Monday, March 25, 2013


Gotta get off the schneid somehow

I apologize to the legions of bettors, those who depend on this meaty analysis, for having left you...without a dope game to bet to. I was sick for most of the last week and wasn't able to tell you to bet on Robert Morris over Kentucky (I'm not joking). But anyway, let's get off of this slump.

I'm zero for my last 3 or 4 or something. That is unacceptable. The absolute opposite of acceptable. This is the Washington Generals to the Harlem Globetrotters as acceptability. If acceptability were a child beauty pageant, my picks over the past week were Jon-Benet Ramsey. If acceptability were a plane, my pilot was Corey Lidle. This gotta stop, son.

So no getting cute, no multiple bets, and no hockey or NCAA shizz. I'm going into my wheelhouse, and that's NBA.


Washington sucks, but they haven't sucked lately. So good for them. But a short little run doesn't make me think that they are turning a corner or something. They are still just "John Wall and a couple of guys", and who even knows with John Wall. He's committed multiple turnovers this season during pregame shootarounds alone. 

Memphis, on the other hand, is also hot lately. BUT, they are good. Like they've been good all year. And they play great defense, just like Indiana. That typically doesn't take a night off like offense is wont to do. 

So, Memphis should win, and I'm willing to take a chance that they do so by 3 or more. So get on board with Meat, cross your fingers, and hope to win some cash, brah.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Lazy Friday

(insert random picture of sports thing)

I'm 10-3, haven't bet in awhile, so let's just make a quick pick to end the 2 bet losing streak.


Can Kobe Bryant and Danny Granger lead their teams to a 190-point night? I'd doubt it, even if they weren't hurt and were actually playing in this game. This one will probably end up 65-58. 

The end.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Chase-a da Money

Just practicing my "laying on a bed of green" move

 So, you may have heard, yesterday was the first day of NFL free agency, where teams trip over themselves to give out huge, backloaded contracts to players who won't live up to those contracts and will be cut in three years, only to get another similar contract from some other idiot team. In my 'hood, we call it "Portering". Actually, we don't. But we should.

Every year around this time, fans get pissed at their team's players when they leave to go elsewhere for more money. "No one's going to know your name in 5 years!". "Welcome to mediocrity!". "Greedy! Don't let the door hit you on the way out!". And all that shizz. And it's fuckin' retarded. "You must not care about winning!". Yeah, I guess Peyton Manning doesn't then, either.

Let's break this down. I am firmly in the chase the money camp. For one, you really only get one shot at the huge, guaranteed-money contract. Yeah, you can get a 5-year $35 million Eric Wright deal, but then you get cut after a year and see maybe $5 mil of it. The devil is in the details, and the details are the guaranteed money. That's all you are sure to get. People yell at players to honor their contract, but, basically - the next team that honors the full length of a free agent contract will be the first. Ask James Harrison or James Farrior or Joey Porter or your teams favorite players or Javon Walker or Adalius Thomas or Anquan Boldin or anybody. They almost never see the end of those big money deals. Ever. You think Peyton Manning's going to get all five $20 mil years out of Denver? I don't. Remember this because I'm going to use him in a second.

For the Steelers right now, that player is Mike Wallace. A guy who was given pure hell last year because he wasn't giving $8 mil worth of production on his $2.5 mil restricted free agent tender, which is just so free market. (Remember that too, because I'll use it later). He jumped at the money that Miami was throwing at him, and people are crushing him for it. The same people who say the Steelers are on a bullet train to a 6-10 season because the coach is incompetent and the line sucks. And the QB's a borderline retard. So Mike Wallace likely took money over a "ring". So what? Who the fuck cares? Let's just get into all of these arguments, bullet-point style:

• "You chased money over rings!" - Who gives a shit? This is a job. One thing I learned, a very hard truth about these guys, is that fans generally care a LOT more than the players do over losses. I learned this while valeting at a club that the players went to after games. I'm not saying they were all "HA! We lost! It was awesome!"...I mean, they were generally a bit more somber than they would be otherwise, but it wasn't a huge deal. It was a bad day at the office. Do you think Lamarr Woodley cried after they lost to Cincinnati last year? I don't. Did your Uncle Donny? I bet he was fucking losing it in his Black and Gold room. Probably weeping like a dude on Maury that just found out that he was the father, or maybe like a kid who's parents just got divorced and then killed each other in a gruesome murder-suicide. Basically, take the money and be set for life. Because the team's going to cut you in three years anyway. Would you rather have $30 MM and no rings, or $12 MM and be able to say "I won a Super Bowl championship!". For me it's easily the former. The only benefit in the latter is that when you run out of money, you can sell the Super Bowl ring for cash.

