibility on this blog is quickly fading. I am too broke to bet with any real money but I'll put my bets down in the amount of $5 and $10, because if I had money, that is how much I would bet.

NOTE: All of my lines are from topbet.eu. Any line that I use on here can be bet on, right the fuck now, using real money.


DENVER @ OAKLAND +10.5

Well. A 10.5 point home underdog. And it's well deserved, too. Oakland is coming off a narrow 3-point loss to motherf-ing Cleveland at home while Denver is fresh off a second-half pasting of Tampa.

Carson Palmer will throw for like 350 yards, but he'll mix in one TD and four picks. This is a fucking hard line right off the bat....I really don't know where to go on it. I'm going to pick the home double-digit Thursday night dog, but I'm not confident enough to put anything behind it.

I took this spread and made a Facebook Profile Picture bet. The loser changes their profile pic for 48 hours. I'm taking the points and the RAAAIIIIIDDDERRS.

MEAT'S PICK: Oakland +10.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Oakland + 10.5, Facebook Pride


BALTIMORE +1.5 @ WASHINGTON

The one bad thing about Baltimore losing to Charlie Batch last week is that it finally exposed Baltimore for all it's flaws. This was one of the worst 9-2 teams in the history of Earth. They cannot pass consistently, they cannot defend anything, their QB is not all that unlikely to put up a Sanchez-ian performance...yet if they would have pulled out the expected win last week, they'd probably be favored over a 6-6 Redskins team. Not the fuck anymore.

This is not to say that they still aren't the right choice here...Washington, for all it's sizzle, has really no defense to speak and that could lead to a sighting of good Flacco. I'm aware that they played well against NYG last weekend, but I don't expect them to go holding every team to 16 points. And NYG has been weird as hell recently. No idea what to expect from them.

Damn. I guess I have to think that RG III and company will torch Baltimore's defense and Ray Rice will run wild, but...I think Washington gets a win here. I'm not too confident, but I'll take them at home. And I'll probably throw some real money down on the Over (47.5).

I like that the experts are starting to throw in the race card for RG3. He is unreal and seems like a pretty damn good role model for the kids. I'm gonna put my fake monies on the skins as well.

MEAT'S PICK: Washington -1.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Washington -1.5, $5


KANSAS CITY +6.5 @ CLEVELAND

No. No no no no. I want nothing to do with this fucking shit. Go fuck yourself with Challenger shrapnel.
The KC high of winning for Belcher is gone. I am with Meat on this one, in the sense that I hate this game. It shouldn't even be played. I'm going with Greased Pig and the Browns, purely for fantasy points (I'm still in the hunt thanks to Meat dropping Brown)

MEAT'S PICK: Meat refuses to pick anything for this gamebortion. $0.
HEAT"S PICK: Browns $0

IF HE HAD TO: Fuck it, take the points. KC +6.5. Disgusting.

SERIOUSLY: Go fuck yourself.

ANY ACTUAL ANALYSIS?: KC is unpredictable and had been before they decided to start shooting significant others. Cleveland has no offense but a somewhat decent defense. Brady Quinn played really well last weekend but he's still Brady Quinn. Greased Pig Richardson has slowed down but he'll still probably put up 100+ yards in this game. Pick up either defense in fantasy if you go with the week-to-week option.


SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH - OFF

No spread yet as Dad Roethlisberger is still uncertain to play. Signs lead toward him playing, so I'll get back on this when that time comes. Last week I noticed late that the spread was PIT +7.5 over Baltimore, and trust me, I would have been all over that.

I'll save my text-breath for the spread reveal here.

I hate SD with a passion. No matter the spread in this one, I'm taking Pitt.


TENNESSEE +5.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS

This is tricky, because as successful as Indy has been at home, they haven't won any game handily and really haven't performed all that well on the whole. Tennessee is not very good and should not present a challenge, though, regardless of how poor Indianapolis's defense is.

