Week 13 Betting Recap

I hate that I have to do this, because once again I sucked. Much worse than last week, too.

Once again, if you want to make money...check out my bets and do the exact opposite. And then go fuck yourself with a blunt object.

Let's check the carnage.


PHILADELPHIA +10 @ DALLAS

MY BET: PHI +10, $50

WHAT HAPPENED: Philadelphia was winning this game late, but once again Bryce Brown fumbled it away. But he only fumbled it away by 5, so at least I hit my sizzler.

RUNNING TOTAL: +$50



NEW ORLEANS +3.5 @ ATLANTA

MY BET: NO +3.5, $50

WHAT HAPPENED: Had this one dripping wet. Atlanta cannot put teams away, and once again they proved it. 5 picks, no TDs from Brees and Atlanta barely holds on to win by 10. An overturned fumble return nullified what would have been a lucky backdoor cover and then Brees threw his 5th fucking interception of the game. The fuck...I feel like I bet on Ty Detmer or something. Surprisingly given his performance, Drew Brees was not the NFL player to kill himself this weekend.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$0




SEATTLE +3.5 @ CHICAGO

MY BET: CHI -3.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: Didn't watch much of this one because I was transfixed on the Lions-Colts, the peanuts and the free dick all around me at Sidelines, so all I know is that Seattle won this in OT. I bet against Chicago solely because they'd been killing me and now they kill me this way when I finally pick them. I hope Jay Cutler chokes on his insulin.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$25, 1-2



MINNESOTA +9 @ GREEN BAY

MY BET: Minnesota +9, $0

WHAT HAPPENED: Minnesota played well - Adrian Peterson continues to beast on teams - but they Pondered all of their late chances and this game ended in a push. Ponder looked like he may be ok early in the season but now it's clear he just completely fucking sucks. Can't believe he went 12th overall. Even Cade McNown can't believe Ponds went that early in the draft.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$25, 1-2



SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS +7

MY BET: SF -7, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: If Alex Smith were playing, I take St. Louis. Colin Kaepernick, I figured, would run through this team pretty easily. Instead, he looked like Alex Smith. St. Louis upset SF in OT. I lose again.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$50, 1-3



ARIZONA +4.5 @ NYJ

MY BET: AZ +4.5, $25 (basically not NYJ -4.5)

WHAT HAPPENED: Nothing happened. Game ended 7-6 NYJ, Mark Sanchez got pulled and then Greg McElroy came in and hit 2 home runs with 5 RBIs. Great performance and excellent pitching by Shonn Greene. Arizona couldn't knock in the tying run in the bottom of the ninth. This game was probably what the Trail or Tears looked like if it were converted into a football game.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$25, 2-3



CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY +3

MY BET: Carolina -3, $50. Dripping wet.

WHAT HAPPENED: Took this one before the KC craziness. Not sure what I would have done if I were to look at this game on Saturday after the murder suicide ploy by Romeo Crennel. Either way, KC looked like a real team and Carolina continued to lose. Jamaal Charles made some positive yards. Brady Quinn had a very good, efficient stat line at QB. Let me repeat that...BRADY FUCKING QUINN PLAYED REALLY GOOD AT QB. Sometimes, betting on football games sucks goat ass.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$75, 2-4



INDIANAPOLIS +4.5 @ DETROIT

MY BET:  DET -4.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: A lot of fucked up shit happened. Detroit had this easily until just giving it away at the end. Detroit finds ways to lose. I may expand on this later. I may not. I don't know if I can find the willpower to do it. This team can suck me. There goes survivor. Fuck you Detroit. I hope Titus Young singlehandedly just ruins this team.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$100, 2-5




JACKSONVILLE +6.5 @ BUFFALO

MY BET: JAX +6.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: The clock struck midnight and Jacksonville went back to being Jacksonville. I knew Buffalo was occasionally capable of putting up a good offensive performance, I just bet against it being this week because it rarely happens. It happened this week.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$125, 2-6



NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI +7.5

MY BET: NE -7.5

WHAT HAPPENED: Miami looked surprisingly competent, but it wasn't enough to really make this game that close. It was enough, however, to lose by only 7 and cover by a half of a fucking point. Damn it to fucking heck.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$150, 2-7



HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE +5.5

MY BET: HOU -5.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: Surprised I didn't make this a sizzler, as I put real money on it. It seemed like easy money, and it was. Houston never had any trouble in this game.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$125, 3-7



TAMPA +7 @ DENVER

MY BET: TB +7, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: Tampa was looking good and keeping it close through half time, but Denver just pounded them in the second half. They only covered by a point, but the game was not that close. Another cum-dripping loss. I should never put actual money on this shit.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$150, 3-8



NYG @ WASHINGTON +2.5

MY BET: NYG -2.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED: Washington looked like they'd lose this one, but they held strong and kept the Giants off the board for much of the second half. A surprising defensive struggle, given how much Washington's defense sucks. Puts me at a sexy 3-9 for the week. Lovely.

RUNNING TOTAL: -$175, 3-9


So there you have it. If you would have read this blog and bet the exact opposite (like I told you to do), you would have made about $175 minus vigs and just fuckin' killed it this week. So keep that in mind when it comes time to place those sexy week 14 wagers. Listen...I'll bring you the beef. I'll even season it. But it's your job to cook it.



WEEK: 3-9, -$175

YEAR TO DATE: 9-16, - $175

SUCK MY: genitals

DETROIT CAN SUCK ON MY POST-CUM




Kansas City: So the big story this weekend was Javon Belcher not knowing how to use his words and then taking his own life in front of an audience. So far all the news reports are talking about how amazing a person he was. Well this amazing person just murdered a 22 year old woman and left a 3 month old child without parents. NBCNews.com wrote, "[Belcher] was a great role model who worked well with children".  I understand trying to preserve the memory of the dead, but don't take away from how terrible his last actions on this planet were. With one decision he immediately changed the lives of countless people, leaving only questions.

Cleveland: A ground's keeper takes his own life at the Brown's practice facility. But, no one gives the slightest fuck because he has zero career tackles for the Browns.  With stats like that, he could have probably been Coly McCoy's back up.  Sorry life was tough groundskeeper Bill, but you offed yourself on the wrong day if you wanted attention.

Wilton Manors: That's enough steam from Heat. Now onto the pressing matters and how much the city of Detroit sucks at everything. I will NEVER put faith in a Detroit area sports team (Red Wings excluded) because they will actively find a way to lose.  Fuck the Tigers. Fuck em! The A's came back only to lose to Verlander, who has an uncharacteristically shut down game in the postseason, only to get swept in the World Series. Screw you, Miguel. I hope they find any kind of drug in your system that would take away your triple crown. I can get pass the Tigers, but the Lions....



Meat and Heat decided to hit up the local gentleman's bar around the corner. Sidelines is hands down the loudest, most exciting sports bars in the Fort Lauderdale area. Yes, it's targeted for gay and lesbians, but there are no fair weather fans at this watering hole. We decided to watch the Godforsaken Lions battle the Colts. While Meat was busy fighting off dick left and right, Heat was having "stomach issues". With 4 minutes left in the game and the Lions with a 12 point lead, I was ready to pack it up and head back home for the night games. But Detroit, being the city of suck that it is, found a way to blow the lead and eventually the game. I hate going against Andrew Luck. In my experience, Luck has come through more often than not when I bet on a game.  With 4 minutes left, the Luck and the Colts managed to score, get the ball back, and march all the way to the redzone with 8 seconds left. The Lions, like their city were destined to fuck up. And fuck up they did. Luck rolls right and finds a streaking receiver for the win and the end of Heat and Meat's survivor run. I'm sure Meat will have a much more colorful outlook on this weekend's events.

Week 13: Time to Roar.

Survivor time.

