Friday, November 30, 2012
This week pitted Heat and I against each other as to who to pick. I let Heat talk me out of Cincy last week into Indianapolis, and as I went through the write-up, I began to see that it was indeed the right choice. Sure, Cincinnati blew Oakland out. That happens. But sometimes Oakland hangs tough. They just didn't. That's why Cincy was also a good choice.
But with Indy, while I harbored no intentions that Luck and Co. would blow Buffalo out of the building, I was pretty sure that they'd win that game 9 times out of 10. Combined with 27% of people picking Cincy and less than 8% taking Indy, that's the type of week that shakes up survivor leagues. Same reason why I thought our call of Steelers over Chiefs wasn't the best for that week. EVERYBODY was riding a Steelers team that seems to generally refuse to blow bad teams out.
This week I championed a similar approach. I did not trust Dallas one bit, even at home over Philly. Hell, just two weeks ago Dallas almost handed us the league when they squeaked by Cleveland in OT. And Cleveland is not good. They are awful. If you saw them play Pittsburgh last week, you wouldn't have been too impressed. That's why I don't want to touch that game out in Oakland (Browns are now a 1.5 point favorite @ OAK)...I have no idea what to expect from two sorry-ass teams. Also wasn't too keen on trusting Carolina as KC has been somewhat feisty as of late.
So that left us to pick from Heat's choice of Baltimore over Pittsburgh and my choice of Detroit over Indianapolis. If you would have offered me a bet on Wednesday as to Ben Roethlisberger playing this weekend...I would have said he will play and I'd have taken it. Now he's out. And Pittsburgh's chances are now basically nil. Heat acquiesced to me this week because I'm so high on Detroit. The only thing I fear about Detroit is their dysfunctionality. The Titus Young-iness of their team. That Schartzy behavior. They should slaughter Indy. Like by 14. They are also a team that is only being selected by 1.4% of Yahoo users this week...which is huge, especially since people are all over the map with their selections. Most have used Dallas and can't use them this week, which explains the range of selections (obviously, if you have used Baltimore already, which many have, you'd throw down on Dallas if you were just playing by the book).
But I gotta stick to my guns. While I think the by-the-book (and clearly the best this week) selection here is Baltimore, I don't think you win playing by the book. The Steelers NEED this game. Baltimore is one of the worst 9-2 teams I've seen. I guess I'm clinging to that...there's like a 3% chance Pittsburgh and Batch somehow pull this out (maybe Tomlin is secretly planning to start Hoyer....please please pleeeeease). Heat and I play differently, as he's a little bit more conservative than I am while I typically like to stick to my guns and make selections like this. It's boom or bust. Last year in my other league I won in week 6. This year I was done in week 3. Feast or famine.
So it comes down to Detroit being a 1:00 game (I hate waiting for a late survivor game), the fact that I think they are a very safe pick if they even kind of show up, and the fact that no one is ridin' them Lions this week. When I break it down, it sounds very good to me. I would not trust either the rest of the way out, so there's no saving teams here.
I just hate how I strong-armed Heat into it this week and how I sabotage the entire season if my team Detroits it this week. But let's get it. LET'S ROAR, LIONS!
Posted by Business Horse at 3:46 PM
Thursday, November 29, 2012
PHILADELPHIA +10 @ DALLAS
In my weekly round-up, I chose Philly +9 over Dallas as a dripping wet pick. Now the line is up to Eagles +10 on Topbet and I've seen it as high as Eagles +10.5 on the internet. This pick is now SIZZLING.
I lost my sizzling pick last week on the strength of 47 Pittsburgh turnovers, so I'm 0-1. Let's break that shit immediately and start cooking some fucking beef around these parts.
Survivor write-up to come today or tomorrow. No one is picking tonight's Saints @ Falcons game (most people have used both teams anyway), so no rush.
This pick is approved by both HEAT and MEAT. So you know you can put all the beef on the grill for this one.
Posted by Business Horse at 12:37 PM
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
In 2010, I put down $25 or so on Green Bay at 25:1 odds to make it to the Super Bowl. This was after week 15, where they needed to win out and get some help from the Giants to even make it to the postseason. This was pretty much the only bet I won that year, but it won me $625 and led to about 2 hours of work trying to actually get a check from Bodog when I withdrew some of it. Had the Steelers to win that Super Bowl...that would have really put me in the money. Oh well. Win some, lose...well, most.
So this week, I put $25 down on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. +4000 odds, or 40:1. So if somehow, Ben Roethlisberger comes back, struggles the Steelers to the playoffs, turns everything around and ends up with the Lombardi...I win a cool $1,000! Yeah, probably better off playing Powerball. Oh well.
Other bets this week (I'm going low dollar amounts because I suck at betting and, well, I don't want to lose a lot of money):
• $10 on Philadelphia +10 over Dallas.
Already went over my rationale for this one. I can't see struggling Dallas beating Philly by more than 10 in that Greek amphitheater they call a stadium. Tony Romo is a living embodiment of tragedy and comedy. Nick Foles and Bryce Brown are gonna do this! By this, I mean lose by like, 3.
HEAT approved. Double down on this one.
• $10 on Carolina -3 over Kansas City
Game's in Kansas City, Kansas City isn't awful if they don't turn the ball over, but...it's the Chiefs, it's Brady Quinn, and there's probably a 50/50 chance that Carolina blows them out, let alone wins by three. I'll take my chances.
HEAT approved. Don't get too crazy with this one though.
• $5 on Houston -5.5 over Tennessee
Same as above. Pretty decent chance that Houston just straight up rolls over Tennessee. I don't like this as much as I like the others, so I only put $5 on it. That and I don't want to waste all of my money right off the bat. We'll see how I do this week before we start getting crazy.
• $5 parlay (to win $30) on:
Texas +11.5 over Kansas State
Georgia +7.5 over Alabama
Georgia Tech +14 over Florida State
Taking the big underdogs here to all cover. Was going to add UCLA +8.5 over Stanford as well, but decided against it.
HEAT'S VIEW: These are three great games to parlay. I think that K-State will cover the spread as well as the Tide. But I am a little biased with Bama. GT is a great pick with the points as well as UCLA, with the points, if anyone would like to substitute with what should be a good game.