Now, did Luck turn a corner last week? I don't know. He threw a TON of passes right into coverage, three were picked and probably four more were dropped. But he also made some really, really nice throws and the last drive was just way too easy for the Colts. So I'll ride the Luck train this week to put the Titans away by at least a TD. The only way I see Tennessee making this a game is Chris Johnson running wild, which I could actually see against Indianapolis, but, as it's 2012 Chris Johnson, I wouldn't bet on it.

MEAT'S PICK: Indianapolis -5.5, $25. May put actual money on this one.
HEAT"S PICK: Indy -5.5 $10

I'm riding that Luck train into victory. I hate to root against him, and I've learned my lesson. The only way I think the Titans could win is if Luck beats himself.

NYJ @ JACKSONVILLE +1.5

You know, I really don't know with this one. I don't. Because of the Jet's QB situation.

If Sanchez or McElroy were going, I'd roll with Jax right now. A home underdog in a game I think they win straight-up, I'd probably take them on the money line. But I have a feeling that it's Tebow Time. Who knows with Tebow Time, and I'd need to think about it. It also may shift the line even more into NYJ's favor, and I'm willing to wait it out. I'll probably make a decision on this one on Friday or Saturday.

But basically...everyone knew Rex was posturing when he kept saying Sanchez was his guy, Sanchez is a franchise guy, Sanchez is so good at football, Sanchez doesn't always have to suck on my D for playing time, he's making strides, he's having an excellent 5th rookie season, yada yada. But last week...he removed Sanchize, for performance reasons, FOR GREG MOTHERFUCKING MCELROY. Just think about that for a second. Removes his so-called "franchise" QB, in the third quarter of a close game at home against Arizona, for GREG. MCELROY.  That's insane. It's the tearing down of the facade. I honestly don't know why it's not a bigger deal. Rex finally couldn't hold his poker face any longer.

So...it's clear that they aren't wedded to Sanchize. They don't truly think that highly of him. Think about it...let's ignore the obvious upper-echelon QBs like Brady and Brees and look at it this way. Do you think Houston pulls Matt Schaub in this situation? Fuck no. Pittsburgh pull Ben Roethlisberger? Good fucking luck. Miami wouldn't even pull Tannehill given those circumstances.

Alex Smith may get pulled. And that's who Sanchez is. He's a worse, East Coast version of Alex Smith. Tebow's no Kaepernick but, he runs around, he's exciting, he's polarizing, he's entertaining, he draws viewers and ratings, he throws short passes like Stephen Hawking, no one prays harder, he circumcises little Thai boys, he does it the fuck all. And he's coming home to Jacksonville.And looks great warming up shirtless...proceed. It just makes too much sense. I think the NFL may goad the Jets into doing it...and I think they are embellishing his current injury status so they haven't had to make that decision. Well, if you can't hold the Sanchez poker face...probably going to struggle on that one as well.

Please pleeeeease be Tebow Time! I will probably bet your life on the Under.

MEAT'S PICK: TBA
EDIT: In hindsight, I don't really want to touch this one, but I'll take Jax, the +1.5 and the homefield advantage for $25, please.
HEAT"S PICK: Jax +1.5. Meat said it all, but Henne has my heart, and he's tugging at the strings.


CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA +3

Minnesota isn't bad, outside of Ponder. Unfortunately, he touches the ball every single play, strongly increasing the "horrible fuck up" variable of the average Viking possession.

Chicago, though, is like a much better version of Minnesota. They have the same shoddy offense, but Cutler is eons better than Ponder. I guess that helps make up for the lack of AP. Forte can do a lot of things but he's no Peterson. Both teams also have strong defenses, but Chicago's is just a level or two above that of Minnesota. Chicago killed me last week after I finally bet on them, and Minnesota played well against Green Bay. That's got me thinking that this line is a bit of a reaction to that and I think Chicago is a pretty good bet at -3, even on the road in Minnesota. Percy Harvin is still probably not going to play, and you've got to think that the Bears will force their fair share of turnovers in this one. The more I think about it, the more I like Chicago here, even after last week.

AP is running wild, but as Meat points out, Ponder has faded as the season goes on. I like Da Bears.

MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Chicago -3.5 $10


ATLANTA @ CAROLINA +3.5

Atlanta is so undependable that, at 11-1, they can only get 3.5 going down the street to play a 3-9 team and I'm still not sure I want to touch them.

Carolina, though, while they had been quietly playing well early in the year - they just haven't been the same recently. So I'll have to take Atlanta and the points and just hope that for fucking once they win a game like they should. I mean, how the hell do you pick off Drew Brees 5 times and still struggle to hold on? Pick off Peyton Manning 3 times in the first four possessions of a game and barely hang on? I don't get this team.

But - Cam Newton is no Drew Brees. He's no Peyton Manning. He's not even RG III. Yeah, I know he pouts and all that - but I don't care about his facial expressions. I said it last year and I'll say it again - he did not improve as a rookie and he just got fortunate more often than not in his big games. He threw for a ton of yards, sure. But he made bad decision on top of bad decision on top of bad decision and teams were barely making him pay for it. But that run of luck doesn't last forever, and as he stopped getting some of those breaks, he wasn't improving enough to keep it going all season. He still looks the same to me now as he did at the beginning of last year. Am I giving up on him? No. He's got great athleticism, a big arm and he can make plays. But am I going to say "don't bet against Cam Newton"? Not a chance, at the moment. In fact, that's exactly what I'm going to do.

I've never been a Cam fan, except for his play 60 commercial. He's a very good player, but I don't see him leading a team anywhere other than home for the playoff season. Atlanta has not played like a 11-1 team in the past few games, as Meat points out, but they are too deep to lose this game. I'd still be very cautious betting too much.

MEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -3.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -3.5 $0

PHILADEPHIA +7.5 @ TAMPA BAY

This is just a hard week. I haven't seen a pick that I'd consider dripping wet, let alone a sizzler. This is another tough one.

I picked Philly to sizzle last week because I couldn't see the Dallas Cowboys in their current state beating a team by 10.5 without Michael Vick fumbling everything in sight. I don't feel the same way about the Bucs. Sure, they are no juggernaut, but they played Atlanta how I'd expect them to play Atlanta and they faded in the second half of a very tough road matchup against a damn good Broncos team. So I think I can trust them to easily handle a team they should easily handle.

Philadelphia has basically no defense, and Tampa has a few weapons that they can torch the Eagles with. Josh Freeman has rebounded this year, Vincent Jackson has had a few good games, Syracuse Mike Williams looks like an NFL receiver again, Doug Martin is just Doug Martin, and even Dallas Clark is getting involved. They can also play some defense and while Bryce Brown isn't going to fumble twice a game forever, they should be able to keep him from putting up 150 yards like he has been doing.

I just don't think that Philadelphia has the players to keep this one within 10 points. You think they'll stop Muscle Hamster? I don't.

I'm actually going against Meat in this pick. Not because I disagree with his points, but I think that Philly has made a lot of changes for the better and they are starting to work together. Brown, despite the fumbles has been a huge spark. I think they'll get to an early lead and hold it vs Tampa. But the points are the real reason I'm taking the birds.

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay -7.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Philly +7.5 $5

ST. LOUIS +3 @ BUFFALO

They still don't get any easier.

Saint Louis is on fire, by their standards. It's basically all on Janoris Jenkins and the defense...the touchdown or two that the offense put up against Arizona was a veritable scoring explosion by their standards. Buffalo, on the other hand, scores a ton of points at home. Yet, they are also very prone to turnovers. You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy that has been known to throw a few pick sixes, against a very recently opportunistic defense.

It's a tough call, but I think that Buffalo gets their points, and St. Louis struggles to get enough to match. It's going to be a nice day by Buffalo in December standards so you won't get any crazy weather creating weird results here. Buffalo has actually protected the ball as of late and really put it on Jacksonville last week, so I'll ride them this week to come through at home against a hot but still less-than-stellar opponent.

Ugh. I really don't have anything to say about this one. I'd probably just flip a coin. St. Louis is coming off a big win, so I'll stick with their momentum.

