Friday, November 22, 2013

WOOO FOOTBALL WEEK 12

Image is second result for search of "football yeah". No idea who it belongs to. Good for them.

I'm down $25 and have lost motivation to write for some reason. Weirdly lethargic. I need adderall.

Anyway, here's my bets this week:



6.5 POINT TEASER: Detroit -2.5 over Tampa and Denver/NE OVER 47.5, -120

I think Tampa could win this game, but I do think Detroit will. So I'm going to take Tampa straight up to cover 9 points, but at 2.5? Basically hedging my bets with a large possibility to 'middle' this one. I think Denver/NE over 47.5 is basically automatic. They gon' be flingin' it.




STEELERS +1.0 @ CLEVELAND, -110

I think the Steelers win. Cleveland's defense is awesome but, one great CB isn't going to shut down the Steelers offense like it does the Cowboys or Lions of the world, as even though Antonio Brown is clearly their best WR, no one receiving threat makes this sad offense go. That and Cleveland's offensive showing last week suggests to me that with minimal pick-sixes, Pittsburgh should win this one and keep alive their hopes at getting blown out in the wild card round.



BEARS +1.0 @ ST. LOUIS -105

Same as above - I think the slight road dog wins. St. Louis has looked capable like, two or three times this season. They are coming off of a bye, sure, but I still think they are better at losing than they are at winning. Chicago has been surprisingly competent with Josh McCown and he's facing Kellen Clemens soooo just bet on it. Don't actually watch it.



6-POINT TEASER: DALLAS +8.5 @ NYG, OVER 40.5, -110

Not sure why I teased this, as I think Dallas will win straight up. NYG has put together the least-impressive four game winning streak I've ever seen...seriously, struggle to win v. Minnesota, 15-7 win v. Eagles and Matt Barkley/crippled Vick, struggle haaaard to win at home v. Oakland, and then a win over Scott Tolzein and co. The Cowboys are like the only healthy, decent quarterbacked team they've faced in a month. I guess I figured that over 40.5 is a lock as it will rain fumbles and pick-sixes, but get on Dallas in this one.




SAN DIEGO +5.5 @ KANSAS CITY, -110

I think the Chargers "surprise" the world and beat KC straight up. San Diego is basically the second decent team they'll face to this point in the season that actually has a healthy QB. I don't think KC is that good so I'll take the points.




TAMPA BAY +9.0 @ DETROIT, -110

I also think the Bucs have a good shot here. And Detroit always lets me down. And this week they are the consensus survivor favorite, meaning they WILL fuck you if you pick them. Bucs should at least keep this one within a TD. Detroit hasn't actually beaten anybody by 7+ all season.


Let's get it.








Thursday, November 21, 2013

Stuck in a rut



Damn it, I suck now. 


INDY -3 OVER TENNESSEE (@ TENN) -115


Push.




6-POINT TEASER: NE +8.5 @ CAR and OVER 40.0 -110

Up $9! You're looking at one guy who couldn't give a fuck less about "the call". 




6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY +11 @ NYG and CINCINNATI +0.5 over CLEVE -110


Really appreciate that late pick-6, Tolzein. Good job, my man. 




6.5 POINT TEASER: AZ -0.5 @ JAX and DENVER -2.0 v. KC -120


Easy. +$7.




6.5 POINT TEASER: INDY +3.5 and DETROIT +5 @ PITT -120


The Steelers pulling away late on the strength of Jim Schartz'z insane fake field goal call does me in, but I can't complain. Thanks for the gift, Jim! -$3.


And finally, a loss on the big teaser.


AZ -0.5 @ JAX
INDY +3.5 @ TENN
DET +5.0 @ PITT
GB +11.5 @ NYG
GB/NYG OVER 35.5


That leaves me at $-13 for the week and -$25 over the last two. Gotta pick it up this week. 







Thursday, November 14, 2013

Week 11's DRIPPING MOIST ACTION



Ok, I'm down $12 after last week. Let's get it back, $10 per bet, starting with:


INDY -3 OVER TENNESSEE (@ TENN) -115

$100 wins $187, if you bet real actual monies.

Indianapolis has one terrible game and a line that should almost be double digits is 3. This seems a pretty healthy game to at least push (it started at -3.5). Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading the charge for the Titans. Read that again. Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm.

Bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick.



6-POINT TEASER: NE +8.5 @ CAR and OVER 40.0 -110

I think New England wins this one straight-up, and I think a relatively healthy number of points will be scored (MNF teams seem to be flingin' it this year), so I'll certainly take NE and eight and a half and over a middling total of 40. Seems like one of those 27-24 types. My only fear is Bad Cam showing up and sabotaging everything.



6-POINT TEASER: GREEN BAY +11 @ NYG and CINCINNATI +0.5 over CLEVE -110

I'm liking the 6-point teasers as they have similar vigs to the straight up bets, and this one allows you to cross 10 off for GB and get the Bengals as a pick 'em in a game they should win. You can make a living at 60% hit rate on 6-point teasers (betting $100 and hitting 60% would leave you with $115). I think GB will easily keep it within 10 of the Eli Manning Pick-Six Express what with Tolzein actually practicing this week like he's going to play football, so I'm quite comfortable throwing them in with Cincy here. This is a huge game for the Bengals, at home, and they need to win it. As a Steeler fan, I hope they fuck it up, but I'm being pragmatic here.



6.5 POINT TEASER: AZ -0.5 @ JAX and DENVER -2.0 v. KC -120

Went with 6.5 instead of 6 so I could get AZ as a straight win. They should murder the Jags, that win they had last week was fluky as absolute fuck and while I have nightmares anytime I bet on Carson Palmer, I think this is a game they win like 95% of the time. It's my survivor pick this week, as Jaxmas has come and gone and I can now start backing Jags opponents. I wanted to tease this with Houston straight-up over Oakland, but the site wouldn't let me include that one in the teaser. As such, I'll throw Denver in because I think they'll win this going away. In hindsight, I should have thrown Denver into a 6 point teaser since the half-point is meaningless, but whatever.



6.5 POINT TEASER: INDY +3.5 and DETROIT +5 @ PITT -120

Do you see either of these teams losing by more than a field goal, if you see them losing period? I don't, give me my monayyyy!



This week's large teaser (5 team, 6.5 pt teaser, +350 odds) with all of my week 11 favorites and an over to tie it together:

AZ -0.5 @ JAX
INDY +3.5 @ TENN
DET +5.0 @ PITT
GB +11.5 @ NYG
GB/NYG OVER 35.5

Uh-oh. I have a lot riding on road teams.

Oh well, these saucy picks are guaranteed to pay big!








SON OF A...


Way to come back with a bang, Meat.

Was away all week, no bets on week 10. Week 9's results:

7-POINT TEASER: ATLANTA +14.5 and ATL/CAR OVER 37.0

Loss, ATL is a joke. - $10


ATLANTA +7.5 over CAROLINA

See above. -$20 cummulative 


7 POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+0) and PIT/NE OVER 37.0

Woo! A win! I'll round the payout up to $8. -$12


7 POINT TEASER: MIAMI +10 and BUFFALO +10.5 and CLEVELAND +10 and HOUSTON +10

Thank goodness for this one. Paid out at two to one, so I get $20 back. +$8



7 POINT TEASER: SEATTLE -10 and GREEN BAY -3.5

Both easy losses. -$2



U. of FLORIDA +2.5 over GEORGIA

Georgia by...fucking 3. -$12 for the week. Will be better today!


SEASON TOTAL: -$12

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

MEAT'S BACK IN THE HOUSE


Why the hell not? I still bet, I still have fingers, it's 5:30 so I don't want to work anymore today, why not get the old band back together? Jk, Heat ain't coming back.

Due to my extremely sexy betting success last year, I have more money in my account than when I started. So you know what? LET'S GET FUCKING WILD. Last year I bet $5 a bet because losing large bets sucks ass and small bets are still fun for me. But starting now...$10 A BET. Yeah, you fucking heard me. Ten dollars. I know that's an entire Hamilton, but when your picks are as dripping wet as mine are...you can afford it.

Oh, and now I just pretty much do 2-team teasers all day because they are fun. If you don't like it, you can suck Marty Mornhinweg's dick. I had to look up how to spell his stupid name.

Sure thing, Marty

Let's get down to biznasssss

7-POINT TEASER: ATLANTA +14.5 and ATL/CAR OVER 37.0

You gotta look for those football numbers - any spreads that are multiples of 3 or 7. Because that's what the fuck happens in most games, as most normal non-cocksucking teams score 3s or 7s. Or 0s in Jacksonville.

Now, Atlanta sucks shit-covered dildos, as most teams that acquire Steven Jackson tend to do (that guy is like the Winston Churchill of sucky football). Julio Jones's metal foot broke again, Roddy White's crippled ass finally sat down on the bench for a week, but...giving 7.5 to Carolina? I'd be pretty confident with Atlanta at +7.5, let alone +14.5. Carolina is too ehh offensively and it just seems that Atlanta always beats Carolina. Over 37 because I hate unders.


ATLANTA +7.5 over CAROLINA

Talked myself into it.


7 POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (+0) and PIT/NE OVER 37.0

The Steelers officially blow, and for seven points, you can get New England to win straight up. There's almost no way these two teams don't put up 37, what with NE moving on the Steelers bend-but-then-break defense and Ben Roethlisberger coming alive in the second half for a storm of meaningless points, like a rising phoenix on colored-people time.

I give this 0 stars because I don't want to rate my stupid bets in stars anymore.


7 POINT TEASER: MIAMI +10 and BUFFALO +10.5 and CLEVELAND +10 and HOUSTON +10

Fuck it, home dog teaser. I can get them all for double-digits. I'm much more confident on the first two but, I mean, Houston still has the talent to keep it close with teams when Schaub isn't throwing pick-twelves and the Ravens kinda blow ass. Miami and Buffalo I think have decent shots to win straight up, as Alex Smith is the most mediocre NFL player in the entire league and Cincinnati plays more boring close games than 49-9 blowouts of a week ago. Don't put actual money on this one, I'm just getting stupid now.