Now, I don't watch much college football. The only game I'm really confident with here is the Texas-K State game. I'm not big on Texas, and I liked Kansas State a lot this year, but this just screams let down to me. This is still a tough match-up even if K. State were undefeated and not crying miserably into their flannel, and even then I'd say 11.5 is too much. Now, it's way too much. Hell, I think Texas wins straight-up. I talked myself into taking them on the moneyline here.
Georgia and Ga. Tech are just rumblings from people I trust, and so I figured I'd throw them in to make this bet worth something. Alabama is awesome, but Georgia is no slouch. They've been playing out of their minds lately. I think they have a decent chance to beat Alabama, and a very decent chance to lose by 7 or less.
Tech I have no idea about. I have a friend who lives in Vegas, went to Florida State, and loves Tech as a 14 pt underdog. Sure, they got stomped by Georgia, but I'm just not feeling FSU enough to think he's wrong. Actually, I pretty much hate FSU. So whatever, I'll just take his word for it.
• $5 on Texas +350 to win $17.50
I just love this line and talked myself into this bet while I wrote the above passage. This shit is fun! Let's just hope I don't lose every bet so I can keep playing.
HEAT: Happy betting. Don't beat your loved ones!
Posted by Business Horse at 12:19 PM
And that is the WORST kind of player for your team. Because he fucks up the entire roster.
The problem with Shonn Greene is that he does have the occasional week where he blows up. This year he put up 30 against New England. He's the 15th rated RB all year. But that's only because volume. Shonn Greene makes you start him every fucking week because you don't know when he's going to finally have that good game. 4 points, 3 points, 7 points, FUCK HIM. I benched him the week of the Indy game. I hate him. I hate everything he stands for. I want to quit being a starting NFL running back. I hope he wins Powerball and quits playing NFL football.
Shonn Greene hamstrings you. Almost every week, there's a guy on your bench that's a better option. But nooooooo, Shonn Greene might blow up this week! Dwayne Bowe is a Shonn Greene. Ryan Mathews is quickly becoming a Shonn Greene. I have all three. I got all three late. They screamed value. THEY ARE NOT VALUABLE. Rashard Mendenhall has worked himself into a Shonn Greene.
I picked up Bryce Brown but quickly dropped him so Heat could have him. It was kind of a dick move to pick him up (Heat asked me about running backs and I didn't think he'd be available), but then I figured, ehhh, I have starting running backs and I don't even know if McCoy will be out until it's too late (then they go and rule him out on Saturday) and I can't really use him so I'll release him and let Heat have him. I mean, I had Donald Brown and Shonn Greene! Surely one of them will at least do what Bryce Brown might do.
Fuck. Me. With Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski out, I'm pretty much done. And it's all because I drafted Shonn Greene.
Posted by Business Horse at 11:14 AM
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
After last week, I've got some new rules. My bets are either $0, $25, or $50. Be confident to throw down at least $25 or avoid said game completely.
So let's go. This week I'll use topbet.com for my lines.
NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) @ ATLANTA
I'm not the biggest Atlanta fan. I still think New Orleans is decent, even after SF took it to them and picked off Captain Birthmark for two pick-sixes.
A lot of teams have gone into Atlanta and taken the Falcons to the doorstep of defeat. And these have been fuckawful teams. Hell, even Peyton Manning and the Broncos did everything they could to give that game to the Falcons and they still almost blew it. So, I think New Orleans wins this game straight-up. Giving me 3.5? Hell yeah, I'll take that. This pick is DRIPPING THE FUCK WET.
MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +3.5, $50.
SEATTLE (+6.5) @ CHICAGO
Topbet doesn't have a line on this, so I'll use the one that Heat found. Chicago is just about a TD favorite.
Heat apparently loves Young Insulin, and while I don't love him as much as Heat does, I do think he's done pretty damn well this year all things considered. The Bears do not block. Their line is a damn sieve. They are like the walls in the second quest of Zelda because you can just walk through them.
I bet against the Bears last week and they slaughtered Minnesota, right in my face. I'm tempted to do it again because the line is so big, but I can't. Seattle is not a good road team and Chicago keeps killing me. So I'm gonna leave this one alone this week.
MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -6.5, $0
EDIT: This was a Heat line, so it's completely fabricated. I'll update this later when the real spread comes out. If it's significantly lower than Seattle +6.5, Chicago may start to sizzle.
EDIT 2 (Thursday): The real line is Chicago +3.5. I like that better. Chicago's been killing me, I'm gonna give them a shot this week.
MEAT'S UPDATED PICK ON THURS. 11/29: Chicago +3.5, $25
MINNESOTA (+9) @ GREEN BAY
Green Bay forgot to play last week against NYG, but I'm not going to hold that against them and apparently, neither is Vegas. I think this is way too much for a team that has not really blown anybody out at home this year. Jacksonville almost beat them in their own house. Minnesota is a young team but, after the Mark Chmura incident, Green Bay refuses to take advantage of young people in their own house.
I hate Ponder but I think the Vikings keep it within 9. Heat loves those big lines but I generally do not. I'll probably bet against all of them this week.
Actually, I changed my mind. I don't like this one so I'll save my fake money.
MEAT'S PICK: Minnesota +9, $0
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS (+7)
This one is tough. St. Louis is better but they aren't that good. San Francisco just tied St. Louis in SF but that's not to be expected.
So I'm just going to ignore that. San Francisco IS that much better than St. Louis, and I think they win by at least a TD. I am picking this bet now because it's a fucking fake betting blog, but if I were to bet for real...I'd wait to see that Kaepernick is starting for SF. If Alex Smith is starting, I probably don't touch this game because he has the ability to turn anything into a close game. But not in the good way. He's just simply not the best option and the sooner Harbaugh commits to Kaepernick the better for San Fran. He doesn't even have a cool nickname like Smitty or Cumlord. Think I'd bet against the Cumlord? Doubt it.
MEAT'S PICK: San Francisco -7, $25
ARIZONA (+4.5) @ NYJ
Do I need to explain this? The Jets are favored by 4.5? I don't care if they are playing inside of Rex Ryan's colon, I cannot throw money on a favored Jets team.