This week pitted Heat and I against each other as to who to pick. I let Heat talk me out of Cincy last week into Indianapolis, and as I went through the write-up, I began to see that it was indeed the right choice. Sure, Cincinnati blew Oakland out. That happens. But sometimes Oakland hangs tough. They just didn't. That's why Cincy was also a good choice.

But with Indy, while I harbored no intentions that Luck and Co. would blow Buffalo out of the building, I was pretty sure that they'd win that game 9 times out of 10. Combined with 27% of people picking Cincy and less than 8% taking Indy, that's the type of week that shakes up survivor leagues. Same reason why I thought our call of Steelers over Chiefs wasn't the best for that week. EVERYBODY was riding a Steelers team that seems to generally refuse to blow bad teams out.

This week I championed a similar approach. I did not trust Dallas one bit, even at home over Philly. Hell, just two weeks ago Dallas almost handed us the league when they squeaked by Cleveland in OT. And Cleveland is not good. They are awful. If you saw them play Pittsburgh last week, you wouldn't have been too impressed. That's why I don't want to touch that game out in Oakland (Browns are now a 1.5 point favorite @ OAK)...I have no idea what to expect from two sorry-ass teams. Also wasn't too keen on trusting Carolina as KC has been somewhat feisty as of late.

So that left us to pick from Heat's choice of Baltimore over Pittsburgh and my choice of Detroit over Indianapolis. If you would have offered me a bet on Wednesday as to Ben Roethlisberger playing this weekend...I would have said he will play and I'd have taken it. Now he's out. And Pittsburgh's chances are now basically nil. Heat acquiesced to me this week because I'm so high on Detroit. The only thing I fear about Detroit is their dysfunctionality. The Titus Young-iness of their team. That Schartzy behavior. They should slaughter Indy. Like by 14. They are also a team that is only being selected by 1.4% of Yahoo users this week...which is huge, especially since people are all over the map with their selections. Most have used Dallas and can't use them this week, which explains the range of selections (obviously, if you have used Baltimore already, which many have, you'd throw down on Dallas if you were just playing by the book).

But I gotta stick to my guns. While I think the by-the-book (and clearly the best this week) selection here is Baltimore, I don't think you win playing by the book. The Steelers NEED this game. Baltimore is one of the worst 9-2 teams I've seen. I guess I'm clinging to that...there's like a 3% chance Pittsburgh and Batch somehow pull this out (maybe Tomlin is secretly planning to start Hoyer....please please pleeeeease). Heat and I play differently, as he's a little bit more conservative than I am while I typically like to stick to my guns and make selections like this. It's boom or bust. Last year in my other league I won in week 6. This year I was done in week 3. Feast or famine.

So it comes down to Detroit being a 1:00 game (I hate waiting for a late survivor game), the fact that I think they are a very safe pick if they even kind of show up, and the fact that no one is ridin' them Lions this week. When I break it down, it sounds very good to me. I would not trust either the rest of the way out, so there's no saving teams here.

I just hate how I strong-armed Heat into it this week and how I sabotage the entire season if my team Detroits it this week. But let's get it. LET'S ROAR, LIONS!

Meat's Sizzling Pick - Week 13

That sizzling pick this week, all nicely seasoned grade-A beef, is...

PHILADELPHIA +10 @ DALLAS

In my weekly round-up, I chose Philly +9 over Dallas as a dripping wet pick. Now the line is up to Eagles +10 on Topbet and I've seen it as high as Eagles +10.5 on the internet. This pick is now SIZZLING.

I lost my sizzling pick last week on the strength of 47 Pittsburgh turnovers, so I'm 0-1. Let's break that shit immediately and start cooking some fucking beef around these parts.

Survivor write-up to come today or tomorrow. No one is picking tonight's Saints @ Falcons game (most people have used both teams anyway), so no rush.

This pick is approved by both HEAT and MEAT. So you know you can put all the beef on the grill for this one. 

