Thursday, September 25, 2014

HOLY F-ING S IT'S BEEN FOREVER



It's been fucking AGES since I left yinz with smoking wet bets to make your money fornicate to. I apologize. I will now rectify the shit out of that.

Putting down 7 bets this week, playas. For accounting purposes, assume I bet $100 per bet:


1. BAYLOR @ IOWA STATE OVER 71.5

Dudes, Baylor hits every single queefing over to the point that I have no idea why books keep offering them. They wizened up last week with Oregon (over was above 80 for the Ducks last week), but Baylor will probably beat ISU 70-3, just barely pushing it over 71.5. And just barely paying me sweet, sexy off-shore betting cash.


2. NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS OVER 53.5

This should be easy. Dallas is still scoring and still giving up a shit ton of points. Hell, even in coming back and beating St. Louis last week they gave up 31. New Orleans has been struggling a little bit but even a struggling Saints team should put 40 on Dallas. I was expecting this over to be in the 60s.

This one should be pushing 40 by halftime. I'm on board.


3. PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO OVER 50.5

I am loving some overs this week. Philadelphia keeps getting overs in the 50s and they keep going over them, easily. San Francisco isn't 2012 SF. They should give up points.

I'm going to keep pounding Philly and Baylor overs until they give me reason not to do so. MAKE IT DRIZZLE


4. JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO OVER 44.5

STOP BETTING OVERS, MEAT! I can't. They are so burning wet that I can't avoid them.

This one I don't get. I understand SD is all about ball control and whatnot, but Jacksonville won't allow that. Their defense is so bad that the Chargers will have to fall on purpose to hold the ball for 35 minutes. Jacksonville has given up what, 35-40+ in each of the first three weeks? Why won't that continue? In-between picks, Blake Bortles should put up 17 himself. This one seems criminally low.


5. TENNESSEE +7.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS

This seems like an easy Indy bet, but I don't really believe that. Tennessee has talent and only seems to put it together when they aren't supposed to (see week 1 - I had a feeling the Titans would win that one), and I think they might be Mr. Hyde this week. Plus, Indianapolis outside the dropped-interception whisperer Andrew Luck himself is just a shitty team. Their roster is garbage outside of like 5 players, to the point that they gave Gosder motherfucking Cherilus like $40 mil. I don't think the Colts deserve to get 7.5 against anybody not named Jacksonville.



6. NYG +3.5 @ WASHINGTON

Just because Kirk Cousins is in doesn't make Washington suddenly not suck. They are like Indianapolis without the boy wonder QB. The Giants may suck too but they suck less and I like them to win this one straight-up.

If DeAngelo Hall were playing...I'd put even more money on the Giants. Let's go Eli, try not to grimace too much you droopy motherfucker.


7. NYG @ WASHINGTON OVER 46.0 

Might as well close it out with an over. Both these teams suck more on defense than offense, and they have been putting up big point totals in recent weeks. No reason for that to stop here, as the best defensive player on the field will probably be somebody boring like Brian Orakpo. These teams have some godawful rosters on that side of the ball especially.


So that's that! Oh, survivor pick:

PITTSBURGH

I am not taking San Diego because I don't take the consensus (Heat is all over that one though) and this week like, 70% of people are taking SD. Upsets happen and when they do in a game like this, 70% of people are out with them. If taking the consensus got you to the top, everybody would finish the season undefeated. But they don't. The key to survivor, IMO, is avoiding those few games that decimate pools.

I don't love Pittsburgh because they don't deserve your confidence and Tampa strangely matches up well against them - tall WRs to get pass interferences, good running game, and a shitty QB who makes shitty reads because the Steelers don't get interceptions and therefore shitty QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick have like 9 lives against them to retardedly gunsling) - but they are playing at home and should win this one.

Also considered: New Orleans @ Dallas, Houston (guh) v. Buffalo

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