Ryan Lindley looked good last week when he wasn't throwing pick-sixes to Janoris Jenkins. I think he'll be better. And I think the Jets are disgustingly bad. Sanchez and company will struggle to move the ball on Arizona. And to not turn it over.
Dear Lord. Yeah, I'll take the points. (image from Deadspin.com)
MEAT'S PICK: Arizona +4.5, $25
CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY (+3)
This one's dripping wet. Kansas City losing by 3 would almost count as an upset.
Now...I know Kansas City's weakness is turnovers. And Carolina doesn't exactly have a stout D.
(No idea where Heat's lines are coming from, by the way...he has this one at -7.5????)
So, I should expect KC to keep it close or maybe even win. But I don't. Brady Quinn does not keep it close and maybe even win. He throws bounce passes that would make John Stockton's dick hard. You have to be pro-choice to even watch Brady Quinn play a full series. Which is usually three plays. Denver did basically nothing last week and still won by 8 in Kansas City. I bet on teams to show up and play at least their B games, and if both of these teams do so, Carolina should not have too much of a problem. This pick is dripping wet, yo.
MEAT'S PICK: Carolina -3, $50
INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) @ DETROIT
As I mentioned last week, Indianapolis gets throttled almost regularly on the road. And while I do hate the Lions, I did expect them to play well last week and beat Houston. They arguably should have. And Houston did not play bad by any stretch. So why should the Lions have any problem with Indianapolis?
Andrew Luck has had a great rookie season, but that's it. It is not a great season by regular standards. He got some help to beat Buffalo last week, which happened basically exactly how I thought it would, and exactly how most Colts home games have played out. So I'm going to bet on the norms holding this week and Detroit taking care of business easily at home.
This game is my choice for survivor. Less than 1.5% of Yahoo users are taking Detroit this week. Heat disagrees, so we'll have to discuss that before Thursday's noon deadline. But I personally love Detroit to win this matchup. Second choice is probably Carolina, for reasons detailed above. The reason I prefer this to Carolina for survivor? I think I'm better more on Detroit whereas in the other case, where I'm better more against Kansas City.
MEAT'S PICK: Detroit -4.5, $25
JACKSONVILLE (+6) @ BUFFALO
Jacksonville has been riding the arm of Chad "Downtown" Henne (feels so weird to type that) and they are looking like a real team. However, this is one of the games where Fitzpatrick has one of this few 400-yard plus, 30+ points for Buffalo game.
But...even if I assume this will happen, I am also going to bet on Jacksonville continuing to look like an NFL team. Against Buffalo's newly-upgraded, still sieve-like defense, they should be able to keep within 6. Basically...I'll just take the points.
MEAT'S PICK: Jax +6, $25
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI (+7.5)
Seriously Heat, where are you getting your lines? Unless otherwise noted, I can place these bets right now. Hell, I just took the Steelers at Topbet to win the Super Bowl at -4000 odds ($25 to win a G).
But as far as Heat's analysis, I concur. NE should roll over Miami.
MEAT'S PICK: New England -7.5, $25
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE (+5.5)
Heat, you need new lines. I thought there was an overabundance of double-digit lines there. Double-digit lines are somewhat rare in the NFL...hell, Denver only got 10.5 at KC last week.
Anyway, Houston is still playing well and Tennessee is still Tennessee. Jacksonville fell back to Earth a little bit last week but still handled Tennessee at home. Jax needed a herculean effort to force OT against Houston. I don't think Tennessee is capable of said herculean effort. Chris Johnson rushes for over 200 inches and Houston wins by at least a TD.
MEAT'S PICK: Houston -5.5, $25
TAMPA BAY (+7) @ DENVER
This is too much, I think. Vegas must really love the effect of the Denver air. Heat has this game at TB +3.5. The fuck, man.
I've loved Tampa over the past few weeks. I took them early last week when the line had them as a pick 'em against Atlanta. They had a decent effort and nearly pulled that game out. I think they are capable of staying within 7 against Denver, but I'm not wholly confident. I'm 25 fake dollars confident, I guess.
MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay +7, $25
PHILADELPHIA (+9) @ DALLAS
+9? Have yinz seen Dallas this year? PLUS NINE??? I know Philly sucks, but so does Dallas.
Now, Carolina's been losing but playing well. I figured they'd wax the struggling Eagles last night. But...these aren't the same struggling Eagles. Nick Foles can't throw a spiral but he's not fumbling and throwing picks. Bryce Brown is fumbling, but when he's not he's running all over teams. It's not the same Philly that we saw over the past few weeks. Now, they aren't great or anything, but they are good enough to stay within 9 of Dallas, even if they are playing at the Bed the Romo Shit. As I've said before, I don't see Dallas as having any sort of home field advantage. And I don't think it's through any particular fault of their own - I've just read that teams love going in there to play the Cowboys.
I'm not quite willing to make this pick dripping wet, but I will put 50 fake ones on it.
MEAT'S PICK: Philly +9, $50
NYG @ WASHINGTON (+2.5)
I don't think this spread is high enough. I don't see New York losing this game, and if they win by a field goal, I win on the spread.
RGIII is awesome. He was awesome in the first matchup against the Giants. But it still wasn't enough then and I don't think it will be enough now, even with Garcon back. This is the Monday nighter so if you think there's anything to big time pressure situations like that, you'd give that advantage to the G-men, I'd think.
MEAT'S PICK: NYG -2.5, $25
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO (+1)
As a Steeler fan, I kind of need Cincinnati to lose this one. And I think they will.
Basically, I'm going against my own advice and betting on the Chargers to NOT find a way to lose. I'm not sold by any stretch on the Bengals - they've been the next big thing since like, 200-fucking-4 now. First they were the bad boy upstart Bengals, and that blew up. Then they became the morally upstanding Bengals, and I loved those Bengals because they well-behaved themselves to 4-12 seasons. Then they became the power running Bengals, but they weren't good enough to pull that off and it lead to 10-6 at best, early playoff exit seasons. Now they are the young upstart Bengals, but since they aren't criminals it doesn't look to blow up this time. They do have AJ Green, and he's awesome. But...I think the 2005 Bengals wax this Bengals team. They aren't as talented as people think they are. They had a nice win against NYG, but the other two blowouts were against teams that get blown out in half of their games. The week before the NYG game, Heat and I gladly took Denver to beat them in their own house for survivor and never really thought twice about it. Even thought they only lost by a touchdown in the end. And it's not like Denver played particularly well that day.