This Week's REAL Bets

Fake money is fun and all, but these are the REAL bets I've placed this week. With actual money!

In 2010, I put down $25 or so on Green Bay at 25:1 odds to make it to the Super Bowl. This was after week 15, where they needed to win out and get some help from the Giants to even make it to the postseason. This was pretty much the only bet I won that year, but it won me $625 and led to about 2 hours of work trying to actually get a check from Bodog when I withdrew some of it. Had the Steelers to win that Super Bowl...that would have really put me in the money. Oh well. Win some, lose...well, most.

So this week, I put $25 down on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. +4000 odds, or 40:1. So if somehow, Ben Roethlisberger comes back, struggles the Steelers to the playoffs, turns everything around and ends up with the Lombardi...I win a cool $1,000! Yeah, probably better off playing Powerball. Oh well.

Other bets this week (I'm going low dollar amounts because I suck at betting and, well, I don't want to lose a lot of money):


• $10 on Philadelphia +10 over Dallas.

Already went over my rationale for this one. I can't see struggling Dallas beating Philly by more than 10 in that Greek amphitheater they call a stadium. Tony Romo is a living embodiment of tragedy and comedy. Nick Foles and Bryce Brown are gonna do this! By this, I mean lose by like, 3.

HEAT approved. Double down on this one.

•  $10 on Carolina -3 over Kansas City

Game's in Kansas City, Kansas City isn't awful if they don't turn the ball over, but...it's the Chiefs, it's Brady Quinn, and there's probably a 50/50 chance that Carolina blows them out, let alone wins by three. I'll take my chances.

HEAT approved. Don't get too crazy with this one though.

• $5 on Houston -5.5 over Tennessee

Same as above. Pretty decent chance that Houston just straight up rolls over Tennessee. I don't like this as much as I like the others, so I only put $5 on it. That and I don't want to waste all of my money right off the bat. We'll see how I do this week before we start getting crazy.


• $5 parlay (to win $30) on:
Texas +11.5 over Kansas State
Georgia +7.5 over Alabama
Georgia Tech +14 over Florida State

Taking the big underdogs here to all cover. Was going to add UCLA +8.5 over Stanford as well, but decided against it.

HEAT'S VIEW: These are three great games to parlay. I think that K-State will cover the spread as well as the Tide. But I am a little biased with Bama. GT is a great pick with the points as well as UCLA, with the points, if anyone would like to substitute with what should be a good game.

Now, I don't watch much college football. The only game I'm really confident with here is the Texas-K State game. I'm not big on Texas, and I liked Kansas State a lot this year, but this just screams let down to me. This is still a tough match-up even if K. State were undefeated and not crying miserably into their flannel, and even then I'd say 11.5 is too much. Now, it's way too much. Hell, I think Texas wins straight-up. I talked myself into taking them on the moneyline here.

Georgia and Ga. Tech are just rumblings from people I trust, and so I figured I'd throw them in to make this bet worth something. Alabama is awesome, but Georgia is no slouch. They've been playing out of their minds lately. I think they have a decent chance to beat Alabama, and a very decent chance to lose by 7 or less.

Tech I have no idea about. I have a friend who lives in Vegas, went to Florida State, and loves Tech as a 14 pt underdog. Sure, they got stomped by Georgia, but I'm just not feeling FSU enough to think he's wrong. Actually, I pretty much hate FSU. So whatever, I'll just take his word for it.


• $5 on Texas +350 to win $17.50

I just love this line and talked myself into this bet while I wrote the above passage. This shit is fun! Let's just hope I don't lose every bet so I can keep playing.

HEAT: Happy betting. Don't beat your loved ones!

You Can't Win Fantasy with Shonn Greenes

And I know you can't. That's why I suck. I KNOW that having Shonn Greene on my roster is a terrible idea. It is every year. But you get to those late rounds and...hey, Shonn Greene is still there! HE'S A STARTING RUNNING BACK! Bulk of his team's carries!

