Week 17...nahhh

Don't really have time to do any week 17 picks. Didn't like the lines anyway. I made two real bets this week, Clippers on the money line yesterday (they won...I'll just keep riding their winning streak on the moneylines) and Baltimore +2.5 @ Cincinnati. I don't think either has anything to really play for but I like Baltimore to win that game straight up.

That's about it. Think we did alright last week, I'll recap on Monday and then PLAYOFFS?!?!


EDIT: Also going to do a hypothetical. I can take the Colts, right now, at 30 to 1 odds to win the AFC. Can I put down on that and then guarantee myself money by betting against them each round? Moneylines will probably screw it up so I'll just try it in theory here. 

Week 16 Real Bets

Basically just for entertainment value...I don't bet big money anymore because, well, I'd always lose most of it.


BET 1: $5 parlay to win $4.95 on the moneylines of the big favorites.

Yep...so that's a parlay of Green Bay -700 over Tennessee, New England -1000 over Jax, Denver -900 over Cleveland and Chicago -235 over Arizona. Chicago's probably the best opportunity to fuck it up but really, these teams should all win easily.



BET 2: $5 on SF straight up over Seattle

It's a pick 'em and I got SF winning this one. My sizzler by default this week and you have to bet the sizzler.



BET 3: $5 on Chicago -5.5 at Arizona

I bet them on the spread, why wouldn't I take them straight up in that parlay? Arizona still sucks and Chicago doesn't have Detroit disease.


BET 4: $5 on Atlanta -3.5 at Detroit

Detroit, on the other hand, does have Detroit disease and it is incurable.



Last week: 5-7 (one a parlay of the others)

Let's get it.

Week 16 Saucy Picks

Well, after last week's guaranteed to fail picks succeeded, it's time to get all saucy in week 16. Yep. We're covering this bitch in sauce.

You know the drill. Lines from topbet.eu unless otherwise stated. Eventually I'm going to get blocked from this site but whatevs.

I'm 24-33 to this point but only down $25.

I'm not sure what I'm at, but I'll do the math sometime this week. I know I did a bit better than Meat did last week. We watched the early games at Sidelines, who are looking for 2 new bartenders if anyone is interested. It's a great atmosphere and every game is on. Free nuts and popcorn too.

ATLANTA @ DETROIT +4

So Atlanta has been killing me when I pick against them. Detroit kills me when I pick them. In a vacuum, this is a very easy pick.

Combined with the fact that Atlanta just beat the fuck out of NYG and Detroit embarrassed themselves to the freaking Cardinals, it's even easier.

And then with Detroit being invited cordially to go fuck itself with the remaining pieces of Jeff Alm's bitten-off dick?

Easy pick.

FUCK Detroit. I'm like 9/11, and can't forget. I hate Stafford and everyone else besides Megatron. I hope the city falls into a sink hole. Their people suck as much as their sports teams. 

MEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -4, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -4 $25

TENNESSEE +13 @ GREEN BAY

I'm just not going to touch this spread. It's too high. Weird stuff has happened in Green Bay and they can coast to a 10-point win or just play poorly yet entirely outclass Tennessee to one of those "close" 14 point wins you see when a good team plays someone like the Dolphins and.....I'm just gonna save my money.

Tennessee has shown stretches of tiny amounts of competence sooooo I'll give them the meaningless nod.

I agree with Meat in this one. GB has been very shaky and completely unpredictable. With a spread over 10 points I'd take my chances with Tenn, but wouldn't put money on this one.

MEAT'S PICK: Tennessee +13, $0

HEAT'S PICK: Tenn +13, $0

OAKLAND +8.5 @ CAROLINA

Another spread that's just weird and I hate it. Carolina blew out San Diego and just beat Atlanta at home but they've also lost to Kansas City and they'd have to win this one by fucking nine so that could be a tall order but Oakland is pretty bad so maybe they will but I'm not risking any fake money on it 'cause there are much better bets out there and isn't the Cam-cam commercial stupid don't you agree? *exhales*

This one sucks but I'm going with my heart on this bet and I don't want to have too many picks that match ol Meat. This is a game the Raiders should win, but the lack of run defense scares me, especially against Cam. He might actually run for more yards than he passes for in this match up.

MEAT'S PICK: Carolina -8.5, $0

HEAT'S PICK: Oakland +8.5, $0

BUFFALO +4.5 @ MIAMI

God, does this week suck. Last week was clear as day and then this week is foggier than the charred remains of Andre Rison's house. I punted on the last two so I guess I have to pick something here. Miami has been silently playing well, and Buffalo has been sucking out loud...and it's in Miami...so let's ride that sonar train, shall we?

Living in South Florida, we are stuck watching these two powerhouse teams battle and can't watch any other game without the package. I don't want to see one snap of this travesty. Who cares?

MEAT'S PICK: Miami -4.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Miami -4.5, $0

CINCINNATI +4 @ PITTSBURGH

I think Pittsburgh will win but, then again, I always think they are going to win. If you are buying the hype on this, may be worth getting the time-and-a-half from the moneyline.

Me, I'm not touching it. Too vested of an interest and honestly, I don't fuckin' know what's gonna happen with this team.

I am still not buying Cincinnati, though. PROVE IT BENGALS

I'm surprised Meat didn't have more to say about this one. Meat is probably one of the most educated football and especially Steelers fans out there.  This game is big for both teams, and I still have no interest in watching it. The Steelers are just boring to watch. I guess I don't appreciate the low scoring games and slow drives. I'd personally would like to see Cincy win, even though 80% of the people I associate with are Steelers fans. Feel my Raiders pan.

MEAT'S PICK: Pitt -4, $0

HEAT'S PICK: Cincy +4 $25

NEW ENGLAND @ JACKSONVILLE +14.5

I hate huge lines and I don't want anything to do with this one. Does New England probably win easily? Yeah. Would I put my hard earned cash on them doing so in Jacksonville, needing to win by at least 15? No. Double-digit home dogs are something like 60-35 over the last 10 years or something like that. And you figure, New England has to actually care enough about this game to beat Jacksonville that badly.

They still probs will, though.

New England looks good, but doubt that they give two shits about this game. With the large spread, I'll take Henne and the Jags but no money .

MEAT'S PICK: NE -14.5, $0

HEAT'S PICK: Jax +14.5, $0

INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY +6.5

Indianapolis needs this win to guarantee playoffs. There's still a chance they can lose out and lose a three-way tie for the last two spots.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is back to the complete suck they are used to. Brady Quinn is Brady Quinn again. There's a chance that Ricky fucking Stanzi gets a look at some point. That competent stretch was a mirage, and it is far, far back in the rear-view.

Indianapolis should roll.

I'm all aboard that Luck train. Pulling into KC calling out Romeo and the GM to the endzone and firing strikes into receivers chests. 

MEAT'S PICK: Indianapolis -6.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Indy -6.5, $25

NEW ORLEANS +3 @ DALLAS

Another hard one. I noted last week that New Orleans may not be back and that, instead, Tampa Bay was in the middle of their patented December swoon that I thought would have been eliminated with the removal of Raheem Morris. Apparently not.

Dallas has been on the receiving end of some breaks recently, so I'll bet on that ending. I hate to put trust in New Orleans again but this is a tough game to predict. Hell, this is a tough team to bet on. I'd hate to be a gambling Saints fan.

Always take into account that Dallas basically has zero home advantage and with that assumption, 3 free points looks pretty enticing here. +

Taking the points. Dallas never wins on purpose under Garret and Romo. 

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +3, $25

HEAT'S PICK: NO +3, $25

WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA +5.5

Philadelphia looked ok for a quarter or so last week, but that could have also been due to the general malaise of the Cincinnati Bengals. Then they turned it over 4 times in 5 plays. Nick Foles is still playing QB and with that in mind, points will be tough for the Eagles to come by. The defense has been better as of late but Washington knows how to score points and they should be able to score enough here.

I've really bought into the Washington hype. It's hard not to like RG3 and Cousins. The Eagles remind me of a local kickball team MMS. They have all the right parts but no idea where to place them, or how to get the most out of their talents. They implode. Yes, injury is an issue, but that can't be the main excuse.

MEAT'S PICK: Washington -5.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Wash -5.5, $25

ST. LOUIS +3 @ TAMPA BAY

I try to stick to my guns, but the problem is I have so many guns that sometimes they are pointing at each other. Like Russian Roulette or something. What I mean is, I think St. Louis sucks and has lucked into a decent record. So I like to bet against them, like last week, when I cleaned up backing Minnesota. However, at the same time, I really want to bet against Tampa Bay.

So it comes down to which gun is stronger. And last year, no gun was remotely as strong as the Tampa Bay down-the-stretch nosedive. It was fucking automatic. So while St. Louis sucking may be like a nice AR-15 or so, the Tampa Bay swoon, if they are indeed on it again, is a motherfucking Hydrogen bomb. I'll stick to my bombs.

