Pedro's going to hit 50 this year. Assuming he makes contact 50 times.
Ahhh, that time of year. MLB over/under win totals for 2013 came out! Actually, they came out last Friday, but I'm just finally getting around to them. 'Cause I have a fuckin' job, brah.
Anyway, let's go. I'll give each prediction one (low), two (med.) or three (high) stars based on my confidence in the pick.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 81.5
Arizona was 81-81 last year. Perfectly average. So you'd think it would be easy to just look at the numbers and see if they over- or under-performed last year, factor in a regression to the mean, and collect your winnings. But not so fast! Arizona hopped all up on the grit express and shipped out basically all of their talent for gritsters. Guys who play the game the right way. Guys who eat, breathe and ejaculate baseball. Those guys. The ones you build champions around.
However, in moving Justin Upton, they didn't get a return of prospects like you'd expect. Instead, they got a mix of decent players who play positions of need. While they shipped out Trevor Bauer, he really wasn't a part of last year's team. They also added Brandon McCarthy. They get to play the Rockies a lot. Who knows what to expect of the Dodgers. I can't see SF doing what they did again. I actually like this team winning, say, 84 or so games, being in contention late, and having the Joe Morgan gritster types cumming all over themselves about how you can only judge baseball players with your eyes and you need guys that love baseball and sleep with baseballs shoved in their asses. I know this is going to happen.
OVER - 2 stars
- Atlanta Braves 86
The recipients of the Upton deal, the Braves created a hole by including Prado. The outfield is stacked out of their minds, but...without Bourne, exactly how much did they improve by signing Beej Upton? Did they improve at all? Will they continue to throw lights out on the mound?
Well....I think so. They are the Braves. They always fucking do. They play in a division that includes the Nationals and a bunch of shit teams after that. Well, Phillies are iiiiite. They play the damn Mets and Marlins on the reg. They should win over 86, I think. I see Jason Heyward going off. OVER.
OVER - 2 stars
- Baltimore Orioles 76.5
Hmmm. Vegas didn't fall for their miracle season last year. Kind of thought this would be an easy one. They won 93 games last year and it was a complete fluke based on one-run games but, I mean, 76.5? The offense last year was not a fluke. They have a bunch of good-hitting 20-somethings in their lineup. It's the pitching that concerns me. It wasn't great but it was average, however, it's full of no-names. It's not a bunch of league average pitchers who league averaged their way through a season league average-ally. It's a bunch of sucky starters who fluked their way to league average and won a bunch of one-run games with a bullpen that was lights the fuck out. Fangraphs had a post recently that showed that teams like this, teams that basically win off of the strength of a lights-out bullpen tend to regress mightily the following seasons. Remember when the White Sox won the World Series off that shizz? And seriously, look at Baltimore's pen from last season. It was lights out. The top 5 guys there threw 331.5 innings of basically 2.45 ERA baseball. That's like 22% of the entire total innings the team pitched. That's insane. It's going down.
But....76.5? That's too low. I see Baltimore as a 78-82 win team that overachieved. The division is going to be somewhat down again this year compared to previous years (outside of the Blue Jays, who went crazy this offseason). This isn't the 2009 AL East they are playing in. I'm taking the over again.
OVER - 2 stars.
- Boston Red Sox 79.5
A large-market team, actually rebuilding. Now, while they did hover around .500 last season until a spectacular collapse down the stretch, I still don't think there's anything to be afraid of on this roster. I'm going to take an under on them.
UNDER - 2 stars
- Chicago Cubs 72
I didn't see the Cubs being good last year. I don't see them as good this year. I don't see them as good next year or the year after or the year after. They have some guys coming up but most of their prospects seem to have failed to live up to expectations (that's what most baseball prospects do). I think they win somewhere in the 60s again, although it's tough to be thaaaat sure in the NL. The Central is a bit tougher this year with no Houston, though. So let's under them up as well.
UNDER - 2 stars
- Chicago White Sox 80.5
White Sox! I actually followed them last year. Now, there was another Fangraphs post about how the Sox have consistently, over the past 7 or so years, exceeded pre-season expectations. But I'm going to chalk that up to relative coincidence. Because I think this team falls flat on it's face this year. This is probably my MLB over/under sizzler. It's dripping wet.