I am not high on Andy Dalton. I am not buying the Bengals and will not until I have to. As this pick is based strongly on emotion both ways, I'm not going to attach any money to it. But I see the Chargers getting the win here as a slight home dog.
MEAT'S PICK: San Diego +1, $0
Cleveland-Oakland and Pittsburgh-Baltimore do not have lines, and I don't trust Heat's, so I'll come back tomorrow and throw those picks out there. Along with, I guess, anointing one of these bad boys as my sizzler of the week.
Posted by Business Horse at 5:53 PM
Week 12 brought a lot of ups and downs in the NFL and with Meat’s predictions. All I know is that some changes will definitely be made in Philadelphia. Andy Reid can’t even keep his own children alive let alone the Eagles playoff hopes. At least Meat and I stayed alive one more week in our survivor pool thanks to the Colts 20-13 win over Buffalo.
This week’s choice has already caused confusion for the dynamic duo. I have decided to rank my picks in order of confidence. Each week there are about 16 games played in the NFL depending on bye weeks. I will rank the games in order of how confident I am with my choice. The higher the number, the more confident I am that my choice will win. So let’s give it a go…Oh and I bet $5 a game...
#1 (least confident) New Orleans @ Atlanta
I could flip a coin in this matchup and feel satisfied with either side. NO has been playing well as of late despite having the worst defense in the league. Their secondary should be on Teen Mom. Sproles should be back and not limited to help an already unstoppable passing game for Brees. Atlanta has a better defense and has the home field going for them.
#2 Seattle @ Chicago
Beast Mode and RW3 bring their talents to Chicago to face the Diabetic Hurler and the Bears defense. Seattle is coming off an embarrassing road loss to face a tough defense at home. The chickenhawks better hope that the Bears play as bad as Urlacher’s acting.
#3 Cincy @ San Diego
Phillip Rivers is overrated and San Diego might be the best city to live for single professionals under 40, but I can’t stand their football team, except for their jerseys. The powder blue was the best look in the NFL before the Seahawks took that spot this season. Cincy is playing well as of late, even if it was just the Raiders. Expect the Dalton-Green express to continue rolling.
#4 Cleveland @ Oakland
Both teams suck and should just prepare for the draft. Wait, the Raiders can’t. They don’t have draft picks for the next two years. Thanks Carson, you slightly better Sanchez. I’m going with the Raid pieces on this one. Trent “Greased Pig” Richardson is having a great season, but I can’t see the Raiders losing to the Shit Browns at home. Beating the Browns this week should validate the first win vs Pittsburgh for the silver and black.
#5 Arizona @ New York Jets
A third string QB vs Arizona’s Lindley who passed for 300yds last week and no TDs in a loss. This game better not be on television in South Florida, or someone’s job should be terminated. This is as good a week as any to debate the Tebow situation in NY.
#6 Indy @ Detroit
Luck is on a roll. Them Colts kept Heat and Meat alive last week . The Colts are playing for a cure. If they win the Superbowl this year, they will amputate Luck’s arm and cure Leukemia! There’s no better reason to root for a team. Detroit looks good on paper, but when you throw all those high ego low talent names on the field they just kick people and forget what playing football looks like. Stafford will throw for 300 with 3 TDs and 2 Ints and Megatron will have a monster game, but it will all be for nothing.
#7 Jacksonville @ Buffalo
There have been Henne sightings the last two weeks in Jacksonville. It seems that Chad forgot how much he sucked. But it is nice to see someone finally throwing to DUI Blackmon. Buffalo says that CJ Spiller is going to get 60% of the carries this week, while Fred Jackson will get 40%. Thanks Buffalo for the inside info! With that type of strategy their only worry should be containing Mr. Shorts III.
Buffalo – 3.5
#8 New York Giants @ Washington
So, Eli has a tired arm right? This is the perfect game then. Washington’s defense is terrible. Bert 3 is playing out of his mind and he can’t get any help on the other side of the ball.
#9 Tampa Bay @ Denver
Where did Tampa come from? I’ll admit, I’m not a Freeman fan. I have never liked his game, but they are playing well this year with the help from DOUG. Doug just does what Doug does. You can’t stop him. Peyton can make any receiver relevant. This is a tough one, but I’m going for the upset this week.
#10 Carolina @ KC
Cam vs Brady Quinn. There is nothing else to say here. KC is terrible. They have a few moments where they look like a decent team, but then the other team realizes that they’re playing KC and can’t lose.
Carolina – 7.5
#11 Philadelphia @ Dallas (Heat’s Hot Fire of the Week)
This is the game that I’m in favor of picking for the survivor pool this week. Philly hasn’t shown anything all season, and although it’s a rivalry game and the Dallas play calling is crap, I think them Boys will pull off the win. It’s not a consensus pick, so we should be safe with that rule. Without McCoy and Vick this should be a must win game for Dallas, at home. If Dallas can’t win this game, they need to tear down that overpriced club they call a field.
#12 Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (Heat’s #2 pick of the week)
I’m surrounded by Steelers fans because of the company I keep. Meat would have the most accurate line on this game. I’m going with the Birds.
#13 SF @ St. Louis
SF has an actual QB controversy unlike the Jets arguing over which back up will end their season more gracefully. Smith will be back with the starters, but Kaep should get some playing time in this blow out.
#14 Minnesota @ GB
Unfortunately, I’m looking at this game purely from a fantasy perspective. This sucks, because I would usually give no thought to this game. All I’m hoping for is an AP injury that will take him out for next week. Rodgers is always someone to worry about, and is Sandusky like..Just too much for these kids in Minnesota.
GB – 10.5
#15 Houston @ Tennessee
Assuming that the Houston D gets the big dick they’ve been choking on the last two weeks out of their mouth, then they will win this game without a problem. Foster, Johnson, and Watt are just too much for Locker and the Titans.