I really have no opinion either way on this one. Meat has great points about StL. But I think that Tampa can rise from the ashes and get their shit together at home. Let's go Bucs.

MEAT'S PICK: St. Louis +3, $25

HEAT'S PICK: TB -3, $0

NYG @ BALTIMORE +2.5

Baltimore has been exposed. NYG has been exposed. Another example of the guns facing each other. Or maybe in this case they are both facing out. I don't know.

I want Baltimore to lose so that they have something to play for next week against the Bengals if the Steelers win this week. But I think they clinch the AFC North here before they risk finding a way to lose it in week 17. Who knows what happens if Flacco doesn't throw that pick 6 in the endzone last week. Just don't do it again, Joe.

New York won't be embarrassed two weeks in a row. I expect them to play a more convincing game in this must win week.

MEAT'S PICK: Baltimore +2.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: NYG -2.5, $25

MINNESOTA +7.5 @ HOUSTON

Indianapolis and Houston played their standard boring matchup last week, and Indy almost found a way to hit a backdoor cover on that TD+ spread. I think Minnesota, outside of the QB position, is way better than Indianapolis. Plus AP is running wild.

Andrew Luck should go and play for Minnesota.

Oddly enough, I'm looking forward to this game. I would like to see the RB match up. AP and Foster are both playing at high levels. Luck in Minn would be pretty sweet. He should have pulled a Bo Jackson and refused to play for Indy. I'm going against the Meat in this one, with Houston covering.

MEAT'S PICK: Minnesota +7.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Houston -7.5, $0

CLEVELAND +12.5 @ DENVER

Another one? What awful NFL action. This is not dead sexy. This is NOT dripping wet. This is drier than Ellen DeGeneres's stone cold vag. They should kick these two teams out and hold the Sudanese Desert Camelfucking Championships in the stadium. Just poetic...Love the visual. I would pay to see that event...in Denver...in the winter.

Washington just scored all over Cleveland, but gave up enough points that it was somewhat kinda close. Denver won't give up those points. Hate taking another giant spread here but I've punted too many thus far.

Peyton just uses Tebow's weapons better.

MEAT'S PICK: Denver -12.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Denver -12.5 $25

CHICAGO @ ARIZONA +5.5

Don't let Detroit's abortion-ey play fool you, Arizona still sucks. Their only benefit here is the fact that they force mad turnovers and Chicago gives them up. BUT, Chicago forces them, too. Detroit does not. And Arizona loves to give that ball away.

They'll give it away here. Give it away give it away nowwwww

Cutler's diabetic blood will be nice and warm inside this week. If he can find anyone else to pass to beside Marshall, they should pull out a win. Arizona should get Tebow or Matt Flynn.

MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -5.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: Chicago -5.5 $25

*****SAN FRANCISCO +0 @ SEATTLE*****

Oh snap, a true pick 'em!

I love these. I know Seattle has been killing it and drilling it recently, but they've played against the dregs of the Earth. San Francisco, I'd think would be a slight favorite here but for their almost-collapse in New England. Don't forget the fact that they could only collapse because they were bashing NE's fucking taints in, in Foxboro.

I think SF wins and I'm probably going to put a real bet down on it.

Seattle is obviously for real but I just think SF is completely stacked everywhere. By process of elimination, this is my sizzler.

I'll jump on board with this being the sizzler. I thought the sizzler was the pick of the week that was a sure win for our bets. But it looks like it's turned into the best game of the week. Nonetheless this is a game to watch. It's difficult not to like SF, even as a Raiders fan. The Smith's are unreal on defense and Kaep is making Randy Moss relevant again. Too bad for Vernon, who hasn't done much since the Oreo took over.

MEAT'S PICK: San Francisco +0, $50

HEAT'S PICK: SF +0, $25

SAN DIEGO +1.5 @ NYJ

San Diego is not a home favorite over a bad team and therefore can win this game. New York is fucking New York and has no business being favored over anything, ever. EVER.

Roll Tide...But this isn't Bama.

 

Prom king. Sanchize

MEAT'S PICK: San Diego +1.5, $25

HEAT'S PICK: SD +1.5, $25

Hoping for the same luck I had last week.

See you fags at Sidelines. Happy Holidays, whores.

Week 15 Review

OMG, I think we actually went over .500 this week!

THAT MAKES ME HARD.

I also went 5 for 7 in my real money bets, with one of those losses being a parlay of the others. Damn close.

Let's recap.

I am 14-27 year to date, -$225. Who knows what Heat is because he doesn't keep track of his fucking results.


WASHINGTON +4 @ CLEVELAND

Meat's Bet: Washington +4, $25.

Heat's Bet: Kind of took Washington, but didn't clarify. Heat loves RGIII so who knows what he does here but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

What Happened: Kirk Cousins threw a pick, which is what I was worried about when I made the pick. From there on, he dominated the shit out of Cleveland's defense - which is all they have - and now the talk is "what kind of picks are Arizona going to give up for him?". The NFL media is the king of overreaction. Greased Pig Richardson ran for two short TDs and 28 yards on 11 carries, then complained that he didn't get the ball more in the second half. Maybe his offense wasn't on the fuckin' 2 yard line.

Meat's Total: 1-0, +$25

Heat's Total: 1-0, Heat doesn't put down $ totals. Dick.







NYG +1 @ ATLANTA


Meat's Bet: NYG +1, $50 sizzler

Heat's Bet: NYG +1

What Happened: God damn. New York was my sizzler pick and turns out to be basically my only misstep. But it was a large misstep. The New York Rihannas came into Atlanta and were absolutely savagely beaten. 34-0? Jeez. Atlanta with that big win over a legit team that had been so eluding them.

Meat's Total: 1-1, -$25

Heat's Total: 1-1




CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA +4.5

Meat's Bet: Philadelph +4.5, $0

Heat's Bet: Cincinnati -4.5

What Happened: This had all the makings of one of those standard Bengal squeaker victories over a joke team early, the "we're 1 point away from a six-game winning streak give us our respect!" stuff of legend, and the Philly turned the ball over 4 times in 5 plays and that was that. One was a nice pick by Leon Hall. The other three were fumbles. Nice going, Philadelphia. After the first turnover (a pick-six) to put Cincinnati up by 4, the game was pretty much over. Because Philly wasn't going anywhere at that point. But they could have at least stuck around and covered!

Meat's Total: 1-2, -$25

Heat's Total: 2-1




 GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO +3

Meat's Bet: GB -3, $50

Heat's Bet: Chicago +3

What Happened: The Bears do what they do best, and that's lose to Green Bay at every given opportunity. I almost made this my sizzler. Guess I should have. Stupid-ass play calls by the Packers made this one closer than it really was.

Meat's Total: 2-2, +$25

Heat's Total:2-2




TAMPA BAY +3.5 @ NEW ORLEANS

Meat's Bet: Tampa +3.5, $0

Heat's Bet: New Orleans -3.5

What Happened: Good New Orleans showed up for a week and slaughtered Tampa, which is in their patented December Buccaneer free-fall mode. I still don't think New Orleans is trustworthy, but you can probably make a killing better against Tampa next week.

Meat's Total: 2-3, +$25

Heat's Total: 3-2




MINNESOTA +2.5 @ ST. LOUIS

Meat's Bet: Minnesota +2.5, $25

Heat's Bet: Minnesota +2.5

What Happened: I thought this one might be easy money, and it was. Almost bet the over and I think Minnesota got it on their own. This was a beatdown....St. Louis may have San Francisco's number but they really aren't that good. Minnesota is outside of their awful over-drafted Sanchizian quarterback.

Meat's Total: 3-3, +$50

Heat's Total: 4-2




JACKSONVILLE +7 @ MIAMI

Meat's Bet: Jax +7, $25

Heat's Bet: Jax +7

What Happened:  I don't know. This game was a standard Miami-Jacksonville 7-3 at half time. I considered the under but didn't pull the trigger...stupid of me. I guess Miami pulled away in the second half and won 24-3. Must have really been an exciting one.

Meat's Total: 3-4, +$25

Heat's Total: 4-3




DENVER @ BALTIMORE +3

Meat's Bet:  Denver -3, $50

Heat's Bet:  Denver -3

What Happened:  Denver pummeled Baltimore and the sad-sack Flaccos. Flacco Flacco-ed a redzone pick-Flacco and then as he lay on the ground, Flacco-ing was born.

Meat's Total: 4-4. +$75

Heat's Total: 5-3




INDIANAPOLIS +8 @ HOUSTON

Meat's Bet: Houston -8, $25

Heat's Bet: Indy +8

What Happened: Houston slogged to a boring 26-13 victory, or something like that. Indianapolis had some chances to pull a backdoor cover but couldn't get it done. These teams seem to have always played games like this.