• "You only care about money, not winning" - Two things. First, the NFL is so hard to predict that you never really know who's going to have a shot, even a year ahead of time. Anybody see the 8-8 Steelers and 5-11 Lions losing out to the 11-5 Colts? This isn't like choosing the Royals over the Nationals. Secondly, show me a player that only cares about winning. And I don't mean by "taking less money". Peyton Manning, a guy wildly successful in both his long career and his off-the-field endorsement life, took $20 mil from the Broncos. TWENTY FUCKING MIL! So he chose a good team. You think that means he's purely committed to winning? If he were...and I mean, if he were 100% ONLY TRULY MADLY DEEPLY COMMITTED to winning, why not take...say, $1 mil? And let the team spend that $19 around him, building a better team overall and allowing Elvis Dumervil to buy one of his Buicks? Instead, Dumervil's about to be cut and the $20 million dollar man is going to throw away another postseason berth. This is why San Francisco and Seattle can be so successful - they have QBs on their rookie deals, and second round rookie deals at that. It's a huge advantage over teams like New Orleans and Baltimore, who have QBs who are supposedly committed to winning yet who take up a full fifth of the entire motherfucking salary cap. Quash that nonsense.

• "You're greedy! Do you really need all that money?" - Shut. The. Fuck. Up. Everybody in this world chases the money. And this is not a political rant, but I hear this from a ton of conservatives. If you're a flowers and rainbows liberal then...fine, make this point in between flute-led interpretive dance sessions. But how in the world can people rectify "you are making enough money, leave some for your team to sign a left guard you greedy son-of-a-bitch!" with "man, an extra 3% on billionaires is not fair! They worked for that!". Well, so did Dwight Freeney, so let him get his damn money. 

• "It's your job! If I made a million at my job..." - Ok. There's a reason you don't make a million at your job. Actually, there are a few. Let's get into it:

- The NFL is a $9 BILLION a year industry. Supply and demand. There is a market for paying players millions upon millions to win football games. Basically, with all of this information, you could probably calculate the value of a win. Baseball has (sabermetric calculations say about $5 mil or so per win, but I'm not sure of quite what that entails - seems ridic high). Your job probably doesn't, and if it does, it's likely not on the strength of you and 51 of your employees. 

- No one is paying to watch you work, no one is buying your Office Depot replica frock or your Jeff's Marina Sales Division replica polo, and it's probably much easier to replace you than it is to replace Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is probably the single greatest wide receiver on planet Earth. If I were, say, a lawyer, and I were the single greatest lawyer on the entire planet Earth and demonstrably so, I could probably get away with whatever the fuck I wanted to. Oh, and they'd pay me millions on top of millions. But at the moment, I'm writing a blog about NFL contracts on a free hosting service. I'm easier to replace than Anquan Boldin, and even he almost got cut. 

And finally, professional sports ain't really a free market. In the NFL, if you haven't been cut, you can't become a free agent without 4 years of service time. You get drafted to a job and you get a contract due to your slotting. Plain and simple. You don't really get a choice to "honor your contract". You take the contract that a bunch of dudes you don't know bargained in a room years ago to keep the government off their backs about anti-trust behavior. If you don't like it, too bad. Then after three years you get a restricted free agent tag. The team tells you what you are getting, you either take it or retire, and provisions generally restrict other teams from offering you a deal you could get on the open market. Now compare that to the real world, where you choose your job, and you can just quit at any time and go work somewhere else down the street. Imagine Mario Williams quitting the Bills and going to work for the Jets. Crazy, right? It ain't the real world. So stop comparing it to the real world.

The point is, you get one shot in your professional sporting life to make all the money you can make to not only set you up for life if you are responsible with it (yeah, yeah, that's another story altogether), but enough to set your family up for generations. It makes all the sense in the world to chase they money while you can. You can tear an ACL tomorrow pretty routinely in these jobs (RG III if he doesn't completely heal up is going to make far less than he would as a healthy RGIII). You can blow out an achilles (Fred Davis did a few weeks before becoming a free agent, cost him millions). It's a job, people. It's 2013. Get used to it.

Friday, March 8, 2013

So Yeah, This Guy is in Charge of an Actual MLB Team

Hello, people with pens

Ned Yost. Manager of the Royals. Kinda suckish at managing. Said this:

This was going to happen earlier, but the Royals were just playing too well. …
“It’s not an experiment, but we want guys to be versatile, and those guys, we think, can handle it,” Yost said before Thursday’s 12-2 loss to the Mariners. “I was waiting until we lost a game before I started experimenting a little bit, but what the hell, we’d better just go ahead and start doing it.

Are you shitting out of your fucking dick, Ned? You were holding off on implementing your plan for spring training because you didn't want to mess up you win streak? YOUR SPRING TRAINING WIN STREAK?

Listen. I know you've heard this shit before, but listen fa rill. THESE GAMES MEAN NOTHING, NED. They mean nothing at all. They don't count. They don't give you a tiebreaker. They don't matter for draft picks. They don't matter for anything. They are completely meaningless. Devoid of meaning. If they were a food, they'd be mustard-glazed air. If they ran for President, they would win zero electoral votes, capturing the delegates from the District of Nowhere. If they were a live celebrity, they'd be Whitney Houston. THEY MEAN FUCK-ALL.

Let me show you what they mean. Read this article from 1996.