For the first third or so of the season, Paul Konerko was basically Hall of Fame. Like, he was Stan fuckin' Musial through the end of June. Adam Dunn earned comeback player of the year before the All-Star break. The pitching was great - Chris Sale was a normal-year ROY candidate and finished 6th in the Cy voting. Peavy was uninjured and threw 220 innings of 120+ ERA+ ball. Jose Quintana? Gavin Floyd? None of this is going to happen again. AJ Pierzinsky had a career year. He's gone and wouldn't come close to duplicating it again if he weren't. This team started to sink down the stretch last year, and now they are all a year older and that slippage is going to continue hardcore into this year. This team is going to BLOW. I'm gonna put actual monies on this one.
UNDER - 3 STARS
- Cincinnati Reds 88.5
This team is as good as advertised. Yeah, the pitching could regress, and Chapman is no longer in the 'pen so they'll play far fewer 8 inning games, but they do get Votto back healthy and they add Hee-Sop Choi and they get Chapman as a starter and they play the Cubs a lot and I think they win 90 again. Unless Cueto is hurt for reals and Bailey regresses and Bronson Arroyo....ahhhh fuck it I like them, let's just get that hot, sexy over.
OVER - 2 stars
- Cleveland Indians 77.5
No idea what to think of them. They blew ass last year. They were good at the very start of the season but then they fell apart (man, the AL Central was awful). Their pitching is AWFUL. Awwwwwfulllll. Yeah, they added some nice hitters to their lineup and stole Trevor Bauer from the DBacks for a light-hitting all-glove shortstop, but is it enough? I don't know. I don't think so but I'd save my money.
UNDER - 1 star
- Colorado Rockies 71.5
This team sucks. How are they going to win 70 games? How? Someone please explain it to me. Actually, I'll let Vegas explain it to me. Money talks, bitches!
UNDER - 3 STARS
*2/22/13 correction: wrote OVER instead of UNDER. Clearly, I want the under on these douchers.
- Detroit Tigers 90
Detroit 'underachieved' last regular season and 'slept-walked' their way to an '88-74' regular season record. While Cabrera won't win the triple crown again, the rest of them (and no more Delmon Young) should pick their games up and hit 90 wins pretty easily. Especially given the way the rest of the division sucks. I expect the pitching staff to be better as a whole, too. This is like a 2.5 star pick.
OVER - 2 stars
- Houston Astros 59.5
Fighting Miami for worst team ever. Playing in the AL West. Getting beat down on the reg. I think they win 7 games. 2.5 star pick.
UNDER - 2 stars
- Kansas City Royals 79
I don't see it. What the fuck are they doing raiding the farm to build up a 72-win team? They are still starting Jeff Francouer. Another Cleveland type pick in that I'm not too confident but gut feeling, I don't see it. I hate the AL Central. Least favorite divish.
UNDER - 1 star
- Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Underachieved to 89 wins last year. Added Hamilton, but will Trout still be all-world? Will Pujols show up on time this year? I don't know. I think under but it's not a very strong conviction.
UNDER - 1 star
- Los Angeles Dodgers 90
Fuck these jokers. I love watching them crash and burn. They added every piece last season and still sucked down the stretch. Couldn't even get a wild card? So you think adding Grienke is going to put these sad sacks over the top? I bet they disappoint again. At least I hope they do. Keep batting Dee Gordon leadoff, Mattingly. He's fast!
UNDER - 1 star
- Miami Marlins 64.5
Way, wayyyyyyyyy under. This is not an MLB team. This is a joke. This team was a joke last year and this year is the punchline. How in the fuck are they going to win 65 games when actual legit MLB teams didn't win 65 games last year? This is a travesty. They may be worse than Houston. No one is going to pitch to Stanton. He's going to hit 14 HRs with a .748 on-base percentage. And then he'll be stranded every inning by Logan Morrison's annoying ass. I unfollowed Morrison on Twitter because he is such a d-bag.Stanton may wish that Morrison un-follows him in the lineup.
UNDER - 3 STARS
- Milwaukee Brewers 79.5
Guhhhh. This team sucked last year, pretty much gave up on the season, and STILL won 83 games. They just hit lights out in their park, no matter who they have in the lineup with Braun. Assuming he's not suspended for doing steroids again. I know Corey Hart is out for a bit and their pitching is a bit of a question mark but they always win 80 games and should do it again.