Meat's Total: 5-4, +$100

Heat's Total: 5-4




CAROLINA +3 @ SAN DIEGO

Meat's Bet: Carolina +3, $25

Heat's Bet: Carolina +3

What Happened: San Diego was a home favorite, and they are San Diego, so they lost. And they lost badly. They got fuckin' massacred. They were like Cherokee Indians out there.

Meat's Total:  6-4, +$125

Heat's Total: 6-4





SEATTLE  @ BUFFALO +5.5

Meat's Bet: Seattle -5.5, $25

Heat's Bet: Seattle -5.5

What Happened:  Seattle got another favorable matchup, and once again they took big-time advantage. You have to continue to bet Seattle against bad teams. Especially at home or in domes. They will slaughter the fuck out of them.

Meat's Total:  7-4, +$150

Heat's Total: 7-4




DETROIT @ ARIZONA +6.5

Meat's Bet:  Detroit -6.5, $25

Heat's Bet: Arizona +6.5

What Happened:  Detroit pulled off their Detroit-est game of the year and I think they should be embarrassed. I figured the Arizona bad juju would outweigh theirs. Nope. Detroit is officially completely fucked as a team. Heat continued to make money betting against all things Lion.

Meat's Total:  7-5, +$125

Heat's Total: 8-4




PITTSBURGH @ DALLAS +1.5

Meat's Bet:  Pittsburgh -1.5, $0

Heat's Bet: Dallas +1.5

What Happened: The Steelers came back and had a chance to put this one away, but an Antonio Brown fumble gave Dallas new life. They tied it up and took it to overtime where Ben Roethlisberger gift-wrapped the game for them on the first play.

Meat's Total:  7-6, +$125

Heat's Total: 9-4



KANSAS CITY +3 @ OAKLAND

Meat's Bet:  Oakland -3, $25

Heat's Bet: Oakland -3

What Happened:  Heat continues to kill it. Oakland looked like Oakland but Kansas City looked even more like Oakland as they have for most of the past few weeks. Forget that Belcher Bowl against Carolina. That team is gone. This was probably the last easy KC bet of the year.

Meat's Total: 8-6, +$150

Heat's Total: 10-4




SAN FRANCISCO +6 @ NEW ENGLAND

Meat's Bet:  SF +6, $25

Heat's Bet: NE -6

What Happened:  San Francisco jumped all over these Boston fairies, but New England stormed right back to tie it up after facing a 31-3 deficit. But, San Francisco and their new non-Alex Smith QB held strong and got the win in the end. Both of these teams should have interesting lines next week.

Meat's Total:  9-6, +$175

Heat's Total: 10-5




NYJ @ TENNESSEE +1

Meat's Bet:  Tennessee +1, $25

Heat's Bet: Tennessee +1

What Happened:  Sanchez happened. There's no more that needs to be said.

Meat's Total:  10-6, +$200

Heat's Total: 11-5




What a week for Heat and Meat. Heat edged me with a killer 11-5 week, and fortunately for me most of my losses came on the $0 games that I had no idea where to go on. This big week almost erases the flaming abortions of the last two weeks and puts me at -$25 for the year.

For Heat, I will start tracking now 'cause that motherfucker won't do it himself.

MEAT YTD: 24-33, -$25
HEAT YTD: 11-5

Washington @ Cleveland Addendum

Heat and I are off to Sidelines for football and dick, but before we go, I decided to check the line on the Washington-Cleveland game, now that Kirk Cousins is in and RGIII has been ruled out.

Before I checked, I thought...what do I expect here? I decided that I still think Washington would be favored and expected to win. So when I saw the line of Washington +4.5, I had to jump all over that. I decided to put a quick $5 on it, but by the time I got to the betting site, the line had moved down to +4. Not sure I like to go with the money but I gotta stick to my guns.

I'm not blowing my entire fake wad on Kirk Cousins on the road, so I'll keep my fake money tally to Washington +4, $25. Neither team is that good. The Kirkster flung the ball around earlier in the season while RGIII was unconscious in New Orleans (or some dome team), but he also threw two ill advised picks and Cleveland, for all of their faults, can create some turnovers. So while it's not a slam dunk pick like I first thought, I still think it's a pretty easy choice to ride Washington in this one. Neither team is very good, but Washington I think is a little bit better and hey, they can lose by a field goal and I still get my monayyyy.

Peace.

WEEK 15 SIZZLER

Week 15's beef is really sizzling!

Year to date: 1-1 on sizzling picks

Took the week off last week from the sizzlers, but I believe that I wrote if I HAD to pick one, it would have been NE over Houston. I guess I need to trust my sizzle sense when it comes to these picks.

This week, we have a lot of road warriors that are likely to be bettor favorites. However, only one of them is an actual underdog, and it's the one that gets to play the fortunate Falcons at the Nobody Gives a Fuck Dome.

That's right, dougs, Atlanta has been scraping by and they are favored to beat them Giants at home this weekend. I don't see it. I don't see Atlanta getting by this week by scoring their usual 18 points. I don't see them holding NYG below 30 on that sweet, sweet dome turf. I don't see them picking Eli off 8 times like they've been doing to some other QBs around the league. I don't see Matt Ryan and company getting the bounces this week.

What I DO see, number 1, is a team lead by Matt Ryan, who has s-ed on the d recently. And at many points this year. And in his career. I see an NYG team fresh off shellacking New Orleans and Green Bay and losing a tough one to Washington. I see a team that just pummeled New Orleans when given basically the same gifts that Drew Brees gave to Atlanta. Difference is, that one was a tooth and nail battle to the end. What the fuck? How many tooth and nail battles to the end can a team getting 4 or 5 turnovers a game have?

We've established that the Saints aren't good anymore. So that still leaves like, one or two good teams that Atlanta has beat. And they did so any way but convincingly.

NYG is going to convincingly beat the fuck out of these birds.

THIS ONE SIZZLES!

Week 15 Real Bets

While my picks have sucked, I've just about broken even on my real bets.

So let's see if I can get in the black here.



BET 1: $5 on Green Bay -3 over Chicago

I may as well start dating Chicago because they've been fucking me for about two months now. I should avoid their games like the plague, but...I just like Green Bay to roll here too much to leave it alone.

When's the last time Green Bay didn't beat the Bears? George Halas was probably coaching against Curly Lambeau that day.




BET 2: $5 on NYG +1 over Atlanta

How do I not bet my sizzler? I hate Atlanta. I don't care if this game is in their stupid dome with their stupid fans that probably have no idea what their team's record is.

NY has been spotty but they've been good as of late and I'm hoping good NY carries over for another week.



Bet 3: $5 on Minnesota +2.5 over St. Louis

As much as I like Minnesota to just win this straight up, I probably should have taken the money line. Probably about +150. Oh well.

AP probably runs for about 400 yards this week. He's desperate to break Dickerson's record and they have nothing else going on for them. You heard it here first!




Bet 4: $5 on Denver -3 over Baltimore

So I guess I'm basically betting on every road team. A unique strategy. Sure to succeed. Always works. Love road teams.

Whatever. Denver is good and Baltimore is not. By that logic, Denver should be ok to win this one by a field goal.




Bet 5: $4.71 parlay of the above to win $67.50

I know pros say avoid parlays, but I like them. They are fun. I needed to spend $4.71 to get down to an even number. Who doesn't like even numbers?




Bet 6: $5 on Minnesota/St. Louis OVER 39.0

I just figure that points will be scored in the dome. If St. Louis wins and I blow the first bet, I'm sure it will be because they scored enough to push this game over 40.



Ok, that's all for this week. Year to date: Down like, 78 cents in vigs.

WEEK 15 GUARANTEED TO FUCKING FAIL PICKS

I'm not going to try to sugarcoat it, I've just been fucking terrible at picking NFL football games. Thankfully, this isn't a blog primarily based on our attempts to pick NFL football games.

Wait, what?

Fuck.

YTD: 14-27, -$225

As always, lines are from topbet.eu and are available for betting.

Heat's comments and picks are in red. I will add more later, but for now I'll add my picks. I don't know my overall record as of now, but I will look it up.

CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA +4.5

Ok, so Philly finally sacked up and won a game last week. They did this possibly because Bryce Brown didn't lose two fumbles this week! Of course, he only gained 6 yards as opposed to his usual 150 and 2 TDs. Tampa does have the NFL's number 1 ranked rush D but still, doug. That's fuckin' awful.

So I don't know what to think. I do think Philly goes back to their losing ways. But I still have no real faith in Cincinnati.

I desperately would like Cincy to lose this game, so I'm leaning toward Philly based on pure emotion here. I really don't know which to pick so I'll save my money. Heat doesn't give the slightest fuck about either team so just read his prediction for this one.

MEAT'S PICK: Philly +4.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Cincy -4.5


GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO +3

This one might sizzle. I have no faith in Chicago to not get waxed in this one. That's what they do. Green Bay usually dispatches with them pretty easily.

