Meat's Dripping Wet Week 13 Picks

So I'm 6-7 after week one with a cheap +$0 "win" total. Because I threw like 200 fake bills down on Carolina. Whatever.

After last week, I've got some new rules. My bets are either $0, $25, or $50. Be confident to throw down at least $25 or avoid said game completely.

So let's go. This week I'll use topbet.com for my lines.


NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) @ ATLANTA

I'm not the biggest Atlanta fan. I still think New Orleans is decent, even after SF took it to them and picked off Captain Birthmark for two pick-sixes.

A lot of teams have gone into Atlanta and taken the Falcons to the doorstep of defeat. And these have been fuckawful teams. Hell, even Peyton Manning and the Broncos did everything they could to give that game to the Falcons and they still almost blew it. So, I think New Orleans wins this game straight-up. Giving me 3.5? Hell yeah, I'll take that. This pick is DRIPPING THE FUCK WET.

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +3.5, $50.



SEATTLE (+6.5) @ CHICAGO

Topbet doesn't have a line on this, so I'll use the one that Heat found. Chicago is just about a TD favorite.

Heat apparently loves Young Insulin, and while I don't love him as much as Heat does, I do think he's done pretty damn well this year all things considered. The Bears do not block. Their line is a damn sieve. They are like the walls in the second quest of Zelda because you can just walk through them.

I bet against the Bears last week and they slaughtered Minnesota, right in my face. I'm tempted to do it again because the line is so big, but I can't. Seattle is not a good road team and Chicago keeps killing me. So I'm gonna leave this one alone this week.

MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -6.5, $0

EDIT: This was a Heat line, so it's completely fabricated. I'll update this later when the real spread comes out. If it's significantly lower than Seattle +6.5, Chicago may start to sizzle.

EDIT 2 (Thursday): The real line is Chicago +3.5. I like that better. Chicago's been killing me, I'm gonna give them a shot this week.

MEAT'S UPDATED PICK ON THURS. 11/29: Chicago +3.5, $25



MINNESOTA (+9) @ GREEN BAY 

Green Bay forgot to play last week against NYG, but I'm not going to hold that against them and apparently, neither is Vegas. I think this is way too much for a team that has not really blown anybody out at home this year. Jacksonville almost beat them in their own house. Minnesota is a young team but, after the Mark Chmura incident, Green Bay refuses to take advantage of young people in their own house.

I hate Ponder but I think the Vikings keep it within 9. Heat loves those big lines but I generally do not. I'll probably bet against all of them this week.

Actually, I changed my mind. I don't like this one so I'll save my fake money. 

MEAT'S PICK: Minnesota +9, $0




SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS (+7)

This one is tough. St. Louis is better but they aren't that good. San Francisco just tied St. Louis in SF but that's not to be expected.

So I'm just going to ignore that. San Francisco IS that much better than St. Louis, and I think they win by at least a TD. I am picking this bet now because it's a fucking fake betting blog, but if I were to bet for real...I'd wait to see that Kaepernick is starting for SF. If Alex Smith is starting, I probably don't touch this game because he has the ability to turn anything into a close game. But not in the good way. He's just simply not the best option and the sooner Harbaugh commits to Kaepernick the better for San Fran. He doesn't even have a cool nickname like Smitty or Cumlord. Think I'd bet against the Cumlord? Doubt it.

MEAT'S PICK: San Francisco -7, $25



ARIZONA (+4.5) @ NYJ

Do I need to explain this? The Jets are favored by 4.5? I don't care if they are playing inside of Rex Ryan's colon, I cannot throw money on a favored Jets team.

Ryan Lindley looked good last week when he wasn't throwing pick-sixes to Janoris Jenkins. I think he'll be better. And I think the Jets are disgustingly bad. Sanchez and company will struggle to move the ball on Arizona. And to not turn it over.

Dear Lord. Yeah, I'll take the points. (image from Deadspin.com)

MEAT'S PICK: Arizona +4.5, $25



CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY (+3)

This one's dripping wet. Kansas City losing by 3 would almost count as an upset.

Now...I know Kansas City's weakness is turnovers. And Carolina doesn't exactly have a stout D.

(No idea where Heat's lines are coming from, by the way...he has this one at -7.5????)

So, I should expect KC to keep it close or maybe even win. But I don't. Brady Quinn does not keep it close and maybe even win. He throws bounce passes that would make John Stockton's dick hard. You have to be pro-choice to even watch Brady Quinn play a full series. Which is usually three plays. Denver did basically nothing last week and still won by 8 in Kansas City. I bet on teams to show up and play at least their B games, and if both of these teams do so, Carolina should not have too much of a problem. This pick is dripping wet, yo.

 MEAT'S PICK: Carolina -3, $50




INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) @ DETROIT

As I mentioned last week, Indianapolis gets throttled almost regularly on the road. And while I do hate the Lions, I did expect them to play well last week and beat Houston. They arguably should have. And Houston did not play bad by any stretch. So why should the Lions have any problem with Indianapolis?

Andrew Luck has had a great rookie season, but that's it. It is not a great season by regular standards. He got some help to beat Buffalo last week, which happened basically exactly how I thought it would, and exactly how most Colts home games have played out. So I'm going to bet on the norms holding this week and Detroit taking care of business easily at home.