One more football teaser:

7 POINT TEASER: SEATTLE -10 and GREEN BAY -3.5

These teams play Tampa Bay and Chicago at home, respectively. I think they both murder their opponent. I will bear witness to each murder.




U. of FLORIDA +2.5 over GEORGIA

This is Aaron Murray's chance to become the first Georgia QB since Shotgun McWhocares to beat UF three times in a row. This makes it somewhat of a big game for Georgia, I'd say. Georgia loses every single big game, always. You can make a lot of money by betting against Georgia. DO IT

I guess that's it for now, the rest of the college games are either irrelevant or have cartoon spreads. I think FSU pulverizes UM into snortable dust, but the 22.5 point spread gives me pause that they give up halfway through and give up a cheap cover.

Avoid the clap!

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Heat and Meat MOCK NFL DRAFT UP IN THIS PIECE

Heat would lick this guy's balls

Mock draft time! You know this shit is gonna happen, GUARANTEED. You don't even have to watch the draft.


1. TRADE!

MIAMI DOLPHINS TRADE UP TO #1 - GIVING KC THEIR FIRST ROUNDER THIS YEAR, HANDJOBS FOR THE COACHING STAFF, AND LET'S SAY TWO 2NDS

MIAMI SELECTS LUKE JOECKEL, OT, TEXAS A&M

Ok. This shit makes sense. The top of this draft SUCKS. It sucks cock. There are three positions available - Tackle (Joeckel and Fisher), rush LB (Jordan/Ansah/Jones/etc), and DT (Floyd/Lotuleiti (sp?)).

The Chiefs have rush OLBs, kinda have a tackle, and lead the world in picking bust DLs early (haaaa Dontari Poe). Every mock drafter is giving them Joeckel, but why? Joeckel reminds me of Jake Long - going #1 because of the weak class. This is no Orlando Pace. Watch tape of Orlando Pace at OSU - he absolutely MAULED people. It was like he was Casey Anthony and the defensive linemen were his unwanted children. He was like the Waterboy out there. Neither Jake Long nor Joeckel were quite at that level. Ideally, the Chiefs would take a QB here but...they have the grand fortune of getting the top draft pick in the worst draft for QBs since Jim Druckenmiller went in the first round. So...

TRADE IT TO THE DOLPHINS!

Rumor says the Dolphins are interested in Joeckel and Eric Fisher. Neither will last until pick 12. It's a weak first round, so it would take too much to move all the way up. And the Dolphins would certainly do this. The Dolphins are comically bland, and they'd like to get even blander. So let's watch this paint dry, Miami. Fins up!



2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS SELECT DION JORDAN, OLB, OREGON

I'm not completely sold on Jordan, but he has the physical characteristics of beastliness and, let's face it, Jacksonville can take anybody at any position and upgrade. They are the only team more boring than Miami. They suck. Florida's teams are as exciting as its terrain. Watching a Jags/Jets game is like watching the live birth of trees. So they can do whatever they want here.

After picking Blaine Gabbert early two years ago, they would have presumably learned their lesson not to make the same mistake here. Take a guy like Jordan who many compare to Von Miller, suck ass again with Gabbert, and then take either Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater next year. Or hell, Jadaveon Clowney. Just don't blow it again on a QB. Knowing this team, they'll probably take Geno Smith. I think their recent lack of success picking high DL will cause them to shift away from Floyd and Lutoleitejhte. Let's just call him Star. That's a lot easier.


3. OAKLAND RAIDERS SELECT STAR LOTULELEI, DT, UTAH

Finally looked up this dude's name.

Ok, the Commitment to Excellence ended years ago, and was buried when the Raiders gave up two firsts and a second for the remains of Carson Palmer. But supposedly Reg McKenzie is bringing some sense to the team, and so I'm going to make a pick that I feel is sensible.

After finally releasing Tommie Kelly and his Al Davisian salary, the Raiders have a huge black hole at DT. And most mocks have them taking Sharrif Floyd. But...assuming it's not a 4-3 v. 3-4 thing...I like Lotulelei a lot more. I can't watch much on these dudes because I can't Youtube all day, but Lotulelei looks a lot more forceful and effective. I know he wasn't playing in the SE-fucking-C, where superstars everywhere else become mere backups, but he was throwing people around on the reg. Yeah they were highlight tapes but whatever. There's no 4.2 receiver here for the Raiders to cum all over (well...there is Tavon Austin...Al Davis probably would have picked him, fa rill)....so I think they'll replace Kelly with the beast NT.



4. EAGLES TRADE TO SOMEBODY

There's nothing here that makes sense for the Eagles, in my mind. At least not at 4. If the Chiefs use their first pick on Joeckel I could see the Fins trading up to this spot to take Eric Fisher. Anybody want Eric Fisher? Hmm.

EAGLES TRADE PICK TO ARIZONA FOR THEIR FIRST THIS YEAR, A ONE-YEAR SUBSCRIPTION TO BRAZZERS.COM AND A 2ND AND 3RD

CARDINALS SELECT ERIC FISHER, OT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

This actually, I think, makes a dickton of sense. Lane Johnson is this year's Riley Reiff. He'll fall, so I don't think AZ would take him 7th. They are also considering a trade for Brandon Albert of the Chiefs, which shows how desperate they are for an OT. This also allows me to keep Milliner at Detroit's spot.

Eric Fisher is a small-school guy, which people have theorized will keep him from going no. 1 overall. But here, I think he's fine. Fuck, this just makes too much sense. I'll bet everyone a 'scrip to Brazzers that it does. Jk. I'm a blacksonblondes guy, myself.


5. DETROIT LIONS SELECT DEE MILLINER, CB, ALABAMA

Ok, recent "rumors" are that Milliner's stock is falling and Detroit will go OT (if available) or Ansah instead. But, I said months ago that they go CB, so I'll stick with it. Milliner didn't look amazing when Tyler Eifert was catching go-routes on his face in the NCAA championship game, but Eifert's fuckin' good so I'm going to keep Milliner as the first CB off the board. The Lions need secondary help like Shawn Kemp needs a vasectomy, so I'm not going to panic and give them an LB or OT. They drafted Riley Reiff last year in the first...move him to LT, find a fill-in RT and thank the heavens that someone actually took Gosder Cherilus off of your hands.





6. CLEVELAND BROWNS SELECT TAVON AUSTIN, WR, WVU

My first real surprise pick. But it makes perfect sense.

The Browns are godawff on offense. There is no explosion. No splash plays. They barely displace any liquid at all, even after drafting Greased Pig Richardson 4th overall last year. So do they take a CB like Milliner if he falls? I don't think so. Do they take a QB? Not here. Do they take Ansah or a project like Mingo? I think that their defense, while not exciting, is much less of a concern than their offense. They basically just signed all of last year's Ravens. So let's look at that offense.

They have Greg Little and Josh Gordon on the outsides, and those dudes are ok, but...Austin is motherfucking electric. If he isn't a bust, he will charge the shit out of this offense. Their offense is like stagnant bathtub water, and he's like a plugged-in toaster. He should open everything up. He'll be catching balls 5 yards off the line, so even Brandon Weeden can hit him. I know he's little, but so are Welker and Amendola (ok...bad example), and neither of them are dead yet. A little WR, if used properly, can open everything up. I've seriously just convinced myself that this happens.



7. EAGLES (FROM ARIZONA) SELECT GENO SMITH, QB WVU

This was tough. I don't think the Eagles will select Smith at 4. But at 7? With some extra picks? I mean...maybe they will. You figure you have one more year out of Vick, and he may not even make it through that year. Or he may suck. Dennis Dixon is a backup. Smith is perfect for this offense. And he's CHEAP. Look at SF and Seattle...that's how you do it right now. When you don't have to pay big money to your QB, you can spend it elsewhere and bring in Anquan Boldin and Percy Harvin.

I read that the Eagle interest in Smith is real, but I don't buy it at 4. I can buy it a little bit more at 7. The Eagles may decide they want a QB who hasn't murdered entire piles of dogs, and Smith should at the least give them that.





8. BUFFALO BILLS SELECT CHANCE WARMACK, G, ALABAMA

I don't think they take a QB here, despite their repeated bluster to do so. If they do, I'd go Barkley, who locks down on receivers to the point that they develop Stockholm Syndrome. I can't see Nassib. Or Glennon. But I can see one of those two (or three) in the second round. Or Tyler Bray (haahaaaa, go ahead Buffalo, please draft him) in the third. But not first. Barkley or other position.

And I'll go other position. They are currently pencilling in a guy named David Snow to start at left guard. He was an undrafted FA who got waived and signed a lot. Chance Warmack is supposed to be an unstoppable force of beast. I was thinking Ansah here but...they signed Manny Lawson and have Nigel Bradham who I imagine they'd like to give a shot to and they still smell that Aaron Maybin stank sooooo I'm gonna go with the guard. This team pays both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to carry the load and it seems to make sense to put Warmack in front of them. I wouldn't be surprised with a big WR to pair across with Stevie Johnson, but that can probably wait until round 2 in this draft.




9. NY JETS SELECT EDDIE LACY, RB, ALABAMA

I'm mainly doing this because it's so Jets. The Jets would absolutely take a running back in the top 10, and they would think that it will relieve pressure on Sanchize, and they clearly remember employing Shonn Greene as their lead back.

Sanchize will still suck, and this almost certainly won't happen, but I'm going to mock it anyway because it's my world and yinz are just living in it.




10. TENNESSEE TITANS SELECT SHARIFF FLOYD, DT, FLORIDA

Who is Jurrell Casey? No idea. But I know who Shariff Floyd is, and I think he makes a lot of sense here. This team kinda sucks but is mediocre enough at every position that I can't find one that screams out "upgrade me!". Well...maybe DT and OLB. At least I recognize one of the OLB's names, so I'll slot Floyd in here. And he will lead the way to 8-8 City.




11. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS SELECT LANE JOHNSON, OT, OKLAHOMA

I thought Johnson would fall until I saw San Diego's depth chart. I was considering mocking Justin Hunter here, as they could use some firepower, but...holy fuck is their O-Line putrid. It's a joke. They should take OL in their first three picks. AJ Smith was the worst GM in history the way he let this team atrophy....they were good not that long ago. Bad FA signings and awful drafting have done them in. Now they might beat Vanderbilt in college overtime.



12. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT SHELDON RICHARDSON, DE/DT, MISSOURI

I'm not really sure where to go here. The Chiefs have good book-end OLBs and really need a 3-4 DE (maybe they might stay at the top and select Floyd or Lotulelei, like for reals), but what 3-4 DE is available?

(looks up 3-4 DEs available)

Sheldon Richardson! Sure, another early DE going to the Chiefs. Man they suck.



13. NY JETS SELECT JUSTIN HUNTER, WR, TENNESSEE

Gotta be consistent. If the Jets really try to fix the Sanchize problem by throwing weapons at it, and I believe they will, this makes a lot of sense. When Santonio Holmes went down last year, the receiver corps was completely barren. Stephen Hill isn't quite ready for prime time. Adding a guy like Hunter, who was considered a top-5 talent before a knee injury in 2011, with give Sanchez some more opportunities to badly miss open receivers. Then they'll cut Holmes and Sanchez next offseason and start completely from step one, with no rhyme or reason. GO JETS!



14. CAROLINA PANTHERS SELECT XAVIER RHODES, CB, FLORIDA STATE

Carolina's secondary is awful. I recognize two names, and they are Captain Munnerlyn and Ha-something Nakamuri. That's bad. Real bad.

Rhodes' stock is rising, and I think that the Panthers will go corner before they go safety. Just a hunch. That and I'm not high on Vaccaro.




15. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS SELECT JARVIS JONES, OLB, GEORGIA

Jones was at one point a consensus top-3 player. After a bad combine and everybody remembering that his spine may be irrevocably fucked up, he's dropped like a rock. But, he still lead the NCAA in sacks last year, and he still has better tape than Ansah and Mingo, and it's pretty clear that New Orleans needs a pass-rushing OLB, so I'll slot him here.




16. ST. LOUIS RAMS SELECT DEANDRE HOPKINS, WR, CLEMSON

I'm surprised Hopkins isn't talked about with the top WRs in this class, while Keenan Allen is. I think Keenan Allen is Koren Robinson's west-coast reincarnate. This pick, for me, comes down to Hopkins v. Patterson. Patterson may have a bit more flash, but I think St. L would go with Hopkins here. They need WRs, they haven't really had one for years AND they just let Amendola walk. The defense is sufficient enough that they can address OLB and safety later...I just don't see them passing on giving Bradford just one weapon to work with here to add Vaccaro.



17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS SELECT CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, WR, TENNESSEE

Well....this one was tough. If Hunter were still available I'd have him here (in the real draft, I'm going to be completely wrong, and he'll probably still actually be available). It's a toss-up for me between Eifert and Cordarrelle Patterson, and I think the Steelers will go with the receiver. Why? Because while Eifert is able to line up and play some WR, as he showed in the NCAA championship catching balls over Dee Milliner's head...I just can't see overreacting to Heath Miller's injury with a guy who may force his way into Heath Miller's job. I'd rather go with the WR here. That doesn't mean I don't think Eifert is a really, really good prospect. He's like Jeff Samardjiza on steroids. 'Cause they're both white dudes.

With Jason Worilds around, I don't see the Steelers going OLB here, no matter what all of the rumors say. Manny Sanders is probably gone, and if Antonio Brown doesn't take the next step, it's going to be hard to justify paying him almost $10 mil per year going forward. I think sticking somebody like Patterson onto the field will make it that much easier for Brown to elevate his game.




18. DALLAS COWBOYS SELECT DJ FLUKER, OT, ALABAMA


Fluker is a motherfucking mountain of a man who mauls the shit out of people. The Cowboys start Doug Free at tackle. Next question.



19. NY GIANTS

Hmm. They really need line help but Fluker and Warmack are gone. I don't think they reach for anyone else.

Their OLBs are awful, but all of the dudes left are 3-4 OLB/DE hybrids. I can't see Ansah here. Or Mingo.

Walterfootball has Bjoern Werner, who I don't really like, but I guess he makes some sense. Hold on a sec.

NY GIANTS SELECT BJOERN WERNER, DE/OLB, FLORIDA STATE

Bjoern Werner was highly rated at the start of the offseason - like top 5 highly rated. I didn't get it. He had double-digit sacks, but 6 or 7 of them came in the first two games against joke teams. I think he had less than 5 the rest of the way.

But, I read that he's smart and instinctive, and that he is German so he has a way to go as far as understanding the game, so he has some potential. I just don't like it. But I like it better than reaching for an OL prospect.




20. CHICAGO BEARS SELECT TYLER EIFERT, TE, NOTRE DAME

I just mentioned that I think Eifert is an excellent prospect, and the Bears need a tight end bad enough that they signed Matt Spaeth to a big free agent deal a few years ago. Big by Spaeth standards, at least. Sooooo that's pretty much the thought process on this one.




21. CINCINNATI BENGALS SELECT GIOVANNI BERNARD, RB, UNC

The Bengals could presumably go just about anywhere - I don't think they are that great, but they don't really have any holes in their roster. However, running back is probably one of the weaker spots. And they are in the AFC North, where yeah smashmouth, real men, running the ball, ahhhhhh and shit. So I hope they reach like Dhalsim for Giovanni Bernard, who is the top RB on a lot of boards, apparently.




22. ST. LOUIS RAMS SELECT EZEKIAL ANSAH, DE/OLB, BYU

Well, they still need an OLB. I didn't know they had another pick. Ansah is a 3-4 type OLB, but I need to get him off of my board and so fuck it, he can go to St. Louis and cum all over the arch for all I care.

I see Alec Ogletree consistently mocked to teams in this range as an ILB, St. Louis included. I don't see it. Watch his tape. He's completely lost on a football field - you may as well call him Kevin McAllister. I'd take Minter from LSU and probably even Te'o before I took a chance on Ogletree.



23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS SELECT KAWANN SHORT, DT, PURDUE

They need a DT. Kawann Short is a highly ranked DT. This is the point where I stop caring.




24. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS SELECT QB MATT BARKLEY

jk

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS SELECT DESMOND TRUFANT, CB, WASHINGTON

The Colts need defenders badly. Somehow they did ok on defense last season, but it ain't gonna last with this roster. This Trufant guy is rated highly, and Trufants out of Washington have done well in recent NFL history.



25. MINNESOTA VIKINGS - KEVIN MINTER, ILB, LSU

Forgot that Minnesota has the Harvin pick. I'd consider a WR here but you can get them later. They need to keep building the middle of that defense back-up, just like the old Vikings teams from 2009 and 2010 that were actually like, good. Minter is a beastly enough to go 1.26.




26. GREEN BAY PACKERS SELECT KENNY VACCARO, S, TEXAS

Green Bay had an awesome secondary a few years ago. That was a few years ago. Injuries and AIDS epidemics have hurt, so I imagine with the pickings available at this point, they'd inject some youth and supposed skill into it.




27. HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT ANY WIDE RECEIVER

They really need somebody across from Andre Johnson, who is no spring chicken himself.

HOW ABOUT KEENAN ALLEN, WR, CALIFORNIA

Fine. I hope they pick him, because I don't think he'll be that good.





28. DENVER BRONCOS SELECT BARKEVIOUS MINGO, DE/OLB

Why not? They just lost Dumervil, Mingo seems kind of like Dumervil, so you do the math.





29. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS SELECT JOHNATHAN COOPER, G, UNC

I read about this guy and people seem to think he's awesome. I doubt New England needs a guard, but why not go BPA? They really need a WR but I cannot see them reaching here for Robert Woods or whoever else may be available.




30. ATLANTA FALCONS  SELECT DJ HAYDEN, CB, HOUSTON

Have you read this dude's story? He almost died when a freak hit in practice caused his motherfucking aorta to rupture. Before that, he was considered as possibly the best CB in this draft. This is tremendous value for a team that needs a corner, assuming that Hayden's heart is all back together now.



31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS SELECT MARGUS HUNT, DE, SMU

Supposedly they like this dude, and Justin Smith is pushing 50, and they have like no real needs, so it makes sense.                                   



32. BALTIMORE RAVENS SELECT DA'RICK ROGERS, WR, TENNESSEE TECH

Fucking finally.

Baltimore just let Boldin go, and I don't understand why. I think he made that offense go. Da'rick Rogers was at Tennessee before using weed or something and getting kicked off of their team. He's a very Boldin-type of receiver, so I think that if he doesn't use weed anymore he'll provide good value at the end of the first.

Ok bye

Friday, April 19, 2013

WHAT THE F YO

If I did that parlay yesterday, but accidentally picked the opposite on each one, I'd have won. Wow. What a day.

Thanks for Yovani Gallardo, now every pitcher in MLB will be getting DUIs. WHAT A PRECEDENT TO SET GALLARDO.

Taking some time off from betting, as I'm 15-10 now and inching ever closer back to .500. Can't have that shiz yo.

Should have an NFL mock up soon that is perfect and guaranteed to happen exactly as depicted. Stay safe, humans.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Stupid Cavs

The Cavs came out last night with all the energy of an Alabama Gay Pride festival, finding themselves down by 18 after the first quarter in Charlotte. They fought their way back in, but...just not enough. You don't want to get down 18 after one, it's one of Nancy Liebermann's "Golden Rules of Women's Basketball", and it applies to the men's game as well. Liebs was a visionary. Don't challenge her theories...you'll lose.