MEAT'S PICK: Buffalo -3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: St. Louis +3 $5


DALLAS +3 @ CINCINNATI

I need a Dallas win here, as a Pittsburgh fan. I am still not high on Cincinnati. Just getting that out of the way so you are aware of my biases here. You all think Andy Dalton is a really good, bordering on top-tier quarterback and I just find that funny. It makes me laugh. It amuses me.

AJ Green, however, is an elite, top-tier receiver. You can argue he's the best WR in the NFL and not look stupid. He's Fitz-lite. Yeah, you have your Julio Joneses out there who are athletically better than Green, but he just knows how to play receiver. He runs good routes. He catches balls. He goes up to get the ball. He makes catches happen that shouldn't happen. That's exactly what Larry Fitzgerald has been doing for years.

But really, that's all you get from Cincy offensively. The Law Firm? Good teams generally don't have much of a problem with Benjarvus. Now is Dallas a good team? Not really, but I'm still not to worried about his impact.

Dallas offensively has more weapons than Cincinnati, although they have a QB much more likely to throw 18 picks in a single game. Romo could throw for 450...Dalton won't. But Romo can also throw two pick-sixes to defensive tackles in a single quarter. Dalton won't do that. And if Romo does do that stupid Romo shit, Cincinnati has the defense to take advantage of it.

So, in my mind, this is basically a toss-up game. Cincinnati is home so they should get the 3 points that you'd expect in a coin-flip game. It's going to be 65 fucking degrees, so both teams will be able to get it to their guys on the outside. I'm going to take the recent emergence of Dez Bryant (who I think will be a fantasy steal next year, worthy of a second round pick) combined with my wishful thinking and take Dallas here. May throw down on the 'Boys on the moneyline.

As much as I would like AJ Green to get in a car wreck on the way to the game (Fantasy reasons), he'll probably have his standard game. I have no faith in anything that Dallas does.

MEAT'S PICK: Dallas +3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Cincy -3.5 $10


MIAMI +10.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO

You may know what I think of Miami. Most boring team ever assembled, 4 or 5 years running now. No star power, no huge, gaping holes, no excitement, no nothing. For real...Reggie Bush is a star on this team. Do you know what Reggie Bush was in New Orleans? A punt returner who occasionally caught some swing passes on 3rd down. Darren Sproles came in, took his role and became a bigger name than Reg ever was in New Orleans. Throw this same underachiever in Miami, and yeah he's been running well, but now he's a fuckin' household name down here. Best player on the offense! Sizzle! Excitement! That's the state of the Dolphins.

Fact: They actually sell Bess jerseys in the team shop. Bess.....

Now, I am a bit surprised by this thread, given the performance of each team last week. I thought it would be lower. Vegas didn't overreact. That's why everything is shiny there and the drywall is made out of endangered Galapagos Turtle skin. So it's a tough call. But....Miami played pretty damn well by their standards last week, New England didn't....and they still lost by 7. San Francisco sucked and gave basically gave the Rams most of their points. Miami, traveling to the West Coast, playing pretty well and getting another subpar 49ers performance...may still lose by 10. So I'll play the odds here and imagine San Fran puts it all over the Fins.

I wasn't impressed by the Niners play last week. They are a solid team that could even make a super bowl run, but they seem to struggle with the under .500 teams. I like the big spread and I'll go with the fins away.

MEAT'S PICK: SF -10.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Miami +10.5 $5


NEW ORLEANS +4.5 @ NYG

Ok, remember what I said last week about New Orleans and Atlanta? Well, Atlanta held up their end of the bargain, but Drew Brees had probably the worst game of his entire life. Atlanta forces a ton of turnovers but...come on. That was just awful.

New York has been playing somewhat like the Falcons recently. I can't trust them. It's basically a repeat of last week in my mind, although I like NYG more than I like Atlanta. Still...in a vacuum, I like New Orleans to win this game. 

But...they really aren't playing for anything. They are out of it. And this game is HUGE for NYG. Their recent swoon has the Skins and Cowboys nipping at their heels.