#16 (most confident pick) NE @ Miami
New England is playing the Dolphins. I don’t care who is out for NE. It does not matter.
Since I had 225 fake dollars riding on the game, which is kind of cheap I know, and I won't do it again I swear, I'm not at an even $0. Probably would have lost about $50 in vigs but fuck vigs. Vigorice. Yep, looks like spellcheck doesn't gamble.
Terrible start to the blog with those dripping wet picks, which were about as dry as a Utah saloon. But I'll do better next week. And Heat will do something next week. Maybe.
Posted by Business Horse at 9:07 AM
Monday, November 26, 2012
Had a great day Thursday. Not so much on Sunday, as many of my sizzling picks burned. That's the thing with a sizzling pick - you get that meat ready too early and by the time Sunday comes around it's charred as fuck. Expect that single coming out from Gunpowder Jones, Bankshot and Wrench. CHARRED AS FUCK. We ready.
Anyways, let's take a look.
HOUSTON @ DETROIT (-3)
MEAT'S PICK: Detroit, $0
WHAT HAPPENED: I expected Detroit to win this game, but it was close to a coinflip. That and the fact that many games are decided these days by a field goal, hell, take the points. This game was and on my line, it was a push. Detroit played like they were going to win, but a shitstorm of shit shitted them in the face and they ended up Detroiting it away at the end. Vegas lines were DET -3.5, so you would have won if you put some action down on that line. Either way, my $0 bets are ones that aren't really meant to count, so even if it weren't a push I'm not counting it toward my total.
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS (-3)
MEAT'S PICK:Washington +3, $20
WHAT HAPPENED:Well, I took the points because Dallas is inconsistent as hell and I didn't see them winning by more than three. Turns out, they did JUST what we've seen from them all year...sucked early, got down big, came back but fell short in the end. In retrospect kind of an easy choice but I guess everything is easy in retrospect.
RUNNING TALLY: +20, 1-0
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS (+7)
MEAT'S PICK:New England -7, $30
WHAT HAPPENED: I bet that NYJ would be completely awful, because that's what the percentages suggested. They are completely awful more often than not. And on Thursday, they were a special brand of awful. Easy money.
RUNNING TALLY: +50, 2-0
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY (+10.5)
MEAT'S PICK:Denver -10.5, $25
WHAT HAPPENED:Denver sucked in this one. Kansas City actually played well in the first half, but missed out on touchdowns with some weird playcalling and ultimately fell to Denver 17-9. Denver went through the motions but it was enough to beat the middling Chiefs. Wasn't enough to cover the spread, though.
RUNNING TALLY: +25, 2-1
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE (-3)
MEAT'S PICK: Kind of Tennessee +3, $0
WHAT HAPPENED:Another one not meant to count, as I didn't know what to expect from the Jags. Gun to my head, I predicted they revert to the old Jags. However, they did not. Henne is still playing well and Justin Blackmon is still looking like an NFL receiver. Jags had to win by 3 and they did, winning 24-19. I hope you didn't place actual money on this game.
RUNNING TALLY: +25, 2-1
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS (-3)
MEAT'S PICK: Indianapolis -3, $10
WHAT HAPPENED: This bet was more against Buffalo than for Indianapolis, as Ryan Fitzpatrick simply isn't the answer. Sometimes he plays decently and throws the ball all over the place for like 400 yards, but he usually mixes in a pick or two that kills his team's chances. But, more often than not, he plays like John Skelton, throws for like 220 and a TD and leads a moribund offense to 17 points. So, I played the odds and figured he would put up one of those boring games. He did. This game was boring as hell but Indy got it done. I didn't have much faith in this one so I only put up $10. That will change next week - I'm killing myself with these money variables.
RUNNING TALLY: +35, 3-1
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI (-9.5)
MEAT'S PICK: Oakland +9.5, $30
WHAT HAPPENED: Oakland got ass raped. It's that simple. I thought Cincy might lose this game and I was just plainly wrong as fuck.
RUNNING TALLY: +5, 3-2
SEATTLE @ MIAMI (-3)
MEAT'S PICK: Miami, $10
WHAT HAPPENED: Took the East Coast home team and the points. Figured it would be decided by a field goal. It was decided by a TD, and the TD was Miami's. Good for them. Didn't like it at all so I only put down $10. I'm an idiot.
RUNNING TALLY: +15, 4-2
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY (PK)
MEAT'S PICK: Tampa -0, $50
WHAT HAPPENED: Thought Tampa had this game, but in the end they let Atlanta take it from them by a point. Saw some Tampa +1.5 lines as the game approached which would have given me a win, but I was going off a pick 'em line and have to stick to it. A crushing loss that I feel is going to beget more crushing losses to follow.
RUNNING TALLY: -35, 4-3. Over .500, losing money. I'm the best.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND (PK)
MEAT'S PICK: Pittsburgh +0, $100
WHAT HAPPENED: Putting my sizzling pick here to tie it into the next one. Basically, I figured Pittsburgh, even with a backup QB, was so much better than Cleveland that they would continue their streak of, what, like 19 wins out of their last 20 vs. the Browns? But I did not see them fumbling 6 times. That's just embarrassing. Then the Browns fumble one fucking time and the refs call it forward progress. This game was an abomination and, by virtue of it's closeness on an 8-1 turnover disparity, showed how bad the Browns were. That's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
RUNNING TALLY: -135, 4-4. NOICE
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO (PK)
MEAT'S PICK: Baltimore +0, $15
WHAT HAPPENED: I put the Steelers-Browns game above to say something about this one. While I did count on the Chargers doing their thing and finding a way to lose, I didn't expect them to do it like this. They just outplayed the hell out of Baltimore. There was no reason for Baltimore to win this game. Picking them was the wrong call. And yet, they fucking won. I think my call on the Steelers game was correct. And I think this one was incorrect. And yet this is how it turns out. Good thing I only put 15 fake dollars down! Fuck.