So, anyway, I'll get on that diamond tonight.


BET 1: GIANTS (M. Cain) @ BREWERS (Y. Gallardo), GIANTS -125

Bet $125 to win $100....sounds like some damn good odds when you've got Matt Cain on the hill against drunk Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo had sucked before his DUI, and hopefully, for karma and society's sake, he doesn't right the ship here. Seriously, pitchers are a very quirky, superstitious bunch...if Gallardo hurls a gem, and they start thinking that DUIs will fix whatever ails them on the mound, these weird motherfuckers will do it. Can't wait to see James McDonald pounding Bud Ices before tearing through the South Side, Alameda Ta'Amu style.


BET 2: PARLAY! (It's been awhile)

A: GIANTS -125, as above

B. TIGERS (Verlander) -170 over MARINERS (Asian Dude), and

C. WHITE SOX @ BLUE JAYS, OVER 7.5

Ok. A. I've explained. B. is Verlander and while a quick check shows Asian Guy has pitched well, I'll take my chances with the tower of power JV on the hill. And C. is a matchup of 2012 aces who have struggled in a hitters park and I think they'll get the 8 runs. This one pays out at +424. I'm thinking that three-way baseball parlays may be the way to go...parlays don't really give you much of a multiplier until you bring that third team in. We shalt see!

Alright, I'm 15-8. I need some wins tonight. Let's get it.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Saved by the Rains

Well, I lost my bet on the Giants as the Zito bandwagon had a Zapruder event as soon as I got on it. And my Cards over Pirates bet was looking bad too, as the Bucs got out to an early 4-2 lead, only to have the game postponed due to rain. So it's like it never happened. Unfortch, I'd rather lose the bet and have the Buccos win. No more betting against them from Meat, I'll let Heat do that if anybody ever sees him.

So that drops me to 15-7. Still HALL OF FAME TERRIFIC AS SHIT, players. Let's get back to Meat's ol' winning ways.



BET 1: CLEVELAND CAVS @ CHARLOTTE - CLEVELAND +2.5

This is the only type of NBA game I'll bet on at this point - two teams who both are out of the playoffs and have nothing to lose.

Now, while both these teams suck, I think Cleveland sucks a whole lot less AND they have a motivated Kyrie Irving, who was just knocked in the media for playing with a "fuck it"-itiveness at the end of the Heat game and then leaving the court before fan appreciation time. He realized his mistake, manned up, and I think he'll be all in for this one. As he's the only thing approaching an NBA player that will be out on this court, that's enough for me. He should be ok beating Bismack Boyombo or whatever his name is, and his team is getting 2.5 points to work with here.




....andddd I don't see any MLB games that I want to bet on. There are a few I want to take (Oakland over Houston for one), but baseball is far too random for me to take -180 or -210 action on a single game.

So let's just ride them Cavs.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

In Which Kevin Correia Becomes an ACE

This doesn't make any sense whatsoever

Kevin Correia is awful at baseball. He's not good. He gives up a ton of hard contact. He was facing the Angels. I know they have sucked, but COME ON. Correia gave up like 2 runs in a lot of innings. The Twins put up about 8 runs. That's insane, yo. I'll have to keep betting on MLB games because, I guess, MLB is more about volume and sample size than any other sport.

Thought about taking the A's to rock Erik Bedard, but I remembered Bedard weaving some occasional early-season gems last year. He gave up 7 in the first inning. Oh well.

Anyway, my other two bets hit, so I went 2-1 (well, more like 1.5-1 but whatevs) to bring me to 15-6. Still going to be hard to beat that - you can make a living reading this site!

Let's see if I like anything tonight.


BET 1: CARDINALS (J. Westbrook) @ PIRATES (J. Sanchez), CARDS -1.5 @ +105

I'm not going to put any of my actual money on this because I don't want to bet against the Bucs, but...you should with yours. Jake Westbrook and the Cardinals are facing Jonathan Sanchez, a guy who is probably going to get sent to the minors. A guy who any of you Giants fans would probably be shocked to hear is still in the major leagues. That guy. He's taking on the Cards tonight. Good luck.



BET 2: GIANTS (B. Zito) @ BREWERS (W. Peralta), GIANTS @ -108

I'm just riding the Zito train, basically. I may be late but I'll take my chances. Get off the tracks!



I'm waffling on the A's-Astros OVER 7.5, but I'm gonna avoid it because I can't count on the Astros to score even a single run. Those two above will do for tonight.

Bet strong. Bet with Meat.


Monday, April 15, 2013

April 15th Picks

TAX-DAY SPECIALS AT HEAT AND MEAT!

Looks like nobody gives a fuck about the WNBA draft. Fuckers. Let's get back to what we do best...bettin' on NBA games.



BET 1: MIAMI HEAT @ CLEVELAND, MIAMI +1

What? Is there something I'm missing? Why are the Cavs favored over the Heat? Did LeBron die?

I think the Heat would win this game even in spite of his death, so I'll take the point. I have to be missing something here.



BET 2: CHICAGO BULLS @ ORLANDO, BULLS -165

Obviously like the Bulls to win, but don't want to chance them doing so by 4 or more points. I think this moneyline is decent so I'll take them to win straight up.



BET 3: LA ANGELS (J. Blanton) @ MINNESOTA (K. Correia), LAA -1.5 @ +130

Switching gears and going baseball here, I'll take the Angels to pound Kevin Correia. I know the Angels have kind of sucked, but...it's Kevin Correia. He's usually awful. He gives up a lot of hits and runs and homeruns and stuff. It's going to be cold, and it's going to snow, but...Correia will find a way.


Running total: 13-5

Friday, April 12, 2013

WNBA 2013 MOCK DRAFT!!!!






It's that time of year, kids! Nothing gets the atmosphere at Heat and Meat buzzing quite like the WNBA draft, where we transition almost immediately from the excitement of the NCAA Women's Final Four right into the draft, where the WNBA welcomes some young blood (hahahahahahaaha) into America's League.

This year, the number one pick is a soft, one-handed slam dunk pick, and everybody knows it. GRINE-TIME. Not only do the people of Phoenix get to watch the gritty on-basemanship of Martin Prado and the glove of Didi Gregorious this summer, they also get to witness the most dominating female force since Marge Thatcher on a near-nightly basis. Things can not be hotter in Phoenix this summer.

 Let's get to it, with Meat's 2013 round 1 mock draft.


1. PHOENIX MERCURY - Brittney Griner, Beast, Baylor

Our generation not only has the iPad and Bud Light Limes, we've also been lucky enough to witness Grines dominate the NCAA like no women had done before. Mark Cuban has been making waves about drafting her for the Mavs. Jim Irsay wants her as a wide receiver. But Phoenix Mercury fans, I imagine, are going to be the lucky ones who get to witness her go Ostertag all over the rest of the league. BG is big, fast (-ish, I think, maybe), and strong (I don't know). She's basically the Margaret Thatcher of women's basketball right now. She can kind of dunk, and as a matter of fact, I've read that of the 33 rim-rattling dunks in NCAA women's history, Grines is responsible for 18 of them. That's insane! That would be like saying of all the inches of dick in the world, I account for 60% of it. I WOULD KILL ENTIRE TOWNS WITH THAT MEGA-DICK! That's the kind of cock Griner will be bringing to the frontcourt of the Mercury. Oh, and she's fundamentally sound.


2. CHICAGO SKY - Skylar Diggins, Guard, Notre Dame

And the Chicago Sky are left with the unenvious position of drafting after Griner is gone. Is this the Ducks drafting Bobby Ryan after the Pens took Sid Crosby? The Mariners getting Dustin Ackley after the Nats took Strasburg? I don't think so. I think this is the Pens taking Malkin after the Caps got Ovechkin. Because Skylar Diggins can straight BALL, and she can do it fundamentally soundly, I'd imagine. She'll become a Margaret Thatcher-type leading Chicago's backcourt.

HOLD THE F ON.

Since I have basically no idea who the hell Skylar Diggins is, I had to look her up on the internet, and of course, she has naked pictures everywhere. That's unique. Solid second overall pick here for the Sky...local college player, more likely to have fucked T'eo than his actual girlfriend, naked on the internet. And apparently Lil' Wayne is trying desperately to hit that. We live in a strange, strange age.

Yourrrrrrr 2013 Chicago Sky!!!!



3. TULSA SHOCK - TRADE ALERT!

NEW YORK LIBERTY TRADE A BUNCH OF WOMEN'S PICKS AND THEIR 5th OVERALL WOMEN'S PICK TO TULSA FOR THEIR 3rd OVERALL WOMEN'S PICK

NEW YORK LIBERTY - Elena Delle-Donne, Forward, Delaware

OUR FIRST DRAFT SHOCK(ER)! Tulsa can't turn down this bounty of women's picks, not with so many holes to fix. New York, on the other hand, is desperately looking to find the next Becs Lobo and Delle-Donne is also a tall, white girl. I actually think Delle-Donne can ball out pretty hard, if I'm not mistaken, and if Chicago weren't hell bent on acquiring a local naked chick, she'd be a clear-cut second pick.

What a historic women's draft. Delle-Donne, in most years, is an easy number 1 pick. She's probably fundamentally sound. She's 6'5", and size rules in the women's game, where everybody is like, 5'7". And, she can woman-dunk. Nothing brings down an WNBA house like a thunderous womandunk. New York sees an opening and gives Tulsa whatever it wants. They need the next Lobo, and now's the time to act.



4. WASHINGTON MYSTICS - Kelsey Bone, Center, Texas A&M

Size matters in the WNBA, and the Mystics hurry to the podium to draft a bad bitch in Kelsey Bone, the 6'4" center from Texas A&M. Bone is kinda raw but, if she can put it all together and she puts in the time and sweat to improve, she has the potential to become very fundamentally sound. It's tough to pass on a Tayler Hill at this point, but Washington needs to get some size in the paint if they want to compete with the other women's teams this season.