If you've been reading, you'll know that Chicago has been toying with me the past month or so, making this an almost sure chance to make money by doing the opposite of what I suggest. But I've got Green Bay winning this one easily, on the road and all. Chicago has basically 3 offensive players. They will probably make Green Bay's defense look as good as their own. And Big Play Jay will mix in a pick six.

MEAT'S PICK: Green Bay -3, $50
HEAT'S PICK: Chicago +3

****SIZZLING PICK    NYG +1 @ ATLANTA   SHIT IS ON FIRE****

Orrrrrrr maybe this will sizzle. Atlanta sucks as much ass as an 11-2 team can suck, and while you can argue that this spread is an overreaction to their loss last week, I'll tell you that they've sucked that ass all year. In fact, their lucky record is the only reason they are even favored here.

New York isn't exactly the juggernaut people think they are but I think they win this one pretty easily.

MEAT'S PICK: NYG +1, $50
HEAT'S PICK: NYG +1


TAMPA BAY +3.5 @ NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans has sucked for weeks now. Tampa sucked last week and kinda sucked the week before but had played ok before that. I have no idea which way to go here.

I'd say that I need to stop treating New Orleans like they are good New Orleans just because they are New Orleans, but...it's in the Cajun Hellhole and Tampa is an enigma itself. So I don't know.

Damn it. Save your money.

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay +3.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: NO -3.5

MINNESOTA +2.5 @ ST. LOUIS

I do not think that the Georgia Frontierre Dome is a big advantage, so this line intrigues me. I know St. Louis has also been playing well, but would you take them over Minnesota? I don't think I would, and that combined with Adrian Peterson apparently on a mission to rush for 300 yards in a game is more than enough for me.

MEAT'S PICK: Minnesota +2.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Minn +2.5


WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND - OFF

Still waiting on RGIII's status. Revisit the point from last week's Arizona Cardinal breakdown - if your quarterback is worth his fucking weight in pubes, the oddsmakers will hold off on the spread until more information is made public. If your QB's status is up in the air and they come out with a line right away on Wednesday, then I guess we learned last week that you should bet heavily against that team.

MEAT'S PICK: TBA
HEAT'S PICK: Washington



JACKSONVILLE +7 @ MIAMI

Battle of Florida! Two exciting-ass teams with sizzling superstars like Reginald Bush, Cecil Shorts the who-gives-a-fuckth and Chad Tannehill!

Dolphins have quietly been boringly playing blandly well recently although it continues to lead to big wins by the opponents, who have actual NFL players. Jacksonville has cooled off dramatically and managed to give up 17 to Sanchez and the Jets. So the trend is going Miami's way.

Howeva, I'm not sure if there's enough star power to score 7 here, let alone win by it. So I'm going to take Jax and the points. It's a long drive down I-95 but I'm sure they'll be alright. I was tempted to take the under but Vegas has it at 37.0 and that's tough to take. If it were in the 40s I'd be all over it.

MEAT'S PICK: Jax +7, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Jax +7




DENVER @ BALTIMORE +3

Another playoff-bound home favorite. And this team is even more suspect than Chicago. I wasn't buying into Denver as an elite team early but they've certainly earned that with their play down the stretch. And you know what I think of those frauds down in Baltimore.

Denver to roll.

MEAT'S PICK: Denver -3, $50
HEAT'S PICK: Denver -3



INDIANAPOLIS +8 @ HOUSTON

Damnnnn son. This is a tough game all around, and that spread is making it even tougher.

I'm not buying the hype on Luck...another so-so game last week looks awesome because they are 9-4 now. But they beat the Titans at home. Any team with playoff aspirations should beat the Titans at home, and they should make it look easier than the Colts did.

Luck is basically rookie Peyton Manning. Tons of yards and throwing TDs but some poor throws that you can't make in the NFL and a boatload of picks to go with it. We saw what happened to Peyton Manning from his second year forward: he absolutely dominated some ass. I expect Luck to dominate ass throughout his career...but not until next season. He'll probably end up better than Bob Griffin the Third in the long run. But this year I don't trust him to win a game like this.

But....can he stay within 8? That's the question here. Sure Houston has lost big to teams like New England and Green Bay. Don't put Luck and Indianapolis in the class of those offenses yet. A better question is can he match what Jacksonville and Detroit did. I think Jacksonville was an anomaly and I think Detroit has more talent on offense, even if it's being run by that volume throwing frat-boy clown Matt Stafford. So I don't know.

For me, I guess it comes down to the opinion that Indianapolis has not a fuckin' prayer of stopping the Houston offense. I think Luck's going to need to put up a shit-ton of points to keep up, and I think he'll slip up and turn the ball over a few times in trying.

For those of you who think Indy wins this game straight up, and there is plenty of that sentiment out there, you can jump on that moneyline at +315 right now. But me, I'm sticking with the Texans to cover. I think the spread gets bet down as the week goes on, so I'm going to check back on it on Saturday.

MEAT'S PICK: Houston -8, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Indy +8



CAROLINA +3 @ SAN DIEGO

San Diego finds a way to lose this game. They just do. That's what the fuck they do in games like this and I'll bet on it happening from now on until it doesn't.

This isn't road favorite, Norv's about to lose his job San Diego like we saw last week. This is home favorite, Philip Rivers-elite San Diego. They find a way to fuck themselves, generally.

MEAT'S PICK: Carolina +3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Carolina +3


SEATTLE @ BUFFALO +5.5

Ok, first off this game is in Toronto. It's in the dome. So forget about weather doing crazy things.

Second off, Seattle is a turnover forcing machine. We saw that last week. And while Browner is out, Richard Sherman is still appealing his adderall suspension and he'll be playing. I hope he did well on the test he was studying for.

As for Buffalo, they are an enigma like some of the other teams, but I've seen more bad Buffalo than good recently and I'll bet on that. Fitzpatrick can supply the fuel to even the shoddiest of turnover machines. He's like Ultra 93 Premium Unleaded for Seattle. I think they win easily.

MEAT'S PICK: Seattle -5.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Seattle -5.5


DETROIT -6.5 @ ARIZONA

Ok, ok. I know all about Detroit. But I'm betting against the Lindley/Skelton train until it runs me over.

Don't go crazy on this one because Detroit always has the potential to go full-Lion on you and AZ's defense can make Stafford pay for his apparent blind throws in the dark, but...Arizona is just blowing goat dick right now. Ride it. Ride that goat dick.

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit -6.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Arizona +6.5



PITTSBURGH @ DALLAS +1.5 

I'm surprised to see Dallas as the underdog here. If you want to bet Steelers on this one, I'd wait until the weekend as it's almost sure to swing their way. If you want Dallas, hurry the fuck up and jump on this one.

Me, I take Steelers here for $0, please. I'm not touching this one with actual cash.

MEAT'S PICK: Pittsburgh -1.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Dallas +1.5



KANSAS CITY +3 @ OAKLAND

I have no fucking clue. Give me the home team.

KC started last week off with an 80-yard TD run by Jamaal Charles. Then they were KC again. At least Oakland showed a semblance of NFL teaminess last week, although it's hard to put too much weight on it because it was a Thursday game and weird shit happens in Thursday games.

MEAT'S PICK: Oakland -3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Oakland -3


SAN FRANCISCO +6 @ NEW ENGLAND

Holy shizz. Last week was relatively easy money taking New England, but this seems like an overreaction to that. I think SF is like a better Houston.

I think they can keep this one within 6, but I'm not confident enough to put any....ahhhh fuck it it's a fake money blog, I'll throw down on this one.

MEAT'S PICK: SF +6, $25
HEAT'S PICK: NE -6



NYJ +1 @ TENNESSEE

I trust Tennessee a lot more than Jacksonville. I don't know why, as Jacksonville beat Tennessee. But I do. So sue me.

Fuck Sanchez.

MEAT'S PICK: Tennessee -1, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Tenn -1



I've gone back and picked NYG +1 over Atlanta as my sizzler. I'm going to jump on that and put real money on it before they become the favorite.


Good luck!

Week 14 Recap

Do I have to?

Last week I once again bet like a starving invalid. Heat's early recaps have me at like, 3-10. Awesome. Let's see the damage! I'll keep telling you...watch my picks, then bet against them. Every. Time.

(Except my real money bets, they are doing ok).

YTD: 9-16, -$175



SAN DIEGO +7.5 @ PITTSBURGH

My bet: San Diego +7.5, $25

What happened: San Diego came out and beat the ever-living fuck out of the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was off his game, and when he was momentarily on his game, his receivers dropped the ball. I figured the Steelers would win but not by 7.5, because they never win by more than 7.5. Didn't think this would happen, but it's a notch in the right column all the same.

Total: 1-0, +$25



DENVER @ OAKLAND +10.5

My bet: Oakland +10.5, no money

What happened: Who knows, I didn't watch. Looks like Oakland played ok but just doesn't have the team to hang with Denver. I would have taken the points if I had to but didn't really want to touch this game.