The Pirates split another spring training "doubleheader yesterday". They lost to Kansas City, 17-14, but Mark Johnson beat Joe Vitiello, 9-7, in the RBI battle between the team's first basemen.
Yes! That shit was actually written! The game was SEVENTEEN TO FUCKING FOURTEEN. The star attractions where MARK JOHNSON and JOE VITIELLO. There's a reason you don't know who the fuck they are...because they sucked at baseball. They were awful. And if you read more, Mark Johnson used to dominate spring training. It was a running thing around Pittsburgh. He batted like .450 in spring training. Every year. Then the season would start, and he was still Mark Johnson. HE COULD NOT STOP BEING MARK JOHNSON. No matter what he tried, no matter how awesome he was in the spring hitting off Grover McSlurveball, he could not stop being Mark Johnson. His Mark Johnson-ness was always 80 grade. He was consistently Mark Johnson. No player ever topped him in that category.

I just heard of Joe Vitiello when looking up Mark Johnson spring archives, but I'm sure you could say the same for him. Needless to say, Mark Johnson always got our hopes up in spring, then continued to suck yearly. And I'm sure he's not alone in that category.

So, that's spring training for you. When I watch spring training games, which I really don't, but when I do...I don't even know what to look for. I watch them because it's the Buccos and baseball's almost starting and that's exciting. I guess I look to see if Alvarez is hitting hard, but he's really not, and I don't give any semblance of a fuck. When I look at gamecast and see that the Pirates are getting blasted and walking in runs, I'm all like, "eh". When spring training is on, and I'm watching it, and I get a little hungry but not really, I go make some soup from a can or something because SOUP FROM A CAN IS MORE IMPORTANT, EVEN WHEN I'M NOT REALLY HUNGRY, THAN SPRING TRAINING BASEBALL.

Now, this may seem innocuous. But it's not. This guy, Nedrick "The Entertainer" Yost, is paid to guide his franchise through games. He's there to make the right decisions and put dudes in position to succeed and what have you. And this is the way he thinks! That is what's troubling for Royals fans. Thoughts like this permeate his mind! I'm of the popular school of thought that managers can't really win games so much as they can lose them. And this guy is grade-A lose games material.

Let me see how I bet them in my over/unders:

Kansas City Royals 79

I don't see it. What the fuck are they doing raiding the farm to build up a 72-win team? They are still starting Jeff Francouer. Another Cleveland type pick in that I'm not too confident but gut feeling, I don't see it. I hate the AL Central. Least favorite divish.

UNDER - 1 star
Yep. I might bump that shit up to 6 stars. I might make a fuckin' constellation with all the stars I am b


Thanks for nothing, Montreal. Those dicks got blowed the fuck out by the Islanders, who suck. That's why I bet against them. Their level of suck. That was why. Guh.

TOTAL: 10-3

Bets for tonight:

BET 1: Washington @ Brooklyn, Brooklyn -5.5

I don't love this one, but then again I don't love much tonight. Brooklyn is decent and they've done really well for me as underdogs. I haven't tried them as a favorite, so let's get it tonight.

Washington looks bad but I don't think the really are that bad, so this one's like an "I'm bored and it's $5" bet. Wouldn't put the college fund on this one.

BET 2: Houston @ Golden State, Houston +2

It's in Golden State, but the Warriors have been struggling and Houston has been doing good things for me when I take them, so let's give them a chance to lose by 1. Or win!

BET 3: Winnipeg @ Florida, Winnipeg -120

Winnipeg is ok. Florida is garbage and only seems to beat the Pens. Probably because the Pens refuse to play defense. Well, if you do play defense, the Panthers attempt to bore you into a loss. And they are rarely successful. Even when they're good, they suck. I hate this team so much. So I'll bet against them.

BET 4: Chicago @ Colorado, Chicago -150

Uhhhh....Chicago is 21-0-3. They haven't lost a fuckin' game. They are insane. They are last year's team with goaltending. Colorado, on the other hand, is under .500. Just sayin', I'll take my chances.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

It's Been Awhile

I'm sorry that I left you without a dope beat to step to

Ok. Last you saw me I was suggesting losing spring training baseball bets. Let's not bet on spring training baseball anymore. That drops me to 10-2 (yeah, I hit some hot bets since but I didn't put them on the blog so they don't count).

Unfortunately for today, there are only three NBA games and one (OKC @ LAL) doesn't even have a line. If it does I may jump on that, but for now I'm out of luck. NBA bets have become my bread and butter. They are so easy. I am wrecking them. I DON'T EVEN WATCH NBA GAMES. The oddsmakers just apparently suck at making odds, which is weird because that's basically their only job. Hey Jeff, get me some odds that don't suck! Oh, wait. No. You've got the 76ers favored over the Pacers. Nice job, Jeff. I'm sure nobody will figure that one out.

So let's look into the world of hockey. I don't really like hockey bets but that's all we gots for tonight. I just need to find one. Come on, hockey, give me a bet that doesn't suck!

I've decided onnnn.......


Of all the line bets (I don't like the straight up bets because I seem to have lost interest in non-Penguins hockey), this one looks the most likely to hit. NYI sucks and is owned by every team that isn't based in Pittsburgh. Montreal is good. They aren't exactly a blow-you-out team, but I think there's a better-than-40% chance they win this game by 2 or more (winning this bet 40% of the time would have you breaking even). So let's just take this shot in the dark and hope for the best.