5. TULSA SHOCK (from NY) - Tayler Hill, Guard, Ohio State

Tulsa passes on Delle-Donne for the RG-III-esque bounty of, let's say two future first round women's picks and a second rounder this year, and they go with the big guard out of Ohio State. At 5'10", Hill is going to be quite a mismatch for smaller women's basketball players, and women's basketball is a game of mismatches. Miss-matches, I call them, before shooting myself in the face out of embarrassment. Tulsa probably needs help in their women's backcourt, and Tayler "Miss Match" Hill is just the gal to provide it. And, if I might add, in a fundamentally sound manner.





6. SEATTLE STORM - Kayla Alexander, Center, Syracuse

Another 6'4" center going in the first round, this one to Seattle. Kayla Alexander will give Seattle that big shot-blocker in the paint who can grab boards and then pass them to Sue Bird. "All-Day" Kay is, I'm sure, very fundamentally sound and we all know the "Liebermann Equation"...size + fundamentals = championships. It's basically the e=mc2 of the WNBA. Kayla Anderson is about to become the Storm's Einstein. I haven't seen a bitch this bad since Margaret Thatcher.





7. TULSA SHOCK (from NY) - Toni Young, Forward, Oklahoma State

Oh snap! Turns out the Liberty had another first rounder this year that they had received from the Atlanta women's basketball team. Let's assume that this pick goes to Tulsa in the Delle-Donne deal. Tulsa will then turn around and take who I've read is the best natural athlete in this draft, 6'1" forward Toni Young out of Oklahoma State. Athleticism is nice and Toni will likely put out her own personal highlight reel of super-athletic lay-ups, but, if it's going to work out in the end, she needs to become fundamentally sound. She's going to have to work hard at the next level if she's to reach her full potential. She's going to have to learn how the pros play and really work on her all-around game. She basically needs to find her inner Margaret Thatcher.





8. SAN ANTONIO SILVER STARS - Tianna Hawkins, Forward, Maryland

Due to a rash of injuries and tragic pregnancies to their big girls, San Antonio is going to be desperate to add some size down low in this draft. Luckily for them, this epically strong draft is going to allow a fundamentally sound, Margaret Thatcher-type leader like Tianna Hawkins to fall to them in the 8th spot. Hawkins rebounds in her sleep, and rebounding is a key part of fundamentals, which are half of the Liebermann Equation. The Silver Stars hope that adding a solid fundamental force like Hawkins will allow them to continue to compete for the championship, year after year.





9. INDIANA FEVER - Kelly Faris, Guard, UCONN

Adding a woman's player from UCONN is the equivalent of adding a football player from Alabama or a bowler from Maryland-Eastern Shore. You know what you're getting from these excellent programs, and it can't hurt to add players who were brought up in an atmosphere that demands consistent success. Faris is no different. A tenacious, gritty defender, she's also fundamentally sound offensively and she can shoot that little ball they use quite well. It would behoove any team to add a player like this, and with no clear-cut choice here with Hawkins off the board, the Fever decide to do just that. Players like this are the types that really help a perennial contender like the Fever stay on top, as Nancy Liebermann probably likes to say.




10. LOS ANGELES SPARKS - Sugar Rodgers, Guard, Georgetown

A surprise pick here, as the Sparks select the lady Iverson, Sugar Rodgers. Sugar is just a natural scorer in the Iverson/Eddie House type of mold, and the Sparks here choose to go with flash. Sugs is a bit of a gunner, and she's going to have to become more fundamentally sound at the highest level of women's basketball, but her determination to get the ball in the hoop is quite impressive. It's very Margaret Thatcher of her.




11. CONNECTICUT SUN - Lindsey Moore, Guard, Nebraska

What? The team in Connecticut is called the "Sun"? Are they in a division with the Detroit Well-To-Dos and the Mississippi Tolerance? Well, regardless of their moniker, they are missing their top two guards this year due to season-ending injuries. They need somebody to step in right away, and at this point, the most likely to do that is Lindsey Moore from Nebraska. She's not the quickest or fastest or anything, but she's very fundamentally sound, she can lead the offense, and she can shoot a bit, too. Like Nancy Liebermann probably said at some point, "when in doubt, go for the fundamentals. Fundamentals are to the women's game what hepatitis is to the Hispanic population". Nancy Liebermann is kinda racist. But she's basically the Margaret Thatcher of women's basketball, and when she speaks, you listen.






12. MINNESOTA LYNX - Markel Walker, Forward, UCLA

The reigning WNBA champion Minnseota Lynx don't need much, so in this instance I think they are going to add a hybrid guard/forward in Markel Walker. Walker is a straight-up fundamental BEAST down low. A real Karl Malone type, and that's quite apt because the postal service hires a shit-ton of women these days. And Walker can really carry the letters, rain, sleet or perfect indoor women's basketball weather.

Walker is going to bang some bodies down in the paint and if these other girls don't like it, they can go play tennis. She's also quite capable of handling the little rock and running the offense from the wing. The kind of cog that can really help a championship team like Minnesota. Walker is going to make Minnesotans forget about whoever their last women's star was real quick.





Well, that's it, since there are only 12 teams in women's basketball. The Atlanta Dream don't have a first rounder, so fuck them. They can pick up some fresh young ladies in rounds 2 and 3. As always, please stay tuned to your source for hot WNBA action, Heat and Meat's Dripping Wet Sports Picks.



A's win 8-1

Not exactly how I expected the two teams to combine for 9, but, with the A's hammering the Angels 8-1, they did. And that's all that matters. That moves me to 13-5.

WNBA mock draft is coming up shortly.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

OVER






Easy over in the NCAA championship game, moving Meat to 12-5 A.F. (after football). Looked kinda dicey late in the first half, but then the runs started and that's all I needed.

Now, let's bet on baseball.

...looking....

...ok, found one I kind of like.

BET: OAKLAND A'S (AJ Griffin) @ LAA ANGLES (J. Vargas), OVER 8.0

The A's have been on fire, scoring runs in droves this season. The Angels haven't been, but they are certainly capable of it. Griffin is a highly regarded rookie/2nd year guy for Oakland, but he's just that...a young guy with an incomplete track record. Vargas is some dude I've never heard of. Think they can combine for 9 runs? I do.


Monday, April 8, 2013

YUUUUUU! And NCAA Basketball, Of Course

Me strike you out long time!

Damn sons, I expected Yu Darvish to mow down the Astros last week and break me out of my slump, but I didn't expect him to come within an out of perfect-gaming those sad sacks. Yu was cruising, but a high pitch count (he was clearly tired) forced him to go after hitters at the end. One of them, Marwin McWhothefuck, got enough to send one back up the middle and that was all she wrote. Wonder if you can bet on perfect games? Jk, you still would have lost.

So alright, I'm 11-5 now, I think. Maybe 11-6. Either way, slump is busted. 

Which means I'm always going to be right again, and with that in mind, let's get on that NCAA basketball championship game tonight!



Line on the game is Louisville -3.5. I don't know what I like there. I think Michigan wins, but I'm not the biggest college basketball person so I'm not sure enough to bet. If I had to, I'm taking Michigan plus the points. Moneyline is UM +155, which I think is another pretty good value bet if you think the Wolverines are taking this game.

So, instead of betting the line, I'm going to do what I typically do for the Penguins here and just take the over. These teams for the most part have scored 80-ish points a game. I look at this like I look at the UM-Kansas game, which turned into a shootout in the end. If any team gets up at all early, I think this game will go the same way. Louisville got behind against Wichita St on Saturday and just turned it on late. Trey Burke and Michigan are the same way. So an O/U of 138.0? A 69-69 game? I think we'll have that tonight.

MEAT'S PICK: OVER 138.0

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Slump Continues

AINT THAT SOME POOP

Alls I remember is Memphis leading by 5 early, and then completely sucking goat-taint the rest of the way. They lost by almost 20. F THEM.

New slumpbuster: whatever Heat says. Jk lololol Heat never posts anything.

Maybe I'll solicit Daddy Long Penis for his best bet. Nah, let's just cherry pick an NBA game.

...checking...

DAMN IT. NBA bets suck tonight. I'm not going to let Washington beat me again.

Ok, I got it.



SLUMPBUSTER BET: Texas Rangers and Yu Darvish -1.5 to beat Lucas Harrell and the Astros

The Rangers, behind Darvish (who's awesome), should put it on the damn Astros, who suck. LET'S BREAK THIS SLUMP.




Record: 10-5. Guh.

Monday, March 25, 2013

Slumpbuster


Gotta get off the schneid somehow

I apologize to the legions of bettors, those who depend on this meaty analysis, for having left you...without a dope game to bet to. I was sick for most of the last week and wasn't able to tell you to bet on Robert Morris over Kentucky (I'm not joking). But anyway, let's get off of this slump.

I'm zero for my last 3 or 4 or something. That is unacceptable. The absolute opposite of acceptable. This is the Washington Generals to the Harlem Globetrotters as acceptability. If acceptability were a child beauty pageant, my picks over the past week were Jon-Benet Ramsey. If acceptability were a plane, my pilot was Corey Lidle. This gotta stop, son.

So no getting cute, no multiple bets, and no hockey or NCAA shizz. I'm going into my wheelhouse, and that's NBA.

SLUMPBUSTER BET: MEMPHIS -2.5 @ WASHINGTON, MEMPHIS -2.5

Washington sucks, but they haven't sucked lately. So good for them. But a short little run doesn't make me think that they are turning a corner or something. They are still just "John Wall and a couple of guys", and who even knows with John Wall. He's committed multiple turnovers this season during pregame shootarounds alone. 

Memphis, on the other hand, is also hot lately. BUT, they are good. Like they've been good all year. And they play great defense, just like Indiana. That typically doesn't take a night off like offense is wont to do. 