Total: 1-1, +$25



BALTIMORE +1.5 @ WASHINGTON

My bet: Washington +1.5, $25

What happened: Figured Washington would win, and they did. At that point I ignored the 1.5, because there aren't too many one-point wins in the NFL. Baltimore made it tough, and Washington tied it up late and prevailed in overtime. I also bet real money on the OVER (47.5), which seemed like easy money and looked like a sure thing early, but it got a little sketchy late. But these two awful defenses managed to allow enough points to give me my monayyyyy. The way this game was played, there was no analysis needed. Washington wins this game half the time and Baltimore wins this game half the time. It's a coin flip.

Total:  2-1, +$50



KANSAS CITY +6.5 @ CLEVELAND

My bet: KC +6.5, no money

What happened: Jamaal Charles ran 80 yards for a TD on the first play from scrimmage, and then nothing. Cleveland pummeled KC 27-7 or something. So remember that for next week...KC is back to sucking. Still not sure what to think of Cleveland. I'm hoping this game causes Vegas to overrate them.

Total: 2-2, +$50



TENNESSEE +5.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS

My bet: Indianapolis -5.5, $25

What happened: I wrote when I picked this game that Indianapolis really has not played thaaat well and never wins at home by 5+. I said that it wouldn't hold and that Luck would really show up today and that Indy would coast in this one. That didn't happen. Indy's standard homefield model prevailed here and they only won by 4. They may be an interesting bet for next week.

Total: 2-3, +$25



NYJ @ JACKSONVILLE +1.5

My bet: Jax +1.5, $25

What happened: I don't know, but it was probably boring as hell. I saw that Sanchize was starting and took the home dog against him. But NYJ got it done, as Jacksonville has a terrible fucking roster. They are back in play as an awful team - looks like the anomaly against Houston was just that. I put real money on the under and these two offensive lepers didn't let me down.

Total: 2-4, $0



CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA +3

My bet: Chicago -3. $25

What happened: Minnesota picked off Cutler for basically two pick-sixes as the Bears continue to give the ball away like it was HPV. Thought Chicago would roll, but nope...they killed me for the second straight week that I took them. After killing me for weeks when I bet against them. Why do I do this to myself?

Total: 2-5, -$25



ATLANTA @ CAROLINA +3

My bet: Atlanta -3, $25

What happened: Carolina said they were going to come out and wreck Atlanta, and they came out and wrecked Atlanta. Atlanta was the sketchiest 11-1 team ever, but I still didn't think they'd have any problem against the Cams. But they did. This one was not as close as the score indicated.

Total: 2-6, -$50




PHILADELPHIA +7.5 @ TAMPA BAY

My bet: Tampa Bay -7.5, $25

What happened: Philly finally won with their JV battery of Nick Foles and Bryce Brown. Oddly, this was the one game where Bryce Brown failed to show up at all, running for 6 yards on 12 attempts and wrecking fantasy playoffs for many people around the world, including both Heat and myself. I don't know what happened in this game, nor do I care. But I would think that maybe it validates some of Philly's recent close outings.

Total: 2-7, -$75



ST. LOUIS +3 @ BUFFALO

My bet: Buffalo -3, $25

What happened: I thought Buffalo would coast to victory. Instead, we got a 15-12 barnburner of a win for St. Louis. It's really tough to bet on or against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo offense, because you have absolutely no idea what you are going to get from him. Had real money on Buffalo too, lost that shit.

Total: 2-8, -$100



DALLAS +3 @ CINCINNATI

My bet: Dallas +3, $25

What happened: I've said multiple times that I refuse to take the Bengals seriously until I have to. I do not have to yet. I put some real money on the Dallas moneyline. Although this game was very tight and required a late Dallas comeback (they were down 19-10 at one point), in the end, I finally got back into the win column.

Total: 3-8, -$75




MIAMI +10.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO

My bet: SF -10.5, $25

What happened: Miami actually played pretty feisty here and had a chance to tie it up late, down by 7 and throwing into the end zone. They didn't get it and then Kaepernick ran for a long TD to give me a very welcome backdoor cover. Thanks Colin!

Total: 4-8, -$50




NEW ORLEANS +4.5 @ NYG

My bet: NO +4.5, no money

What happened: Thought N.O. might win straight up, but in the end, I wasn't confident what to go. And good thing, as NYG ran roughshod through the Saints. Wasn't even as close as the score indicated (and the score indicated an ass-molesting). New Orleans as a viable good team is done.

Total: 4-9, -$50



ARIZONA +10.5 @ SEATTLE

My bet: Arizona +10.5, no money

What happened: I mentioned that I hated Arizona and their slew of cum-addict quarterbacks, but thought that the line was just a bit too high for Seattle. Well, it was too low...by about 48 fucking points. What a dick-slapping Seattle put on Arizona here. They swung a lot of fantasy playoffs with their 40+ point performance, including one against me. Brutal.

Total: 4-10, -$50




DETROIT +6.5 @ GB

My bet: Detroit +6.5, $25

What happened: I explained that I didn't like Detroit but...they are an awesome backdoor cover type of team. And they almost did just that here, instead electing for the field goal down near the goal line down by 10. Down by 10 was a late thing, they were hanging with GB all night. But in the end, they found a way to lose by 7. Sucks because by Friday the line had swung to +7.5.

Total: 4-11, -$75





HOUSTON +3.5 @ NE

My bet: NE -3.5

What happened: Had a feeling New England may win pretty handily. Had no idea they would put such a fucking beating on those poseur Texans. Houston has got stomped by the two elite teams they've faced - New England and Green Bay. They can beat up on Baltimore and Miami all they want - this team has some flaws. Mainly, Schaubby just isn't getting it done at the QB spot. 

Total: 5-11, -$50



WEEK 14: 5-11, -$50
YEAR TO DATE: 14-27, -$225

Lovely. While my record sucks, on the games I was actually confident enough to note, I was a half-point from Detroit away from breaking even. Oh well. We'll move on and try not to fuckin' blow again next week!

Centerfielders Look for Second Win...of the Season.

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Chargers @ Steelers Addendum

Well, Ben Roethlisberger is back! Either his ribs healed or, according to Pittsburgh-area conspiracy theories, his newborn child is now born enough that he can stop faking his injury and get back on the football field. Not going to affect the betting lines, so I'll let that go.

Now, topbet.eu still doesn't have the line posted, but I've seen Chargers +7 and Chargers +7.5 on the 'nets. Let's just assume Chargers +7.5 to eliminate the possibility for a push (I hate lines that aren't half-point). Now, I like the Steelers to win relatively easy here, but...for Pittsburgh, a 7 point win is a relatively easy win. They rarely win big, no matter who they are playing. They absolutely throttled RG III and his merry band of handless receivers....and won by 15. They played pretty damn well in Cincinnati...and won by 7. That's just what they do.

So, against a Chargers team that kind of sucks but does have a few pieces? I think they will be hard pressed to win by 8. I'd say if you played this one out ten times, more often than not, the Steelers do not win by 8 or more. I still remember Pittsburgh beasting all over San Diego in 2008, by the score of 11-10. I remember them jumping all over San Diego in 2009...and winning by 7. Steelers should certainly win, but I just don't think they blow San Diego away on the scoreboard.

MEAT'S PICK: Chargers +7.5, $25

Week 14's Real Live Bets

I struggled mightily last week but I did hit on two of the three NFL bets I put real money on, those being Philly +10.5 over Dallas and Houston +5.5 over Tennessee. Lost Carolina -3 over KC. However, I also had some fun with college games and lost both my bets (my longshot Texas bet and three team underdog parlay) due to Collin Klein and Kansas State letting loose in the fourth quarter. Oh well.

This week, I don't really like most of the lines, so I'm going to mix in some Over/Unders.


BET 1: $5 on Baltimore/Washington OVER 47.5

These teams are so awful defensively that you can certainly see both breaking 30. Baltimore was fortunate to only surrender 23 points last week AT HOME TO CHARLIE BATCH, while the Skins somehow held the struggling G-men to 16. Which is fine with me, because this O/U should probably be somewhere in the 50s. Flacco can play against bad defenses and RGIII can run through any defense, specifically this Ravens one. They MAY have Ray Lewis back to jump on piles and they MAY have a 70-or-so percent Terrell Suggs with a bicep tear. I'll take my chances with the over, nahm'sayin'?



BET 2: $5 on Buffalo -3 over St. Louis

The more I looked at it, the more I like Buffalo here at home. St. Louis has been depending heavily on turnovers I can't see that lasting forever, even against a team as susceptible to giving the ball away as Buffalo can be at times. I don't think the Bills will have any problem winning this game at home. Recent weeks have skewed this line a bit more toward St. Louis than it should be, I think.

Trusting them Bills to circle the wagons and then post-cum all over Chris Berman's fat face.