RUNNING TALLY: -120, 5-4
ST. LOUIS @ ARIZONA (-1)
MEAT'S PICK: Arizona -1, $40
WHAT HAPPENED: Thought this one was easy money. And Arizona looked good early. But there's no way you are winning a game when you throw 2 fucking pick-sixes to the same fucking guy. That ball must have been filled with weed the way Janoris Jenkins was going after it. I am pretty much out of fake money now.
RUNNING TALLY: -160, 5-5
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS (-1)
MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans -1, $15
WHAT HAPPENED: I figured New Orleans would win a close one here. Didn't see Drew Brees throwing two pick-sixes, but he did. San Francisco's defense is just awesome and they are very very very dangerous with Colin Kaepernick starting. Just plain wrong about this one.
RUNNING TALLY: -175, 5-6
GREEN BAY @ NYG (-2.5)
MEAT'S PICK: Green Bay +2.5, $50
WHAT HAPPENED: Surprised the Giants were favored, based on the direction each team was going. Then they just wax the fuck out of Green Bay. Green Bay tied it up at 7 early and were never heard from again. I am terrible at this but I'll come back strong next week, guaranteed! Not really.
RUNNING TALLY: -225, 5-7
So here's what I'm going to do. I've got $35 riding on Carolina tonight -2.5. Current line on topbet.com is Carolina -3. I'm going to put another $190 on Carolina -3. If this were real money, this is what would be known as a "gambling problem". But it's not, so I'm cool.
And yeah, I know there's vigs and shit, I'm just going to ignore that. Because this isn't real. So suck it.
Running total: -$225, 5-7 overall.
Rating: FUCKING AWFUL
Posted by Business Horse at 10:28 AM
Friday, November 23, 2012
I'll be your mom's favorite player!
Just saw that Carolina is getting 2.5 in Philly. I like that. I'd take the Panthers on a straight-up pick 'em line. There is no home field advantage when the home crowd despises their own team.
PICK: CAROLINA +2.5, $35
See you next week bitches.
Posted by Business Horse at 12:42 PM
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Alright, here's how I'm going to do this. Since I straight up ball, sons, I'm gonna pretend I have $1,000 in my gambling account. I don't have to spend the whole G right away; this is just to set a baseline.
So let's go through week 12 and see which matchups are just dripping wet with excitement!!!
(all odds come from sportsbetting.ag unless otherwise stated)
HOUSTON @ DETROIT (+3)
Alright, I didn't watch a snap of the Lions game last week, a close 24-20 loss to Green Bay. And I've heard that it was a game they probably should have won. But...I fucking hate the Lions.
Hate this team.
They are overrated as shit, Ndamowhatever Suh would rather beast on OL and hit QBs than actually stop a run right in front of his face, Matt Stafford has regressed about 8 steps, Titus Young is a dickhead, the coaches are fighting each other because Titus Young is a dickhead, Dominic Raiola is a talentless blowhard who mouths off about something every single fucking week about being disrespected because no one puts his 4-6 team at the top of the power rankings, and Jim Schwartz is the Reagan-esque tampon that trickles douche all the way down the roster from the top.
But Louis Delmas is coming back! Great! Louis Delmas is back in the building!
I know Houston got embarrassed last week by Jax (beating Jacksonville in OT is the equivalent of losing by 20 to an actual NFL team). I don't trust Matt Schaub like I once did, regardless of how many yards he threw for (he also threw an OT pick that should have lost the game). I know they got carved up by Green Bay in a match-up against an actual good football team. But I want to pick Detroit and just can't after thinking about it. I hate Detroit too much. Every time I think man, I think Detroit's gonna win this game, I remember how much I hate them. So I can't put a dollar down on this game. Save your money. This is one of Meat's Overcooked Beefs of the week.
PICK: None, fuck this shit. $0
IF I HAD TO: Detroit and the points.
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS (-3)
Another bone-dry beef of the week, it appears. Another tough week in the NFL. I have no idea what's going to happen in this game because Dallas has been so wildly inconsistent. Or I guess they've been Dallas as shit this year. Which Dallas do we expect? The one from the Giants game, where Romo threw like 8 picks in the first half? Or the one from the Giants game, where Romo rebounded for one of the best second halves I've ever seen him play? I think you get the point.
The Cowboys almost wrecked survivor for many people last week, ultimately winning in overtime against the Browns. Washington, on the other hand, finally played good defense and throttled the Eagles. However, it was Nick Foles's Eagles. Nick fucking Foles. I know Romo can suck but there's no way he goes down to the level of a Nick Foles, right?
I think RGIII will score some points. I think Romo will score some points. I don't think Dallas has any kind of homefield advantage whatsoever. So if I think the game will be decided by a field goal, I may as well take the team getting 3.
PICK: WASHINGTON +3, I'll say $20
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS (+7)
The Jets. THE JETS! God do I hate the damn Jets. Who knows what you are going to get?
Well, I think I do.
The Jets have showed up big against some bad teams this year to make it look like they are some kind of semblance of a decent football team. But against good teams, they've generally been awful. They did take the Patriots to OT in New England, but I'm thinking that was an anomaly. I think just last year they almost beat the Patriots in their first matchup and then lost the next by about 104.
So...I'm going to play the odds. I think New England, in most simulations, would pound the everliving fuck out of the Jets. And I don't bet on kick returns and fumbles, so I'll play the odds here. I'll take New England to run the score up all over the Jets and lose Brandon Spikes to a freak torn ACL on a late-game punt block.
PICK: NEW ENGLAND -7, how bouts $30
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY (+10.5)
Kansas City is garbage. They have no Dwayne Bowe, and even when he does play he doesn't really give a fuck once his team gets to 1-8. We're past the Dwayne Bowe gives-a-fuck part of the season. They should put on October 27th on every calendar, "Last Day Dwayne Bowe Gives a Single Solitary Fuck". He's given as many fucks in the past few games as Tim Tebow has ever gotten. If there were a company that baked "cream-filled Dwayne Bowe fucks", it would be Hostess. If you sent somebody out to fish for wide-mouthed Pacific Dwayne Bowe Fuckfish, it would be Laci Peterson. Oh, and Brady Quinn is making his triumphant, bounce-passy return to the starting line-up. Last time he started, he managed to throw a pick to Oakland and then get concussed basically before Dwayne Bowe realized that the game had even started. Fuck the shit out of this shitty-ass team.