So, Memphis should win, and I'm willing to take a chance that they do so by 3 or more. So get on board with Meat, cross your fingers, and hope to win some cash, brah.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Lazy Friday

(insert random picture of sports thing)

I'm 10-3, haven't bet in awhile, so let's just make a quick pick to end the 2 bet losing streak.

BET: LAL @ IND UNDER 190.5

Can Kobe Bryant and Danny Granger lead their teams to a 190-point night? I'd doubt it, even if they weren't hurt and were actually playing in this game. This one will probably end up 65-58. 

The end.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Chase-a da Money

Just practicing my "laying on a bed of green" move

 So, you may have heard, yesterday was the first day of NFL free agency, where teams trip over themselves to give out huge, backloaded contracts to players who won't live up to those contracts and will be cut in three years, only to get another similar contract from some other idiot team. In my 'hood, we call it "Portering". Actually, we don't. But we should.

Every year around this time, fans get pissed at their team's players when they leave to go elsewhere for more money. "No one's going to know your name in 5 years!". "Welcome to mediocrity!". "Greedy! Don't let the door hit you on the way out!". And all that shizz. And it's fuckin' retarded. "You must not care about winning!". Yeah, I guess Peyton Manning doesn't then, either.

Let's break this down. I am firmly in the chase the money camp. For one, you really only get one shot at the huge, guaranteed-money contract. Yeah, you can get a 5-year $35 million Eric Wright deal, but then you get cut after a year and see maybe $5 mil of it. The devil is in the details, and the details are the guaranteed money. That's all you are sure to get. People yell at players to honor their contract, but, basically - the next team that honors the full length of a free agent contract will be the first. Ask James Harrison or James Farrior or Joey Porter or your teams favorite players or Javon Walker or Adalius Thomas or Anquan Boldin or anybody. They almost never see the end of those big money deals. Ever. You think Peyton Manning's going to get all five $20 mil years out of Denver? I don't. Remember this because I'm going to use him in a second.

For the Steelers right now, that player is Mike Wallace. A guy who was given pure hell last year because he wasn't giving $8 mil worth of production on his $2.5 mil restricted free agent tender, which is just so free market. (Remember that too, because I'll use it later). He jumped at the money that Miami was throwing at him, and people are crushing him for it. The same people who say the Steelers are on a bullet train to a 6-10 season because the coach is incompetent and the line sucks. And the QB's a borderline retard. So Mike Wallace likely took money over a "ring". So what? Who the fuck cares? Let's just get into all of these arguments, bullet-point style:

• "You chased money over rings!" - Who gives a shit? This is a job. One thing I learned, a very hard truth about these guys, is that fans generally care a LOT more than the players do over losses. I learned this while valeting at a club that the players went to after games. I'm not saying they were all "HA! We lost! It was awesome!"...I mean, they were generally a bit more somber than they would be otherwise, but it wasn't a huge deal. It was a bad day at the office. Do you think Lamarr Woodley cried after they lost to Cincinnati last year? I don't. Did your Uncle Donny? I bet he was fucking losing it in his Black and Gold room. Probably weeping like a dude on Maury that just found out that he was the father, or maybe like a kid who's parents just got divorced and then killed each other in a gruesome murder-suicide. Basically, take the money and be set for life. Because the team's going to cut you in three years anyway. Would you rather have $30 MM and no rings, or $12 MM and be able to say "I won a Super Bowl championship!". For me it's easily the former. The only benefit in the latter is that when you run out of money, you can sell the Super Bowl ring for cash.

• "You only care about money, not winning" - Two things. First, the NFL is so hard to predict that you never really know who's going to have a shot, even a year ahead of time. Anybody see the 8-8 Steelers and 5-11 Lions losing out to the 11-5 Colts? This isn't like choosing the Royals over the Nationals. Secondly, show me a player that only cares about winning. And I don't mean by "taking less money". Peyton Manning, a guy wildly successful in both his long career and his off-the-field endorsement life, took $20 mil from the Broncos. TWENTY FUCKING MIL! So he chose a good team. You think that means he's purely committed to winning? If he were...and I mean, if he were 100% ONLY TRULY MADLY DEEPLY COMMITTED to winning, why not take...say, $1 mil? And let the team spend that $19 around him, building a better team overall and allowing Elvis Dumervil to buy one of his Buicks? Instead, Dumervil's about to be cut and the $20 million dollar man is going to throw away another postseason berth. This is why San Francisco and Seattle can be so successful - they have QBs on their rookie deals, and second round rookie deals at that. It's a huge advantage over teams like New Orleans and Baltimore, who have QBs who are supposedly committed to winning yet who take up a full fifth of the entire motherfucking salary cap. Quash that nonsense.

• "You're greedy! Do you really need all that money?" - Shut. The. Fuck. Up. Everybody in this world chases the money. And this is not a political rant, but I hear this from a ton of conservatives. If you're a flowers and rainbows liberal then...fine, make this point in between flute-led interpretive dance sessions. But how in the world can people rectify "you are making enough money, leave some for your team to sign a left guard you greedy son-of-a-bitch!" with "man, an extra 3% on billionaires is not fair! They worked for that!". Well, so did Dwight Freeney, so let him get his damn money. 

• "It's your job! If I made a million at my job..." - Ok. There's a reason you don't make a million at your job. Actually, there are a few. Let's get into it:

- The NFL is a $9 BILLION a year industry. Supply and demand. There is a market for paying players millions upon millions to win football games. Basically, with all of this information, you could probably calculate the value of a win. Baseball has (sabermetric calculations say about $5 mil or so per win, but I'm not sure of quite what that entails - seems ridic high). Your job probably doesn't, and if it does, it's likely not on the strength of you and 51 of your employees. 

- No one is paying to watch you work, no one is buying your Office Depot replica frock or your Jeff's Marina Sales Division replica polo, and it's probably much easier to replace you than it is to replace Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is probably the single greatest wide receiver on planet Earth. If I were, say, a lawyer, and I were the single greatest lawyer on the entire planet Earth and demonstrably so, I could probably get away with whatever the fuck I wanted to. Oh, and they'd pay me millions on top of millions. But at the moment, I'm writing a blog about NFL contracts on a free hosting service. I'm easier to replace than Anquan Boldin, and even he almost got cut. 

And finally, professional sports ain't really a free market. In the NFL, if you haven't been cut, you can't become a free agent without 4 years of service time. You get drafted to a job and you get a contract due to your slotting. Plain and simple. You don't really get a choice to "honor your contract". You take the contract that a bunch of dudes you don't know bargained in a room years ago to keep the government off their backs about anti-trust behavior. If you don't like it, too bad. Then after three years you get a restricted free agent tag. The team tells you what you are getting, you either take it or retire, and provisions generally restrict other teams from offering you a deal you could get on the open market. Now compare that to the real world, where you choose your job, and you can just quit at any time and go work somewhere else down the street. Imagine Mario Williams quitting the Bills and going to work for the Jets. Crazy, right? It ain't the real world. So stop comparing it to the real world.

The point is, you get one shot in your professional sporting life to make all the money you can make to not only set you up for life if you are responsible with it (yeah, yeah, that's another story altogether), but enough to set your family up for generations. It makes all the sense in the world to chase they money while you can. You can tear an ACL tomorrow pretty routinely in these jobs (RG III if he doesn't completely heal up is going to make far less than he would as a healthy RGIII). You can blow out an achilles (Fred Davis did a few weeks before becoming a free agent, cost him millions). It's a job, people. It's 2013. Get used to it.




Friday, March 8, 2013

So Yeah, This Guy is in Charge of an Actual MLB Team

Hello, people with pens


Ned Yost. Manager of the Royals. Kinda suckish at managing. Said this:

This was going to happen earlier, but the Royals were just playing too well. …
“It’s not an experiment, but we want guys to be versatile, and those guys, we think, can handle it,” Yost said before Thursday’s 12-2 loss to the Mariners. “I was waiting until we lost a game before I started experimenting a little bit, but what the hell, we’d better just go ahead and start doing it.

Are you shitting out of your fucking dick, Ned? You were holding off on implementing your plan for spring training because you didn't want to mess up you win streak? YOUR SPRING TRAINING WIN STREAK?

Listen. I know you've heard this shit before, but listen fa rill. THESE GAMES MEAN NOTHING, NED. They mean nothing at all. They don't count. They don't give you a tiebreaker. They don't matter for draft picks. They don't matter for anything. They are completely meaningless. Devoid of meaning. If they were a food, they'd be mustard-glazed air. If they ran for President, they would win zero electoral votes, capturing the delegates from the District of Nowhere. If they were a live celebrity, they'd be Whitney Houston. THEY MEAN FUCK-ALL.

Let me show you what they mean. Read this article from 1996.

The Pirates split another spring training "doubleheader yesterday". They lost to Kansas City, 17-14, but Mark Johnson beat Joe Vitiello, 9-7, in the RBI battle between the team's first basemen.
Yes! That shit was actually written! The game was SEVENTEEN TO FUCKING FOURTEEN. The star attractions where MARK JOHNSON and JOE VITIELLO. There's a reason you don't know who the fuck they are...because they sucked at baseball. They were awful. And if you read more, Mark Johnson used to dominate spring training. It was a running thing around Pittsburgh. He batted like .450 in spring training. Every year. Then the season would start, and he was still Mark Johnson. HE COULD NOT STOP BEING MARK JOHNSON. No matter what he tried, no matter how awesome he was in the spring hitting off Grover McSlurveball, he could not stop being Mark Johnson. His Mark Johnson-ness was always 80 grade. He was consistently Mark Johnson. No player ever topped him in that category.

I just heard of Joe Vitiello when looking up Mark Johnson spring archives, but I'm sure you could say the same for him. Needless to say, Mark Johnson always got our hopes up in spring, then continued to suck yearly. And I'm sure he's not alone in that category.