I just can't get myself to put anything on this one. I'd take New Orleans if I had to, but in this exercise, I'm giving them the $0 chip.

No matter the outcome, I expect this to be a very good game. G-men need to win this one. Eli has better commercials than Brees this season even though he plays a fairy.

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +4.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: NYG -4.5 $0


ARIZONA +10.5 @ SEATTLE

Well, wouldn't you know...another tough pick. I still am not high on Seattle and I think this is way too much for them, even at home. But it's Arizona. Here's how bad the Arizona quarterback situation is: there's a line on this game, on Wednesday.

Yep. So what? SO WHAT!! Doug! Look at the Steelers lines. They have not been released over the last two weeks because no one knew if Charlie Batch or Roethlisberger would be starting. This would have swung the line by multiple points. If even Tony Romo or Andy Dalton were questionable, the oddsmakers would probably hold off.

But...Arizona? Who's it gonna be? Look at this: http://arizona.sbnation.com/arizona-cardinals/2012/12/4/3728788/nfl-cardinals-quarterback-john-skelton-ryan-lindley - everybody is in play this week. They could start Lindley again (and I think they do, which is why I'd consider Seattle here because he was just that transcendentally terrible last week), they could put Skelton back in, or, hey, Kevin Kolb is feeling better!

Kolb, Skelton, Lindley...who's it gonna be? No idea. And do you know what Vegas says? "Fuck it, make them a double-digit favorite". No clue who is starting and they are early 10.5 point favorites. They are just an awful team. It's hard to justify betting on them, even with a line that I think is way too high for their opponent. THEY JUST FUCKING LOST 7-6 TO THE NEW YORK JETS AND GREG MCELROY.  I don't know what to do here. I guess I'll save my money instead of betting on this awful team.

JOL that was a great analysis by the beefy one. There is nothing that I can add. I love taking any spread over 8 points so I'll agree with Meat.

MEAT'S PICK: Arizona +10.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Arizona +10.5, $0


DETROIT +6.5 @ GREEN BAY

Maybe I'll get to this, maybe I won't, but...Detroit is like the new San Diego. They just find ways to lose, and I think that should be enough for both teams to fire their coaches. Hell, Norv is years overdue on that front. So if Detroit were favored against a lesser opponent, that opponent would be my sizzler.

But...they also keep it close so that it is that much more of a back breaker when they do find those ways to lose. And this game, at the almost 7 point spread, seems to be right in their wheelhouse for that. Green Bay hasn't been playing thaaaaat well at home, and Detroit just always loses by a few points. This is perfect. Hell, Detroit may even pull the Lions-est move ever and win this tough, ultimately meaningless game. I'll throw more money into this black hole, why not.

FUCK DETROIT

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit +6.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: GB -6.5 $The USA's deficit 


HOUSTON +3.5 @ NEW ENGLAND

And this week finishes off just the way it started...impossible for me to decipher. I've had to weigh multiple picks in recent weeks for my sizzler. This week, I have none. I can't. I am going sans sizzler this week. If I had to pick one, I'd probably choose from Washington, Indy or maybe Buffalo/Tampa Bay...but I can't. I just can't call those sizzlers. I don't want to speak for Heat, but I imagine he may like Indy -5.5 to sizzle. But I'll let him confirm or deny that.

As to this one, I like New England but not as much as those other options.. I'm leaning toward NE winning relatively handily. Houston is good but...Green Bay threw all over them and I think if anyone else is going to do it, it's Thomas Brady, at home on a Monday night. Brady just became a father for the third time and, unlike Dad Roethlisberger, didn't need to fake an injury to go help deliver the baby like a fucking woman and instead has a manly, laser-sharp focus on football. That should be enough to beat Houston by 4.

Way too many Roethlisberger references in one blog. I honestly have no opinion on this game. I wouldn't bet anything on either side. I do lose most of my bets when I bet with my heart, but I can't even use my mind on this one. If you like Meat's argument, go with him. If not, enjoy the game like I will and hope that Andre gets 5 TDs.

MEAT'S PICK: NE -3.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Houston +3.5 $0