"But Meat, how did they keep it close and almost beat Pittsburgh?", you may ask. Well...KC has some talent on their roster. They had an average offense (with Cassel before he stopped giving a fuck) and an average defense. They had just turned the ball over at a record pace. The Pittsburgh defense, however, refuses to force turnovers and has for the past 2 years. So it was one that I could see coming and as such wanted to take Seattle in survivor.
So a team with Von fucking Miller on defense? Good luck, Kansas City. I don't care that this is a divisional game, or that it's in Kansas City. Denver should roll all over KC.
PICK: DENVER -10.5, $25
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE (-3)
What the fuck is this game? Why is it still being played?
Jacksonville is not starting Gabbert. They are starting Henne. Gabbert is the only NFL QB who can make Henne look good. And look good he did against Houston, almost leading Jacksonville to the win. Do I think that was an aberration? Absolutely. But this spread does not really account for that.
I mean...Tennessee sucks, too. And the game is in Jacksonville. Both teams came off of great performances in their last game (Titans had a bye but rimfucked Miami the week prior). So I don't know which way to go.
This is another bone-dry overcooked beef-fest, and I don't want to be anywhere near it. Both teams have the ability to revert immediately to smoldering piles of dicksuckery. So take your hard-earned fake cash elsewhere.
PICK: Fuck off. $0
HAD TO: I'd bet on Henne reverting to Henne and Blackmon once again forgetting he's an NFL WR now. Tennessee throttled Miami two weeks ago. Jacksonville will never throttle anybody. I guess I'd go with Tennessee and the 3.
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS (-3)
Ok, I don't really want to go over this again, because I did in the survivor post.
This is a tough one, because I think Indy wins, yet I also explicitly stated that they don't seem to win by much at home when they do win.
But if I'm going to ride them in survivor, may as well ride them all the way.
PICK: INDIANAPOLIS -3, $10
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI (-9.5)
Also went over this in the survivor post. Basically, this spread is way, way, way way way too high for at team that I think has a decent chance of losing this game.
PICK: OAKLAND +9.5, $30
SEATTLE @ MIAMI (+3)
Another home/away team, like them Colts, is Seattle. Seattle sucks on the road. Russell Wilson blows ass on the road. Pete Carroll fucks himself bloody with Challenger shrapnel on the road.
Miami, on the other hand, is a pretty consistently boring team, outside of that raping by Tennessee two weeks back. They may have the blandest, most boring roster ever assembled, and have for years now. They are not really terrible at any position, but they aren't good anywhere, either. Tannehill is decent and doesn't suck but he's boring as shit too, which makes him perfect. Every time I see a Dolphins uniform I just feel like napping.
So a somnambulant host against a visitor out of their element? I don't know what would happen, but I do NOT expect Miami to win by more than a field goal. Because they just straight up don't do that shit.
EDIT: Got the line wrong. Seattle is favored by 3, not Miami. I'm just going to take the points.
PICK: MIAMI +3, $10
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY, pick 'em
Oh shizz...I love this. I love how Tampa's been playing, and I've thought for awhile that Atlanta kinda sucked for an undefeated team. So now I'm getting a pick 'em, in Tampa Bay? I'm fucking taking it.
This is one of my dripping wet picks of the week. Freeman's been good, VJax has been good, Doug Martin has been good, everyone has been good. I don't think Ryan will throw 5 INTs like last week, but I don't think he'll tear it up, either. Even when they were just ehh, Tampa showed that their offense could keep up with that of New Orleans. They won't need to do that this week.
If I didn't have the Bengals or Colts left for survivor, I would strongly consider Tampa this week.
PICK: TAMPA BAY +0, $50
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO, pick 'em
Another pick 'em. I LOVE PICK 'EMs!
Baltimore is not the Baltimore we've come to know, but San Diego is just completely godawful now. They did keep it close against Denver, but I don't think that game was really ever in doubt. So this one is anything but an easy decision.
I don't know where to go with this. The Charger defense is ehhh, the Baltimore offense is either pretty good or eh, their defense sucks, and the Chargers suck offensively.
Since I can't really narrow it down the old-fashioned way, I'll go with my gut. I know Baltimore is not the same as they used to be, I know they are traveling to the west coast, I know they just played a tough Sunday nighter, but the Chargers have just been awesome at losing lately. Let's ride the fucking losers.
PICK: BALTIMORE +0, $15
ST. LOUIS @ ARIZONA (-1)
Ok. A matchup of two teams that suck. St. Louis is better but still sucks, and Arizona is awful on offense. Ryan Lindley (who?) is starting for them this week. I repeat: who the fuck is that? Last week with Lindley, they deepthroated whales. Picked off Matt Ryan 5 times and still lost. That's hard to do.
But St. Louis ain't Atlanta.
St. Louis's offense is the opposite of dependable. It's garbage. They do not score. They kick field goals to the point that their kicker has like 8 nicknames. I call him Kick Honetcutt. Actually I don't. But still. And Arizona, for all of their offensive failures, have an awesome defense.
So, St. Louis doesn't really do anything well, while Arizona at least does one thing awesomely. And they are at home. And they need to start winning yesterday if they want any chance at the postseason.
I actually really like AZ here. I didn't before I started writing this, but now I think I may even call this a dripping wet pick. This pick is seasoned beef, kids.
PICK: ARIZONA -1, $40
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS (-1)
An awesome game match-up can be a tough betting match-up.
San Francisco pulled it out in SF last year in the playoffs and looked dominant as fuck last week. But please...let's not think these Bears aren't what we thought they were. Do NOT crown their asses. Their OL sucks. It's not an NFL quality offensive line. So all of that havoc that the 9ers wreaked in the backfield will be tough to duplicate.
I love SF but I think New Orleans gets in the end zone here. They always do at home. They've been playing well. We rode them last week to an easy win in Oakland. I think they pull this one out in their dome. Is Kaepernick starting? Serious question...I don't know and I don't feel like looking it up. I don't care how many passes Alex Smith completed against Arizona, Kaepernick is so much better than Smith that it makes dolphins cry and then shit all over the sea.