So, that's spring training for you. When I watch spring training games, which I really don't, but when I do...I don't even know what to look for. I watch them because it's the Buccos and baseball's almost starting and that's exciting. I guess I look to see if Alvarez is hitting hard, but he's really not, and I don't give any semblance of a fuck. When I look at gamecast and see that the Pirates are getting blasted and walking in runs, I'm all like, "eh". When spring training is on, and I'm watching it, and I get a little hungry but not really, I go make some soup from a can or something because SOUP FROM A CAN IS MORE IMPORTANT, EVEN WHEN I'M NOT REALLY HUNGRY, THAN SPRING TRAINING BASEBALL.

Now, this may seem innocuous. But it's not. This guy, Nedrick "The Entertainer" Yost, is paid to guide his franchise through games. He's there to make the right decisions and put dudes in position to succeed and what have you. And this is the way he thinks! That is what's troubling for Royals fans. Thoughts like this permeate his mind! I'm of the popular school of thought that managers can't really win games so much as they can lose them. And this guy is grade-A lose games material.

Let me see how I bet them in my over/unders:

Kansas City Royals 79

I don't see it. What the fuck are they doing raiding the farm to build up a 72-win team? They are still starting Jeff Francouer. Another Cleveland type pick in that I'm not too confident but gut feeling, I don't see it. I hate the AL Central. Least favorite divish.

UNDER - 1 star
Yep. I might bump that shit up to 6 stars. I might make a fuckin' constellation with all the stars I am b



FRIDAY SONS






Thanks for nothing, Montreal. Those dicks got blowed the fuck out by the Islanders, who suck. That's why I bet against them. Their level of suck. That was why. Guh.

TOTAL: 10-3

Bets for tonight:


BET 1: Washington @ Brooklyn, Brooklyn -5.5

I don't love this one, but then again I don't love much tonight. Brooklyn is decent and they've done really well for me as underdogs. I haven't tried them as a favorite, so let's get it tonight.

Washington looks bad but I don't think the really are that bad, so this one's like an "I'm bored and it's $5" bet. Wouldn't put the college fund on this one.


BET 2: Houston @ Golden State, Houston +2

It's in Golden State, but the Warriors have been struggling and Houston has been doing good things for me when I take them, so let's give them a chance to lose by 1. Or win!


BET 3: Winnipeg @ Florida, Winnipeg -120

Winnipeg is ok. Florida is garbage and only seems to beat the Pens. Probably because the Pens refuse to play defense. Well, if you do play defense, the Panthers attempt to bore you into a loss. And they are rarely successful. Even when they're good, they suck. I hate this team so much. So I'll bet against them.


BET 4: Chicago @ Colorado, Chicago -150


Uhhhh....Chicago is 21-0-3. They haven't lost a fuckin' game. They are insane. They are last year's team with goaltending. Colorado, on the other hand, is under .500. Just sayin', I'll take my chances.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

It's Been Awhile

I'm sorry that I left you without a dope beat to step to


Ok. Last you saw me I was suggesting losing spring training baseball bets. Let's not bet on spring training baseball anymore. That drops me to 10-2 (yeah, I hit some hot bets since but I didn't put them on the blog so they don't count).

Unfortunately for today, there are only three NBA games and one (OKC @ LAL) doesn't even have a line. If it does I may jump on that, but for now I'm out of luck. NBA bets have become my bread and butter. They are so easy. I am wrecking them. I DON'T EVEN WATCH NBA GAMES. The oddsmakers just apparently suck at making odds, which is weird because that's basically their only job. Hey Jeff, get me some odds that don't suck! Oh, wait. No. You've got the 76ers favored over the Pacers. Nice job, Jeff. I'm sure nobody will figure that one out.

So let's look into the world of hockey. I don't really like hockey bets but that's all we gots for tonight. I just need to find one. Come on, hockey, give me a bet that doesn't suck!

I've decided onnnn.......

BET 1: MONTREAL @ NY ISLANDERS - MONTREAL -1.5, +250

Of all the line bets (I don't like the straight up bets because I seem to have lost interest in non-Penguins hockey), this one looks the most likely to hit. NYI sucks and is owned by every team that isn't based in Pittsburgh. Montreal is good. They aren't exactly a blow-you-out team, but I think there's a better-than-40% chance they win this game by 2 or more (winning this bet 40% of the time would have you breaking even). So let's just take this shot in the dark and hope for the best.

Aloha!

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

I'm Going to Bet on Spring Training Baseball.


I'm becoming a degenerate.

First, recap of yesterday - only saw one bet I realllllly liked, and that was Brooklyn Nets PLUS 2 POINT F-ING FIVE at New Orleans. NOLA sucks. Brooklyn was killing them early, somehow let them back in, but held on for the win. Pretty easy money, I'd think.

That moves me to 10-1.

As far as tonight, there aren't many games going and I didn't find anything I really wanted to pull the trigger on (although if you want to take some action there are a few NBA underdogs that look good and I also like Orlando to beat Sacramento at home), so I went outside of the box.

Today, the Rays are playing the Pirates in a spring training game at 1:05. The Rays are starting basically a triple-A lineup. And pitching some guy. The Pirates, on the other hand, have most of their starters in and are sending AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez and Gerrit Cole out there today. At -115 straight up, I had to jump.

So let's see how this goes. SPRING TRAINING BASEBALL! Do not catch this particular fever.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Finally lost

Damn it, Indiana's crazy runs on Friday pushed that game over and I finally have a mark in the loss column. OKC over and NHL home goals -1 both hit, so that 2-1 night brings me to 9-1 on the year.

I'm kinda hungover again, so I'm keeping it brief. The Nets are getting 2.5 points in NOLA, and I think that's stupid. So I'll take them Brooklyn Nets +2.5.

If I recover tomorrow I'll make an NFL mock draft. Peace.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Meat's Going to Break the Sportsbook

Boom.

The Spurs won going away last night against the Clips, bringing me to a perfect 7-0 since I started tracking post-NFL bets on here. This streak still has me being conservative about bets, so I'm not going to throw out a 5-pick Friday or anything.

But let's see what we have.


BET 1: MINNESOTA @ OKC THUNDER - OVER 205.0

I've been hitting OKC overs all season, so why not take another? This has 115-98 written all over it. Ride them points.



BET 2: DETROIT @ INDIANA - UNDER 189.5

Annnnnd I've been hitting Pacer unders as well. Detroit is terrible, and seems to be a lower-scoring team that plays some D. Pacers play lockthefuckdown D. This one will end something like 30-28.



BET 3: NHL HOME TEAM GOALS -1

Florida plays in Pittsburgh, where they've been terrible. Chicago is awesome and hosts San Jose. Vancouver goes into Nashville and is basically a toss-up. I don't like taking Pitt -1.5, but I do like home teams outscoring road teams. More of a fun bet than the 2 above, but I'm pretty confident in it.



So that's all we've got for today. Enjoy your weekend and make sure to follow @ninjakittieskb for updates on hot SOUTH FLORIDA KICKBALL OPEN 2013 action!!!!!!!!1

Running total: 7-0

Thursday, February 21, 2013

MLB OVER/UNDERS

Pedro's going to hit 50 this year. Assuming he makes contact 50 times.

Ahhh, that time of year. MLB over/under win totals for 2013 came out! Actually, they came out last Friday, but I'm just finally getting around to them. 'Cause I have a fuckin' job, brah.

Anyway, let's go. I'll give each prediction one (low), two (med.) or three (high) stars based on my confidence in the pick.


- Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5

Arizona was 81-81 last year. Perfectly average. So you'd think it would be easy to just look at the numbers and see if they over- or under-performed last year, factor in a regression to the mean, and collect your winnings. But not so fast! Arizona hopped all up on the grit express and shipped out basically all of their talent for gritsters. Guys who play the game the right way. Guys who eat, breathe and ejaculate baseball. Those guys. The ones you build champions around.

However, in moving Justin Upton, they didn't get a return of prospects like you'd expect. Instead, they got a mix of decent players who play positions of need. While they shipped out Trevor Bauer, he really wasn't a part of last year's team. They also added Brandon McCarthy. They get to play the Rockies a lot. Who knows what to expect of the Dodgers. I can't see SF doing what they did again. I actually like this team winning, say, 84 or so games, being in contention late, and having the Joe Morgan gritster types cumming all over themselves about how you can only judge baseball players with your eyes and you need guys that love baseball and sleep with baseballs shoved in their asses. I know this is going to happen.

OVER - 2 stars


- Atlanta Braves 86

The recipients of the Upton deal, the Braves created a hole by including Prado. The outfield is stacked out of their minds, but...without Bourne, exactly how much did they improve by signing Beej Upton? Did they improve at all? Will they continue to throw lights out on the mound?

Well....I think so. They are the Braves. They always fucking do. They play in a division that includes the Nationals and a bunch of shit teams after that. Well, Phillies are iiiiite. They play the damn Mets and Marlins on the reg. They should win over 86, I think. I see Jason Heyward going off. OVER.

OVER - 2 stars



- Baltimore Orioles 76.5

Hmmm. Vegas didn't fall for their miracle season last year. Kind of thought this would be an easy one.  They won 93 games last year and it was a complete fluke based on one-run games but, I mean, 76.5? The offense last year was not a fluke. They have a bunch of good-hitting 20-somethings in their lineup. It's the pitching that concerns me. It wasn't great but it was average, however, it's full of no-names. It's not a bunch of league average pitchers who league averaged their way through a season league average-ally. It's a bunch of sucky starters who fluked their way to league average and won a bunch of one-run games with a bullpen that was lights the fuck out. Fangraphs had a post recently that showed that teams like this, teams that basically win off of the strength of a lights-out bullpen tend to regress mightily the following seasons. Remember when the White Sox won the World Series off that shizz? And seriously, look at Baltimore's pen from last season. It was lights out. The top 5 guys there threw 331.5 innings of basically 2.45 ERA baseball. That's like 22% of the entire total innings the team pitched. That's insane. It's going down.