OVER - 2 stars
- Minnesota Twins 64.5
I don't know. Based on the fact that I have everybody else in this stupid division collapsing (well, outside of Detroit), I should expect a slight bump for Minnesota, right? Sure.
OVER - 1 star
- New York Mets 74
They won 74 games last year, and they are going to suck harder this year. Why not even re-sign Scott Hairston for the $2.5 mil a year that he wanted? And no Dickey? He won like, 30% of their games last season. Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey had better be as advertised. I'm taking that under.
UNDER - 2 stars.
- New York Yankees 86.5
Taking the over just based on Yankee-ness. They shouldn't be anything special but they should probably find a way to win 87. Right? No Swisher, no A-Rod, no....whoever the fuck else...ahhh they always win I'll just take a win.
OVER - 1 star
- Oakland Athletics 83
I don't think they were that flukey last year when they won 94. Losing McCarthy hurts, and Reddick may not hit like he did last year, but Cespedes should take a huge step forward and they also get to play the Astros a lot. I'm only giving this a star because of how crazy unexpected last season was but I do think they'll win at least 85.
OVER - 1 star
- Philadelphia Phillies 81.5
81-81 last year, in a disappointing season. Now they have a healthy-ish Howard (who is overrated but should still help), a Chase Utley that says he's better now, and an adderall addict at catcher who exploded onto the scene offensively last season. Can he do it again? Maybe. They should go over .500 at least. Unless, of course, they give Delmon Young 600 ABs. They probably will.
OVER - 2 stars
- Pittsburgh Pirates 79
Fuck. The Buccos. I expect them to break the under-.500 streak this year, making this an obvious over. They added a lot of depth to the pitching staff. The young hitters are a year older and more advanced.
But...they collapsed two years in a row. 2011 made sense but 2012 was a straight up fucking nightmare collapse. There's a chance Andrew McCutchen put up a career-year that he'll never duplicate. I am only giving them one star, because, well....they are the Pirates.
OVER - 1 star
- San Diego Padres 74.5
They seem to have themselves a decent team but still only won 76 last year. One of their young guys was just suspended for 50 games. I don't know. I expect them to win more than 75. If even just because, well, they should.
OVER - 2 stars
- San Francisco Giants 86
I don't know how they do it. I don't think they'll do it again. But 86 games isn't "it". Will Lincecum continue to suck? If he doesn't, that will make up for Zito going full-Zito in 2013. I guess I'd have to say over. But with next-to-no confidence.
OVER - 1 star
- Seattle Mariners 76.5
Justin Upton saved Jack Z from himself, and they may have gotten a smidge better this offseason. Maybe. However, I don't think the rest of the division is as good this year as it was last year. Plus Houston comes into town. Assuming King Felix doesn't fall apart, they should win more than the 75 games they won last year.
OVER - 2 stars
- St. Louis Cardinals 85.5
They seem to consistently run between 82 and 90 wins. So this is a toss-up. And I'll hope for the Buccos sake that it tosses down. They have a bunch of great young players on the way, so in 2014 watch out, but in 2013 I'm gonna saddle them with a down year.
UNDER - 1 star
- Tampa Bay Rays 86
They won 90 last year, but needed a late hot streak to do it. They also traded away their second best pitcher, who even if he were still there would be hard-pressed to match his 2012 performance over 220 innings. Plus, Fernando Rodney randomly had like, the greatest relief season in history. Really, take a look at it. It was in-fuckin'-sane. Coupled with the loss of BJ Upton, and Wil Myers being a 2014-and-on pick up, I don't think having Evan Longoria healthy at the start of the season is enough. They may struggle to hit .500 this season.
UNDER - 2 stars
- Texas Rangers 87
This team lost a lot. And didn't really add anything. Half-hearted under, even though they get to play Houston.
UNDER - 1 star
- Toronto Blue Jays 86.5
I don't like super teams, but seeing other teams in the division slip, and all that they have added, I feel like they should easily win 87, no? Don't really need to rehash what they've done. Everybody knows they added the Marlins.
OVER - 2 stars
- Washington Nationals 90
And, finally, Washington. This team is stacked. Bryce Harper will be a year better. The pitching is young and awesome. Strasburg gets to pitch 700 innings this season. Another one that needs little explanation, and I see them fighting for 100 wins this season.
OVER - 3 stars
You trust Big Daddy Meat, don't you? Go spend yo' cash!