PICK: NEW ORLEANS -1, $15
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS -2.5
You are favoring the Giants by 2.5? I don't think so.
The Giants are a decent team. They aren't bad. They aren't great. There's a reason they go 9-7 every year they win a Super Bowl. They can show up at times. They often don't. Their standard game is an ok game.
Green Bay is rolling. I don't care where this game is, I think they handle the G-men rather easily. I'm happily taking the points - I'd probably take Green Bay -2.5. This pick is just sopping wet.
PICK: GREEN BAY -2.5, $50
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA, NO LINE
Guess the injuries and stuff have forced Vegas to hold off. I hate the Eagles right now. I'd take Carolina even if they were a slight favorite. They've been losing but looking pretty good in doing so. So I think they handle Philadelphia. If I remember, I'll update this when I get a line.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND, PICK 'EM
Are you kidding me? Seriously, are you pissing all over my face right now? Are you strapping me down to a gourney, arms bound and strapped to the table, completely unable to move, and just pissing all over my face when you tell me this?
Ok. I know Ben Roeth is out. I know the Steelers backups suck and they just signed Goatfucker McHamilton. But a relapsing Josh Hamilton could lead the Steelers over the Browns.
Every time Benjamin is out, the Steelers lose to the Ravens. But even when they do, they beat the spread. The lost in OT to Baltimore with Dennis Dixon a few years back on a 8.5 point spread. They covered this past weekend. And when they play shit teams with the backup, they win. Charlie Batch beat Tampa and St. Louis and Tennessee and all them.
So you're going to give me a pick 'em here? The Steelers NEED this game. They have lost to Cleveland exactly once in the past TEN FUCKING YEARS. I know that loss was one they needed, but still...they just do not lose to the fucking Browns. EVER. This would be the survivoriest pick I'd ever make if I still had Pittsburgh available. So you want to let me pick? Fa rilllllll?
This is Meat's......
SIZZLING PICK OF THE WEEK!
PICK: PITTSBURGH +0, $100
Total bet: $405 riding this week, y'all
See you next week, dougs!
Posted by Business Horse at 2:06 PM
Now, the impetus for starting this blog was an NFL Survivor league. Surely you are familiar with how they work, or else you wouldn’t be reading our Dripping Wet picks. The picks so wet that they could slide a Honda Accord up Kerri Strug’s ass. The picks so moist that they could get Chamique Holdsclaw pregnant if she reads them. That drippy shit you’ll come to love from Heat and Meat.
But in case you aren’t, here’s how it works. You pick one winner every NFL week. Simple, right? Well, not entirely. Once you pick a team, they are done. You cannot pick them again. Seems easy, yet every year half of the league is eliminated by week 4. I am splitting one league with Heat, so I acquiesce and don’t adhere 100% to my rules. But here they are anyway:
1. Never, EVER take the consensus pick. Consensus picks swing entire leagues when they lose. And it’s going to happen…you do NOT want to get taken out with that wave. Off the top of my head, two consensus picks lost early this year, New England and New Orleans. Those losses killed leagues. You survive those losses and you have a chance to win by week 5. Just last week, Heat convinced me to go against my rule and take the Steelers over the Chiefs. We lucked out of that shit. Dallas almost got bit by this rule last week.
2. Don’t take shit-ass teams. This one’s new because I took Oakland against Jacksonville earlier this year. I figured one shit-ass team was less shit-ass than the other. We are lucky to be standing after that debacle.
3. That’s it. Really, I only have 1 rule and it’s number 1. Number 2 was an attempt to get another rule in and number 3 was just habit.
So that’s it. So who’s it gonna be this week?
TOP PICKS ACCORDING TO YAHOO:
We already took Denver, but they’d be out if we hadn’t. In fact, we’ve taken NE and Chicago as well.
So that leaves two choices: Cincinnati or Indianapolis. Both are home. On paper, it appears to be an easy choice: Cincinnati. Cincinnati hosts awful shit-ass Oakland while Indianapolis welcomes the Bills to their fuckawful city. And come on, Oakland just plain sucks horsetaint. Oakland puts entire horsecocks in their mouths while still finding room to slip that tongue out and gently mouth-stroke that taint. They are the James Buchanan of football.
But..CP3 returns to Cincinnati!!! Heat is psyched. Should I care? I don’t think I should. So I’ll eliminate the spectre of some out-of-body Carson Palmer experience just because he’s back in his old sucking grounds.
Looking at Indianapolis, I’m willing to ignore their bad loss last week in New England. New England is good. They have Tom Brady. The Colts have no pass defense. Game, set, match, clearly. Before that, the Colts have been winning games but it has not been pretty. They have only one loss at home but it was to Jacksonville and while they did beat the Packers there, they have no wins by more than, like, 4. That being said, Buffalo is not better than any of those teams that they beat and while I don’t think that it will be a decisive victory, I do think the Colts will win. Combining that with 7.5% of people picking them, they are an attractive choice. They can be passed on but the Bills typically shoot themselves in the foot, so I think they’ll do so enough here to cost themselves the game.
Now for Cincinnati. The Bengals are “hot”, mainly because they throttled a struggling Giants team at home and then didn’t lose to Cincinnati. But right before that Giants game, me and Heat took Denver (on Heat’s suggestion) to win in Cincinnati and, lo and behold, they did. Recency bias combined with Oakland being awful has anyone who hasn’t picked Denver yet going for Cincinnati. 25% is a significant number and makes Indianapolis look good at 7%.
Cincinnati has been much more up and down than Indianapolis. The Colts barely beat the teams that they should at home and then get throttled by decent teams on the road. Cincy though, who knows. While the Raiders have been bad, they imploded against Baltimore and New Orleans has the kind of offense that the Bengals can only dream about. So I don’t think they’ll implode again and they should move the ball on the Bengals like all teams that can throw have done so far this year.
I think I like the Bengals more, but the numbers say that this is one of those games that swings survivor leagues. Everybody who picked Denver so far will be pounding Cincinnati. And it’s a game that the Bengals can lose. So I’m gonna take a chance and cast my lot with Indianapolis.
Meat’s Sizzling Picks coming later.