But....76.5? That's too low. I see Baltimore as a 78-82 win team that overachieved. The division is going to be somewhat down again this year compared to previous years (outside of the Blue Jays, who went crazy this offseason). This isn't the 2009 AL East they are playing in. I'm taking the over again.

OVER - 2 stars.



- Boston Red Sox 79.5

 A large-market team, actually rebuilding. Now, while they did hover around .500 last season until a spectacular collapse down the stretch, I still don't think there's anything to be afraid of on this roster. I'm going to take an under on them.

UNDER - 2 stars


- Chicago Cubs 72

 I didn't see the Cubs being good last year. I don't see them as good this year. I don't see them as good next year or the year after or the year after. They have some guys coming up but most of their prospects seem to have failed to live up to expectations (that's what most baseball prospects do). I think they win somewhere in the 60s again, although it's tough to be thaaaat sure in the NL. The Central is a bit tougher this year with no Houston, though. So let's under them up as well.

UNDER - 2 stars


- Chicago White Sox 80.5

White Sox! I actually followed them last year. Now, there was another Fangraphs post about how the Sox have consistently, over the past 7 or so years, exceeded pre-season expectations. But I'm going to chalk that up to relative coincidence. Because I think this team falls flat on it's face this year. This is probably my MLB over/under sizzler. It's dripping wet.

For the first third or so of the season, Paul Konerko was basically Hall of Fame. Like, he was Stan fuckin' Musial through the end of June. Adam Dunn earned comeback player of the year before the All-Star break. The pitching was great - Chris Sale was a normal-year ROY candidate and finished 6th in the Cy voting. Peavy was uninjured and threw 220 innings of 120+ ERA+ ball. Jose Quintana? Gavin Floyd? None of this is going to happen again. AJ Pierzinsky had a career year. He's gone and wouldn't come close to duplicating it again if he weren't. This team started to sink down the stretch last year, and now they are all a year older and that slippage is going to continue hardcore into this year. This team is going to BLOW. I'm gonna put actual monies on this one.

UNDER - 3 STARS



- Cincinnati Reds 88.5

This team is as good as advertised. Yeah, the pitching could regress, and Chapman is no longer in the 'pen so they'll play far fewer 8 inning games, but they do get Votto back healthy and they add Hee-Sop Choi and they get Chapman as a starter and they play the Cubs a lot and I think they win 90 again. Unless Cueto is hurt for reals and Bailey regresses and Bronson Arroyo....ahhhh fuck it I like them, let's just get that hot, sexy over.

 OVER - 2 stars


- Cleveland Indians 77.5

 No idea what to think of them. They blew ass last year. They were good at the very start of the season but then they fell apart (man, the AL Central was awful). Their pitching is AWFUL. Awwwwwfulllll. Yeah, they added some nice hitters to their lineup and stole Trevor Bauer from the DBacks for a light-hitting all-glove shortstop, but is it enough? I don't know. I don't think so but I'd save my money.

UNDER - 1 star



- Colorado Rockies 71.5

This team sucks. How are they going to win 70 games? How? Someone please explain it to me. Actually, I'll let Vegas explain it to me. Money talks, bitches!

UNDER - 3 STARS

*2/22/13 correction: wrote OVER instead of UNDER. Clearly, I want the under on these douchers.




- Detroit Tigers 90

Detroit 'underachieved' last regular season and 'slept-walked' their way to an '88-74' regular season record. While Cabrera won't win the triple crown again, the rest of them (and no more Delmon Young) should pick their games up and hit 90 wins pretty easily. Especially given the way the rest of the division sucks. I expect the pitching staff to be better as a whole, too. This is like a 2.5 star pick.

 OVER - 2 stars



- Houston Astros 59.5

Fighting Miami for worst team ever. Playing in the AL West. Getting beat down on the reg. I think they win 7 games. 2.5 star pick.

 UNDER - 2 stars



- Kansas City Royals 79

I don't see it. What the fuck are they doing raiding the farm to build up a 72-win team? They are still starting Jeff Francouer. Another Cleveland type pick in that I'm not too confident but gut feeling, I don't see it. I hate the AL Central. Least favorite divish.

UNDER - 1 star



- Los Angeles Angels 89.5

 Underachieved to 89 wins last year. Added Hamilton, but will Trout still be all-world? Will Pujols show up on time this year? I don't know. I think under but it's not a very strong conviction.

UNDER - 1 star



- Los Angeles Dodgers 90

Fuck these jokers. I love watching them crash and burn. They added every piece last season and still sucked down the stretch. Couldn't even get a wild card? So you think adding Grienke is going to put these sad sacks over the top? I bet they disappoint again. At least I hope they do. Keep batting Dee Gordon leadoff, Mattingly. He's fast!

UNDER - 1 star



- Miami Marlins 64.5

Way, wayyyyyyyyy under. This is not an MLB team. This is a joke. This team was a joke last year and this year is the punchline. How in the fuck are they going to win 65 games when actual legit MLB teams didn't win 65 games last year?  This is a travesty. They may be worse than Houston. No one is going to pitch to Stanton. He's going to hit 14 HRs with a .748 on-base percentage. And then he'll be stranded every inning by Logan Morrison's annoying ass. I unfollowed Morrison on Twitter because he is such a d-bag.Stanton may wish that Morrison un-follows him in the lineup.

UNDER - 3 STARS



- Milwaukee Brewers 79.5

Guhhhh. This team sucked last year, pretty much gave up on the season, and STILL won 83 games. They just hit lights out in their park, no matter who they have in the lineup with Braun. Assuming he's not suspended for doing steroids again. I know Corey Hart is out for a bit and their pitching is a bit of a question mark but they always win 80 games and should do it again.

OVER - 2 stars




- Minnesota Twins 64.5

I don't know. Based on the fact that I have everybody else in this stupid division collapsing (well, outside of Detroit), I should expect a slight bump for Minnesota, right? Sure.

OVER - 1 star




- New York Mets 74

 They won 74 games last year, and they are going to suck harder this year. Why not even re-sign Scott Hairston for the $2.5 mil a year that he wanted? And no Dickey? He won like, 30% of their games last season. Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey had better be as advertised. I'm taking that under.

UNDER - 2 stars.



- New York Yankees 86.5

Taking the over just based on Yankee-ness. They shouldn't be anything special but they should probably find a way to win 87. Right? No Swisher, no A-Rod, no....whoever the fuck else...ahhh they always win I'll just take a win.

OVER - 1 star



- Oakland Athletics 83

I don't think they were that flukey last year when they won 94. Losing McCarthy hurts, and Reddick may not hit like he did last year, but Cespedes should take a huge step forward and they also get to play the Astros a lot. I'm only giving this a star because of how crazy unexpected last season was but I do think they'll win at least 85.

OVER - 1 star


- Philadelphia Phillies 81.5

81-81 last year, in a disappointing season. Now they have a healthy-ish Howard (who is overrated but should still help), a Chase Utley that says he's better now, and an adderall addict at catcher who exploded onto the scene offensively last season. Can he do it again? Maybe. They should go over .500 at least. Unless, of course, they give Delmon Young 600 ABs. They probably will.

OVER - 2 stars



- Pittsburgh Pirates 79

Fuck. The Buccos. I expect them to break the under-.500 streak this year, making this an obvious over. They added a lot of depth to the pitching staff. The young hitters are a year older and more advanced.

But...they collapsed two years in a row. 2011 made sense but 2012 was a straight up fucking nightmare collapse. There's a chance Andrew McCutchen put up a career-year that he'll never duplicate. I am only giving them one star, because, well....they are the Pirates.

OVER - 1 star



- San Diego Padres 74.5

They seem to have themselves a decent team but still only won 76 last year. One of their young guys was just suspended for 50 games. I don't know. I expect them to win more than 75. If even just because, well, they should.

OVER - 2 stars



- San Francisco Giants 86

I don't know how they do it. I don't think they'll do it again. But 86 games isn't "it". Will Lincecum continue to suck? If he doesn't, that will make up for Zito going full-Zito in 2013. I guess I'd have to say over. But with next-to-no confidence.

OVER - 1 star




- Seattle Mariners 76.5

Justin Upton saved Jack Z from himself, and they may have gotten a smidge better this offseason. Maybe. However, I don't think the rest of the division is as good this year as it was last year. Plus Houston comes into town. Assuming King Felix doesn't fall apart, they should win more than the 75 games they won last year.

OVER - 2 stars



- St. Louis Cardinals 85.5

They seem to consistently run between 82 and 90 wins. So this is a toss-up. And I'll hope for the Buccos sake that it tosses down. They have a bunch of great young players on the way, so in 2014 watch out, but in 2013 I'm gonna saddle them with a down year.

UNDER - 1 star



- Tampa Bay Rays 86

They won 90 last year, but needed a late hot streak to do it. They also traded away their second best pitcher, who even if he were still there would be hard-pressed to match his 2012 performance over 220 innings. Plus, Fernando Rodney randomly had like, the greatest relief season in history. Really, take a look at it. It was in-fuckin'-sane. Coupled with the loss of BJ Upton, and Wil Myers being a 2014-and-on pick up, I don't think having Evan Longoria healthy at the start of the season is enough. They may struggle to hit .500 this season.

UNDER - 2 stars




- Texas Rangers 87

This team lost a lot. And didn't really add anything. Half-hearted under, even though they get to play Houston.

UNDER - 1 star



- Toronto Blue Jays 86.5

I don't like super teams, but seeing other teams in the division slip, and all that they have added, I feel like they should easily win 87, no? Don't really need to rehash what they've done. Everybody knows they added the Marlins.

OVER - 2 stars



- Washington Nationals 90

And, finally, Washington. This team is stacked. Bryce Harper will be a year better. The pitching is young and awesome. Strasburg gets to pitch 700 innings this season. Another one that needs little explanation, and I see them fighting for 100 wins this season.

OVER - 3 stars



You trust Big Daddy Meat, don't you? Go spend yo' cash!