BET 3: $5 on Dallas +140 moneyline over Cincinnati

Maybe it's just wishful thinking. But I've had a lot of predictive success over the years by not buying into the Bengals. Ever. I've never bought into the Bengals and they've rarely proved me wrong. I still don't think they are that good. I don't think Dallas is that good, but I can see this being a toss-up kind of game. And if one side has a +140 moneyline, I'll take my chances with that team.

Romo didn't throw any picks last weekend, which is kind of scary, but hopefully he can find one more week of that "throwing only to your own guys" magic that so often eludes him. Oh, and Dez has started to become a monster. Maybe he breaks out big-time in this one. He's due for one of those 200+ yard, 2 TD games.




BET 4: $5 on NYJ/Jacksonville UNDER 38.0

Why not? Neither of these teams is exactly a scoring machine. Jacksonville came back down to Earth last week and is also starting a running back absolutely no one has ever heard of. Montell something? I can't even remember his name.

The Jets, on the other hand, ARE DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THEY SHOULD START MARK SANCHEZ OR GREG MCELROY. I imagine if you time traveled to 2015 and showed this blog to somebody, they'd say, "wait....that actually happened once? Some NFL team had that discussion?", and then tell you to leave their house, demon. Which is to say that they will probably struggle to score 10 points. I don't think you'll lose too much money betting against the offenses of Jacksonville and New York.




BET 5: $5 on Detroit/Green Bay OVER 51.5 

Kind of the opposite of the above - two teams that can score and can't stop other teams from scoring. I'm going out on a limb taking Green Bay to explode offensively, as they haven't recently and especially not at home, but if there's any team that can make them look like the Packers of old...it's Detroit. Detroit could potentially give them 52 points through stupid mistakes and bad coaching alone. Ndamawhatevs Suh could run right past 3 or 4 developing screen passes in the first half alone. He doesn't give a fuck about defensive responsibilities and neither should you in this one. Stafford has been so precariously close to throwing multiple pick-sixes over the last few weeks that he'll probably find a way to actually get that done this week. I'll take the points.


EDIT (Fri 12/7)
BET 6: $5 on Kansas City +240 to win over Cleveland

I have no idea who is going to win this game...so if they were to play it 3 times, do I think KC would win at least one of them? Probably, so why not take this curiously large moneyline? This is basically just picking in the dark but ehh, you only live once.

Week 14's Sopping Wet Picks

In case you were wondering, Overtown lost by 3 last night, barely covering the +3.5 run spread. Game was marred by some awful, awful calls. Maybe these two teams will meet again in the playoffs.

But now on to more pressing matters - week 14's picks. I am 9-16, so don't listen to me. I don't know what Heat is because he makes up lines in his head and hasn't posted any recaps on here. I imagine he's still in a post-cum haze after Detroit's epic late-game suck. I know I am.

So, as usual, look at my lines and bet the EXACT OPPOSITE. Heat will probably add his picks in burning hot red.

That's right, Heat is in the bitch with that hot red font color. By the way, I went 4-12 with my made up lines last week. Our credibility on this blog is quickly fading. I am too broke to bet with any real money but I'll put my bets down in the amount of $5 and $10, because if I had money, that is how much I would bet.

NOTE: All of my lines are from topbet.eu. Any line that I use on here can be bet on, right the fuck now, using real money.


DENVER @ OAKLAND +10.5

Well. A 10.5 point home underdog. And it's well deserved, too. Oakland is coming off a narrow 3-point loss to motherf-ing Cleveland at home while Denver is fresh off a second-half pasting of Tampa.

Carson Palmer will throw for like 350 yards, but he'll mix in one TD and four picks. This is a fucking hard line right off the bat....I really don't know where to go on it. I'm going to pick the home double-digit Thursday night dog, but I'm not confident enough to put anything behind it.

I took this spread and made a Facebook Profile Picture bet. The loser changes their profile pic for 48 hours. I'm taking the points and the RAAAIIIIIDDDERRS.

MEAT'S PICK: Oakland +10.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Oakland + 10.5, Facebook Pride


BALTIMORE +1.5 @ WASHINGTON

The one bad thing about Baltimore losing to Charlie Batch last week is that it finally exposed Baltimore for all it's flaws. This was one of the worst 9-2 teams in the history of Earth. They cannot pass consistently, they cannot defend anything, their QB is not all that unlikely to put up a Sanchez-ian performance...yet if they would have pulled out the expected win last week, they'd probably be favored over a 6-6 Redskins team. Not the fuck anymore.

This is not to say that they still aren't the right choice here...Washington, for all it's sizzle, has really no defense to speak and that could lead to a sighting of good Flacco. I'm aware that they played well against NYG last weekend, but I don't expect them to go holding every team to 16 points. And NYG has been weird as hell recently. No idea what to expect from them.

Damn. I guess I have to think that RG III and company will torch Baltimore's defense and Ray Rice will run wild, but...I think Washington gets a win here. I'm not too confident, but I'll take them at home. And I'll probably throw some real money down on the Over (47.5).

I like that the experts are starting to throw in the race card for RG3. He is unreal and seems like a pretty damn good role model for the kids. I'm gonna put my fake monies on the skins as well.

MEAT'S PICK: Washington -1.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Washington -1.5, $5


KANSAS CITY +6.5 @ CLEVELAND

No. No no no no. I want nothing to do with this fucking shit. Go fuck yourself with Challenger shrapnel.
The KC high of winning for Belcher is gone. I am with Meat on this one, in the sense that I hate this game. It shouldn't even be played. I'm going with Greased Pig and the Browns, purely for fantasy points (I'm still in the hunt thanks to Meat dropping Brown)

MEAT'S PICK: Meat refuses to pick anything for this gamebortion. $0.
HEAT"S PICK: Browns $0

IF HE HAD TO: Fuck it, take the points. KC +6.5. Disgusting.

SERIOUSLY: Go fuck yourself.

ANY ACTUAL ANALYSIS?: KC is unpredictable and had been before they decided to start shooting significant others. Cleveland has no offense but a somewhat decent defense. Brady Quinn played really well last weekend but he's still Brady Quinn. Greased Pig Richardson has slowed down but he'll still probably put up 100+ yards in this game. Pick up either defense in fantasy if you go with the week-to-week option.


SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH - OFF

No spread yet as Dad Roethlisberger is still uncertain to play. Signs lead toward him playing, so I'll get back on this when that time comes. Last week I noticed late that the spread was PIT +7.5 over Baltimore, and trust me, I would have been all over that.

I'll save my text-breath for the spread reveal here.

I hate SD with a passion. No matter the spread in this one, I'm taking Pitt.


TENNESSEE +5.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS

This is tricky, because as successful as Indy has been at home, they haven't won any game handily and really haven't performed all that well on the whole. Tennessee is not very good and should not present a challenge, though, regardless of how poor Indianapolis's defense is.

Now, did Luck turn a corner last week? I don't know. He threw a TON of passes right into coverage, three were picked and probably four more were dropped. But he also made some really, really nice throws and the last drive was just way too easy for the Colts. So I'll ride the Luck train this week to put the Titans away by at least a TD. The only way I see Tennessee making this a game is Chris Johnson running wild, which I could actually see against Indianapolis, but, as it's 2012 Chris Johnson, I wouldn't bet on it.

MEAT'S PICK: Indianapolis -5.5, $25. May put actual money on this one.
HEAT"S PICK: Indy -5.5 $10

I'm riding that Luck train into victory. I hate to root against him, and I've learned my lesson. The only way I think the Titans could win is if Luck beats himself.

NYJ @ JACKSONVILLE +1.5

You know, I really don't know with this one. I don't. Because of the Jet's QB situation.

If Sanchez or McElroy were going, I'd roll with Jax right now. A home underdog in a game I think they win straight-up, I'd probably take them on the money line. But I have a feeling that it's Tebow Time. Who knows with Tebow Time, and I'd need to think about it. It also may shift the line even more into NYJ's favor, and I'm willing to wait it out. I'll probably make a decision on this one on Friday or Saturday.

But basically...everyone knew Rex was posturing when he kept saying Sanchez was his guy, Sanchez is a franchise guy, Sanchez is so good at football, Sanchez doesn't always have to suck on my D for playing time, he's making strides, he's having an excellent 5th rookie season, yada yada. But last week...he removed Sanchize, for performance reasons, FOR GREG MOTHERFUCKING MCELROY. Just think about that for a second. Removes his so-called "franchise" QB, in the third quarter of a close game at home against Arizona, for GREG. MCELROY.  That's insane. It's the tearing down of the facade. I honestly don't know why it's not a bigger deal. Rex finally couldn't hold his poker face any longer.

So...it's clear that they aren't wedded to Sanchize. They don't truly think that highly of him. Think about it...let's ignore the obvious upper-echelon QBs like Brady and Brees and look at it this way. Do you think Houston pulls Matt Schaub in this situation? Fuck no. Pittsburgh pull Ben Roethlisberger? Good fucking luck. Miami wouldn't even pull Tannehill given those circumstances.

