Week 12 - Let's Get It

Heat and Meat getting off with a fucking BANG. Hi, I’m Meat and I’m going to break down some shit.
Now, the impetus for starting this blog was an NFL Survivor league. Surely you are familiar with how they work, or else you wouldn’t be reading our Dripping Wet picks. The picks so wet that they could slide a Honda Accord up Kerri Strug’s ass. The picks so moist that they could get Chamique Holdsclaw pregnant if she reads them. That drippy shit you’ll come to love from Heat and Meat.

But in case you aren’t, here’s how it works. You pick one winner every NFL week. Simple, right? Well, not entirely. Once you pick a team, they are done. You cannot pick them again. Seems easy, yet every year half of the league is eliminated by week 4. I am splitting one league with Heat, so I acquiesce and don’t adhere 100% to my rules. But here they are anyway:

1. Never, EVER take the consensus pick. Consensus picks swing entire leagues when they lose. And it’s going to happen…you do NOT want to get taken out with that wave. Off the top of my head, two consensus picks lost early this year, New England and New Orleans. Those losses killed leagues. You survive those losses and you have a chance to win by week 5. Just last week, Heat convinced me to go against my rule and take the Steelers over the Chiefs. We lucked out of that shit. Dallas almost got bit by this rule last week.

2. Don’t take shit-ass teams. This one’s new because I took Oakland against Jacksonville earlier this year. I figured one shit-ass team was less shit-ass than the other. We are lucky to be standing after that debacle.

3. That’s it. Really, I only have 1 rule and it’s number 1. Number 2 was an attempt to get another rule in and number 3 was just habit.

4. Jk

So that’s it. So who’s it gonna be this week?

TOP PICKS ACCORDING TO YAHOO:

1	Denver	53.92%53.92%
2	Cincinnati	22.61%22.61%
3	Indianapolis	7.25%7.25%
4	New England	5.55%5.55%
5	Chicago	2.12%2.12%
6	Seattle	1.33%1.33%
7	Pittsburgh	1.12%1.12%
8	Baltimore	1.05%1.05%
9	Tennessee	0.88%0.88%
10	Houston	0.88%

We already took Denver, but they’d be out if we hadn’t. In fact, we’ve taken NE and Chicago as well.
So that leaves two choices: Cincinnati or Indianapolis. Both are home. On paper, it appears to be an easy choice: Cincinnati. Cincinnati hosts awful shit-ass Oakland while Indianapolis welcomes the Bills to their fuckawful city. And come on, Oakland just plain sucks horsetaint. Oakland puts entire horsecocks in their mouths while still finding room to slip that tongue out and gently mouth-stroke that taint. They are the James Buchanan of football.

But..CP3 returns to Cincinnati!!! Heat is psyched. Should I care? I don’t think I should. So I’ll eliminate the spectre of some out-of-body Carson Palmer experience just because he’s back in his old sucking grounds.
Looking at Indianapolis, I’m willing to ignore their bad loss last week in New England. New England is good. They have Tom Brady. The Colts have no pass defense. Game, set, match, clearly. Before that, the Colts have been winning games but it has not been pretty. They have only one loss at home but it was to Jacksonville and while they did beat the Packers there, they have no wins by more than, like, 4. That being said, Buffalo is not better than any of those teams that they beat and while I don’t think that it will be a decisive victory, I do think the Colts will win. Combining that with 7.5% of people picking them, they are an attractive choice. They can be passed on but the Bills typically shoot themselves in the foot, so I think they’ll do so enough here to cost themselves the game.

Now for Cincinnati. The Bengals are “hot”, mainly because they throttled a struggling Giants team at home and then didn’t lose to Cincinnati. But right before that Giants game, me and Heat took Denver (on Heat’s suggestion) to win in Cincinnati and, lo and behold, they did. Recency bias combined with Oakland being awful has anyone who hasn’t picked Denver yet going for Cincinnati. 25% is a significant number and makes Indianapolis look good at 7%.

Cincinnati has been much more up and down than Indianapolis. The Colts barely beat the teams that they should at home and then get throttled by decent teams on the road. Cincy though, who knows. While the Raiders have been bad, they imploded against Baltimore and New Orleans has the kind of offense that the Bengals can only dream about. So I don’t think they’ll implode again and they should move the ball on the Bengals like all teams that can throw have done so far this year.

I think I like the Bengals more, but the numbers say that this is one of those games that swings survivor leagues. Everybody who picked Denver so far will be pounding Cincinnati. And it’s a game that the Bengals can lose. So I’m gonna take a chance and cast my lot with Indianapolis.

Meat’s Sizzling Picks coming later.