This game is my choice for survivor. Less than 1.5% of Yahoo users are taking Detroit this week. Heat disagrees, so we'll have to discuss that before Thursday's noon deadline. But I personally love Detroit to win this matchup. Second choice is probably Carolina, for reasons detailed above. The reason I prefer this to Carolina for survivor? I think I'm better more on Detroit whereas in the other case, where I'm better more against Kansas City.

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit -4.5, $25



JACKSONVILLE (+6) @ BUFFALO

Jacksonville has been riding the arm of Chad "Downtown" Henne (feels so weird to type that) and they are looking like a real team. However, this is one of the games where Fitzpatrick has one of this few 400-yard plus, 30+ points for Buffalo game.

But...even if I assume this will happen, I am also going to bet on Jacksonville continuing to look like an NFL team. Against Buffalo's newly-upgraded, still sieve-like defense, they should be able to keep within 6. Basically...I'll just take the points.

MEAT'S PICK: Jax +6, $25



NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI (+7.5)

Seriously Heat, where are you getting your lines? Unless otherwise noted, I can place these bets right now. Hell, I just took the Steelers at Topbet to win the Super Bowl at -4000 odds ($25 to win a G).

But as far as Heat's analysis, I concur. NE should roll over Miami.

MEAT'S PICK: New England -7.5, $25



HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE (+5.5)

Heat, you need new lines. I thought there was an overabundance of double-digit lines there. Double-digit lines are somewhat rare in the NFL...hell, Denver only got 10.5 at KC last week.

Anyway, Houston is still playing well and Tennessee is still Tennessee. Jacksonville fell back to Earth a little bit last week but still handled Tennessee at home. Jax needed a herculean effort to force OT against Houston. I don't think Tennessee is capable of said herculean effort. Chris Johnson rushes for over 200 inches and Houston wins by at least a TD.

MEAT'S PICK: Houston -5.5, $25



TAMPA BAY (+7) @ DENVER

This is too much, I think. Vegas must really love the effect of the Denver air. Heat has this game at TB +3.5. The fuck, man.

I've loved Tampa over the past few weeks. I took them early last week when the line had them as a pick 'em against Atlanta. They had a decent effort and nearly pulled that game out. I think they are capable of staying within 7 against Denver, but I'm not wholly confident. I'm 25 fake dollars confident, I guess.

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay +7, $25



PHILADELPHIA (+9) @ DALLAS

+9? Have yinz seen Dallas this year? PLUS NINE??? I know Philly sucks, but so does Dallas.

Now, Carolina's been losing but playing well. I figured they'd wax the struggling Eagles last night. But...these aren't the same struggling Eagles. Nick Foles can't throw a spiral but he's not fumbling and throwing picks. Bryce Brown is fumbling, but when he's not he's running all over teams. It's not the same Philly that we saw over the past few weeks. Now, they aren't great or anything, but they are good enough to stay within 9 of Dallas, even if they are playing at the Bed the Romo Shit. As I've said before, I don't see Dallas as having any sort of home field advantage. And I don't think it's through any particular fault of their own - I've just read that teams love going in there to play the Cowboys.

I'm not quite willing to make this pick dripping wet, but I will put 50 fake ones on it.

MEAT'S PICK: Philly +9, $50



NYG @ WASHINGTON (+2.5)

I don't think this spread is high enough. I don't see New York losing this game, and if they win by a field goal, I win on the spread.

RGIII is awesome. He was awesome in the first matchup against the Giants. But it still wasn't enough then and I don't think it will be enough now, even with Garcon back. This is the Monday nighter so if you think there's anything to big time pressure situations like that, you'd give that advantage to the G-men, I'd think.

MEAT'S PICK: NYG -2.5, $25




CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO (+1)

As a Steeler fan, I kind of need Cincinnati to lose this one. And I think they will.

Basically, I'm going against my own advice and betting on the Chargers to NOT find a way to lose. I'm not sold by any stretch on the Bengals - they've been the next big thing since like, 200-fucking-4 now. First they were the bad boy upstart Bengals, and that blew up. Then they became the morally upstanding Bengals, and I loved those Bengals because they well-behaved themselves to 4-12 seasons. Then they became the power running Bengals, but they weren't good enough to pull that off and it lead to 10-6 at best, early playoff exit seasons. Now they are the young upstart Bengals, but since they aren't criminals it doesn't look to blow up this time. They do have AJ Green, and he's awesome. But...I think the 2005 Bengals wax this Bengals team. They aren't as talented as people think they are. They had a nice win against NYG, but the other two blowouts were against teams that get blown out in half of their games. The week before the NYG game, Heat and I gladly took Denver to beat them in their own house for survivor and never really thought twice about it. Even thought they only lost by a touchdown in the end. And it's not like Denver played particularly well that day.

I am not high on Andy Dalton. I am not buying the Bengals and will not until I have to. As this pick is based strongly on emotion both ways, I'm not going to attach any money to it. But I see the Chargers getting the win here as a slight home dog.

MEAT'S PICK: San Diego +1, $0


Cleveland-Oakland and Pittsburgh-Baltimore do not have lines, and I don't trust Heat's, so I'll come back tomorrow and throw those picks out there. Along with, I guess, anointing one of these bad boys as my sizzler of the week.