Alex Smith may get pulled. And that's who Sanchez is. He's a worse, East Coast version of Alex Smith. Tebow's no Kaepernick but, he runs around, he's exciting, he's polarizing, he's entertaining, he draws viewers and ratings, he throws short passes like Stephen Hawking, no one prays harder, he circumcises little Thai boys, he does it the fuck all. And he's coming home to Jacksonville.And looks great warming up shirtless...proceed. It just makes too much sense. I think the NFL may goad the Jets into doing it...and I think they are embellishing his current injury status so they haven't had to make that decision. Well, if you can't hold the Sanchez poker face...probably going to struggle on that one as well.

Please pleeeeease be Tebow Time! I will probably bet your life on the Under.

MEAT'S PICK: TBA
EDIT: In hindsight, I don't really want to touch this one, but I'll take Jax, the +1.5 and the homefield advantage for $25, please.
HEAT"S PICK: Jax +1.5. Meat said it all, but Henne has my heart, and he's tugging at the strings.


CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA +3

Minnesota isn't bad, outside of Ponder. Unfortunately, he touches the ball every single play, strongly increasing the "horrible fuck up" variable of the average Viking possession.

Chicago, though, is like a much better version of Minnesota. They have the same shoddy offense, but Cutler is eons better than Ponder. I guess that helps make up for the lack of AP. Forte can do a lot of things but he's no Peterson. Both teams also have strong defenses, but Chicago's is just a level or two above that of Minnesota. Chicago killed me last week after I finally bet on them, and Minnesota played well against Green Bay. That's got me thinking that this line is a bit of a reaction to that and I think Chicago is a pretty good bet at -3, even on the road in Minnesota. Percy Harvin is still probably not going to play, and you've got to think that the Bears will force their fair share of turnovers in this one. The more I think about it, the more I like Chicago here, even after last week.

AP is running wild, but as Meat points out, Ponder has faded as the season goes on. I like Da Bears.

MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Chicago -3.5 $10


ATLANTA @ CAROLINA +3.5

Atlanta is so undependable that, at 11-1, they can only get 3.5 going down the street to play a 3-9 team and I'm still not sure I want to touch them.

Carolina, though, while they had been quietly playing well early in the year - they just haven't been the same recently. So I'll have to take Atlanta and the points and just hope that for fucking once they win a game like they should. I mean, how the hell do you pick off Drew Brees 5 times and still struggle to hold on? Pick off Peyton Manning 3 times in the first four possessions of a game and barely hang on? I don't get this team.

But - Cam Newton is no Drew Brees. He's no Peyton Manning. He's not even RG III. Yeah, I know he pouts and all that - but I don't care about his facial expressions. I said it last year and I'll say it again - he did not improve as a rookie and he just got fortunate more often than not in his big games. He threw for a ton of yards, sure. But he made bad decision on top of bad decision on top of bad decision and teams were barely making him pay for it. But that run of luck doesn't last forever, and as he stopped getting some of those breaks, he wasn't improving enough to keep it going all season. He still looks the same to me now as he did at the beginning of last year. Am I giving up on him? No. He's got great athleticism, a big arm and he can make plays. But am I going to say "don't bet against Cam Newton"? Not a chance, at the moment. In fact, that's exactly what I'm going to do.

I've never been a Cam fan, except for his play 60 commercial. He's a very good player, but I don't see him leading a team anywhere other than home for the playoff season. Atlanta has not played like a 11-1 team in the past few games, as Meat points out, but they are too deep to lose this game. I'd still be very cautious betting too much.

MEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -3.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Atlanta -3.5 $0

PHILADEPHIA +7.5 @ TAMPA BAY

This is just a hard week. I haven't seen a pick that I'd consider dripping wet, let alone a sizzler. This is another tough one.

I picked Philly to sizzle last week because I couldn't see the Dallas Cowboys in their current state beating a team by 10.5 without Michael Vick fumbling everything in sight. I don't feel the same way about the Bucs. Sure, they are no juggernaut, but they played Atlanta how I'd expect them to play Atlanta and they faded in the second half of a very tough road matchup against a damn good Broncos team. So I think I can trust them to easily handle a team they should easily handle.

Philadelphia has basically no defense, and Tampa has a few weapons that they can torch the Eagles with. Josh Freeman has rebounded this year, Vincent Jackson has had a few good games, Syracuse Mike Williams looks like an NFL receiver again, Doug Martin is just Doug Martin, and even Dallas Clark is getting involved. They can also play some defense and while Bryce Brown isn't going to fumble twice a game forever, they should be able to keep him from putting up 150 yards like he has been doing.

I just don't think that Philadelphia has the players to keep this one within 10 points. You think they'll stop Muscle Hamster? I don't.

I'm actually going against Meat in this pick. Not because I disagree with his points, but I think that Philly has made a lot of changes for the better and they are starting to work together. Brown, despite the fumbles has been a huge spark. I think they'll get to an early lead and hold it vs Tampa. But the points are the real reason I'm taking the birds.

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay -7.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Philly +7.5 $5

ST. LOUIS +3 @ BUFFALO

They still don't get any easier.

Saint Louis is on fire, by their standards. It's basically all on Janoris Jenkins and the defense...the touchdown or two that the offense put up against Arizona was a veritable scoring explosion by their standards. Buffalo, on the other hand, scores a ton of points at home. Yet, they are also very prone to turnovers. You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy that has been known to throw a few pick sixes, against a very recently opportunistic defense.

It's a tough call, but I think that Buffalo gets their points, and St. Louis struggles to get enough to match. It's going to be a nice day by Buffalo in December standards so you won't get any crazy weather creating weird results here. Buffalo has actually protected the ball as of late and really put it on Jacksonville last week, so I'll ride them this week to come through at home against a hot but still less-than-stellar opponent.

Ugh. I really don't have anything to say about this one. I'd probably just flip a coin. St. Louis is coming off a big win, so I'll stick with their momentum.

MEAT'S PICK: Buffalo -3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: St. Louis +3 $5


DALLAS +3 @ CINCINNATI

I need a Dallas win here, as a Pittsburgh fan. I am still not high on Cincinnati. Just getting that out of the way so you are aware of my biases here. You all think Andy Dalton is a really good, bordering on top-tier quarterback and I just find that funny. It makes me laugh. It amuses me.

AJ Green, however, is an elite, top-tier receiver. You can argue he's the best WR in the NFL and not look stupid. He's Fitz-lite. Yeah, you have your Julio Joneses out there who are athletically better than Green, but he just knows how to play receiver. He runs good routes. He catches balls. He goes up to get the ball. He makes catches happen that shouldn't happen. That's exactly what Larry Fitzgerald has been doing for years.

But really, that's all you get from Cincy offensively. The Law Firm? Good teams generally don't have much of a problem with Benjarvus. Now is Dallas a good team? Not really, but I'm still not to worried about his impact.

Dallas offensively has more weapons than Cincinnati, although they have a QB much more likely to throw 18 picks in a single game. Romo could throw for 450...Dalton won't. But Romo can also throw two pick-sixes to defensive tackles in a single quarter. Dalton won't do that. And if Romo does do that stupid Romo shit, Cincinnati has the defense to take advantage of it.

So, in my mind, this is basically a toss-up game. Cincinnati is home so they should get the 3 points that you'd expect in a coin-flip game. It's going to be 65 fucking degrees, so both teams will be able to get it to their guys on the outside. I'm going to take the recent emergence of Dez Bryant (who I think will be a fantasy steal next year, worthy of a second round pick) combined with my wishful thinking and take Dallas here. May throw down on the 'Boys on the moneyline.

As much as I would like AJ Green to get in a car wreck on the way to the game (Fantasy reasons), he'll probably have his standard game. I have no faith in anything that Dallas does.

MEAT'S PICK: Dallas +3, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Cincy -3.5 $10


MIAMI +10.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO

You may know what I think of Miami. Most boring team ever assembled, 4 or 5 years running now. No star power, no huge, gaping holes, no excitement, no nothing. For real...Reggie Bush is a star on this team. Do you know what Reggie Bush was in New Orleans? A punt returner who occasionally caught some swing passes on 3rd down. Darren Sproles came in, took his role and became a bigger name than Reg ever was in New Orleans. Throw this same underachiever in Miami, and yeah he's been running well, but now he's a fuckin' household name down here. Best player on the offense! Sizzle! Excitement! That's the state of the Dolphins.

Fact: They actually sell Bess jerseys in the team shop. Bess.....

Now, I am a bit surprised by this thread, given the performance of each team last week. I thought it would be lower. Vegas didn't overreact. That's why everything is shiny there and the drywall is made out of endangered Galapagos Turtle skin. So it's a tough call. But....Miami played pretty damn well by their standards last week, New England didn't....and they still lost by 7. San Francisco sucked and gave basically gave the Rams most of their points. Miami, traveling to the West Coast, playing pretty well and getting another subpar 49ers performance...may still lose by 10. So I'll play the odds here and imagine San Fran puts it all over the Fins.

I wasn't impressed by the Niners play last week. They are a solid team that could even make a super bowl run, but they seem to struggle with the under .500 teams. I like the big spread and I'll go with the fins away.

MEAT'S PICK: SF -10.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Miami +10.5 $5


NEW ORLEANS +4.5 @ NYG

Ok, remember what I said last week about New Orleans and Atlanta? Well, Atlanta held up their end of the bargain, but Drew Brees had probably the worst game of his entire life. Atlanta forces a ton of turnovers but...come on. That was just awful.

New York has been playing somewhat like the Falcons recently. I can't trust them. It's basically a repeat of last week in my mind, although I like NYG more than I like Atlanta. Still...in a vacuum, I like New Orleans to win this game. 

But...they really aren't playing for anything. They are out of it. And this game is HUGE for NYG. Their recent swoon has the Skins and Cowboys nipping at their heels.

I just can't get myself to put anything on this one. I'd take New Orleans if I had to, but in this exercise, I'm giving them the $0 chip.

No matter the outcome, I expect this to be a very good game. G-men need to win this one. Eli has better commercials than Brees this season even though he plays a fairy.

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +4.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: NYG -4.5 $0


ARIZONA +10.5 @ SEATTLE

Well, wouldn't you know...another tough pick. I still am not high on Seattle and I think this is way too much for them, even at home. But it's Arizona. Here's how bad the Arizona quarterback situation is: there's a line on this game, on Wednesday.

Yep. So what? SO WHAT!! Doug! Look at the Steelers lines. They have not been released over the last two weeks because no one knew if Charlie Batch or Roethlisberger would be starting. This would have swung the line by multiple points. If even Tony Romo or Andy Dalton were questionable, the oddsmakers would probably hold off.

But...Arizona? Who's it gonna be? Look at this: http://arizona.sbnation.com/arizona-cardinals/2012/12/4/3728788/nfl-cardinals-quarterback-john-skelton-ryan-lindley - everybody is in play this week. They could start Lindley again (and I think they do, which is why I'd consider Seattle here because he was just that transcendentally terrible last week), they could put Skelton back in, or, hey, Kevin Kolb is feeling better!

Kolb, Skelton, Lindley...who's it gonna be? No idea. And do you know what Vegas says? "Fuck it, make them a double-digit favorite". No clue who is starting and they are early 10.5 point favorites. They are just an awful team. It's hard to justify betting on them, even with a line that I think is way too high for their opponent. THEY JUST FUCKING LOST 7-6 TO THE NEW YORK JETS AND GREG MCELROY.  I don't know what to do here. I guess I'll save my money instead of betting on this awful team.

JOL that was a great analysis by the beefy one. There is nothing that I can add. I love taking any spread over 8 points so I'll agree with Meat.

MEAT'S PICK: Arizona +10.5, $0
HEAT'S PICK: Arizona +10.5, $0


DETROIT +6.5 @ GREEN BAY

Maybe I'll get to this, maybe I won't, but...Detroit is like the new San Diego. They just find ways to lose, and I think that should be enough for both teams to fire their coaches. Hell, Norv is years overdue on that front. So if Detroit were favored against a lesser opponent, that opponent would be my sizzler.

But...they also keep it close so that it is that much more of a back breaker when they do find those ways to lose. And this game, at the almost 7 point spread, seems to be right in their wheelhouse for that. Green Bay hasn't been playing thaaaaat well at home, and Detroit just always loses by a few points. This is perfect. Hell, Detroit may even pull the Lions-est move ever and win this tough, ultimately meaningless game. I'll throw more money into this black hole, why not.

FUCK DETROIT

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit +6.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: GB -6.5 $The USA's deficit 


HOUSTON +3.5 @ NEW ENGLAND

And this week finishes off just the way it started...impossible for me to decipher. I've had to weigh multiple picks in recent weeks for my sizzler. This week, I have none. I can't. I am going sans sizzler this week. If I had to pick one, I'd probably choose from Washington, Indy or maybe Buffalo/Tampa Bay...but I can't. I just can't call those sizzlers. I don't want to speak for Heat, but I imagine he may like Indy -5.5 to sizzle. But I'll let him confirm or deny that.

As to this one, I like New England but not as much as those other options.. I'm leaning toward NE winning relatively handily. Houston is good but...Green Bay threw all over them and I think if anyone else is going to do it, it's Thomas Brady, at home on a Monday night. Brady just became a father for the third time and, unlike Dad Roethlisberger, didn't need to fake an injury to go help deliver the baby like a fucking woman and instead has a manly, laser-sharp focus on football. That should be enough to beat Houston by 4.

Way too many Roethlisberger references in one blog. I honestly have no opinion on this game. I wouldn't bet anything on either side. I do lose most of my bets when I bet with my heart, but I can't even use my mind on this one. If you like Meat's argument, go with him. If not, enjoy the game like I will and hope that Andre gets 5 TDs.

MEAT'S PICK: NE -3.5, $25
HEAT'S PICK: Houston +3.5 $0

Tonight's Softball Line

Big game tonight. The Overtown Centerfielders travel to Mills Pond to take on the Master Batters. Let's break it down.

LINE: OVERTOWN +3.5, OVER/UNDER 22.5

Meat's pick: OVERTOWN +3.5 and UNDER


Line opened up at Overtown +2.5. Some Master Batters bet it up to 3.5. There are beers on the line here. This shit is intense.

Now, I gotta ride Overtown here. I like the way this team is starting to gel even though I hate their offense. I originally wanted to take the Over, but looking at the two teams and their combinations of decent defense (Master Batters at times play very good defense) and suspect offenses, I gotta go Under. I'm thinking like a narrow 11-10 Centerfielders win.

Overtown sports a nice top of the lineup and has some of the better power in the league, but they've still struggled to bring in runners. SS Chris Scurry has been a force for this team all season but other than that, they are a pretty inconsistent bunch. Their clean-up hitter has hit 5 HRs this season, but he's probably hit at least 10 shallow fly-outs. The lead-off guys can either go 4-4 or 0-4. CF Chad Van Horn has locked the lead-off spot up as of late, with 3B Larry Noel struggling in his chance and being moved back to his more familiar 5- or 6-hole. Larry is a guy that can give you a 1-4 with three weak ground outs or a solid 3-3 with 3 line drives. Chad was like that but now he's trying to man up and swing for the fences because it's manly. And because the Centerfielders are usually down by 7 at that point.

Outside of that, the Centerfielders saw the bottom of their line-up step up last week. 1B Tom Burkett had some solid drives and P Mike Aguanno hit an inside-the-park home run to go along with 5 innings of solid pitching (he had one rough inning, but don't we all). The Centerfielder ladies have had their ups-and-downs as well. If C Katie Lamberti, 2B Alana Lamberti and CF Jordan Joyce can get a little air under their hits and drop them in shallow outfield like at the beginning of the season, this team can be an offensive force. Their problem is inconsistency. They never seem to all put it together for a single game.

Defensively, the Centerfielders have looked much better as of late. Jordan and Chad have played some excellent outfield, Scurry's been his typical Hoover vacuum self, and Larry has made the tougher plays at third. This is why I'm leaning toward taking the under...you can't pop-up your way to 20 runs on this team anymore. The main way to beat them is to act like fucking douchebags and take walks.

Now, the Master Batters are a similar team to the Centerfielders, but they have a lot more consistency and experience. Like Overtown, the Batters have a lot of guys who can hit, but it seems like they never can all do it at once. Overtown saw that up close last week when teh usually dependable SS Brandt Shuler stepped in for them and weakly went like 0-3 along with some Titus Young-ian effort in right field. But he can usually hit, so you have to be careful with him. P/3B Max Mortarello and CF Jesse Morrow also have some big bats, but while they have a bit more power than Shuler, they lack the same consistency. This team has some excellent females who can hit and play anywhere on the diamond, so there's no gimmes in this line-up. They also make most of the plays on defense that they should. They are clearly more consistent on the defensive side of the ball than the Centerfielders, but I think the Centerfielders can make some of the highlight-reel plays that the Batters cannot.

So, while the public appears to prefer the experience, skill and consistency of the Batters, I'm taking the Centerfielders here to cover the 3.5 runs. Overtown does NOT walk, so their bats better be alive if they are going to make me look good here. I think they have it in them.


PICK: Overtown +3.5, $25


EDIT: I failed to consider the impact of the Master Batters' best pure hitter, C "Big Play" Ray Shuler. Big Play Ray may not get the headlines, but he's batting damn near 1.000 from what I've seen. The Centerfielders will have to limit his damage if they want a shot at a victory tonight.