And that is the WORST kind of player for your team. Because he fucks up the entire roster.

The problem with Shonn Greene is that he does have the occasional week where he blows up. This year he put up 30 against New England. He's the 15th rated RB all year. But that's only because volume. Shonn Greene makes you start him every fucking week because you don't know when he's going to finally have that good game. 4 points, 3 points, 7 points, FUCK HIM. I benched him the week of the Indy game. I hate him. I hate everything he stands for. I want to quit being a starting NFL running back. I hope he wins Powerball and quits playing NFL football.

Shonn Greene hamstrings you. Almost every week, there's a guy on your bench that's a better option. But nooooooo, Shonn Greene might blow up this week! Dwayne Bowe is a Shonn Greene. Ryan Mathews is quickly becoming a Shonn Greene. I have all three. I got all three late. They screamed value. THEY ARE NOT VALUABLE. Rashard Mendenhall has worked himself into a Shonn Greene.

I picked up Bryce Brown but quickly dropped him so Heat could have him. It was kind of a dick move to pick him up (Heat asked me about running backs and I didn't think he'd be available), but then I figured, ehhh, I have starting running backs and I don't even know if McCoy will be out until it's too late (then they go and rule him out on Saturday) and I can't really use him so I'll release him and let Heat have him. I mean, I had Donald Brown and Shonn Greene! Surely one of them will at least do what Bryce Brown might do.

Fuck. Me. With Percy Harvin and Rob Gronkowski out, I'm pretty much done. And it's all because I drafted Shonn Greene.

NEVER AGAIN

Meat's Dripping Wet Week 13 Picks

So I'm 6-7 after week one with a cheap +$0 "win" total. Because I threw like 200 fake bills down on Carolina. Whatever.

After last week, I've got some new rules. My bets are either $0, $25, or $50. Be confident to throw down at least $25 or avoid said game completely.

So let's go. This week I'll use topbet.com for my lines.


NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) @ ATLANTA

I'm not the biggest Atlanta fan. I still think New Orleans is decent, even after SF took it to them and picked off Captain Birthmark for two pick-sixes.

A lot of teams have gone into Atlanta and taken the Falcons to the doorstep of defeat. And these have been fuckawful teams. Hell, even Peyton Manning and the Broncos did everything they could to give that game to the Falcons and they still almost blew it. So, I think New Orleans wins this game straight-up. Giving me 3.5? Hell yeah, I'll take that. This pick is DRIPPING THE FUCK WET.

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans +3.5, $50.



SEATTLE (+6.5) @ CHICAGO

Topbet doesn't have a line on this, so I'll use the one that Heat found. Chicago is just about a TD favorite.

Heat apparently loves Young Insulin, and while I don't love him as much as Heat does, I do think he's done pretty damn well this year all things considered. The Bears do not block. Their line is a damn sieve. They are like the walls in the second quest of Zelda because you can just walk through them.

I bet against the Bears last week and they slaughtered Minnesota, right in my face. I'm tempted to do it again because the line is so big, but I can't. Seattle is not a good road team and Chicago keeps killing me. So I'm gonna leave this one alone this week.

MEAT'S PICK: Chicago -6.5, $0

EDIT: This was a Heat line, so it's completely fabricated. I'll update this later when the real spread comes out. If it's significantly lower than Seattle +6.5, Chicago may start to sizzle.

EDIT 2 (Thursday): The real line is Chicago +3.5. I like that better. Chicago's been killing me, I'm gonna give them a shot this week.

MEAT'S UPDATED PICK ON THURS. 11/29: Chicago +3.5, $25



MINNESOTA (+9) @ GREEN BAY 

Green Bay forgot to play last week against NYG, but I'm not going to hold that against them and apparently, neither is Vegas. I think this is way too much for a team that has not really blown anybody out at home this year. Jacksonville almost beat them in their own house. Minnesota is a young team but, after the Mark Chmura incident, Green Bay refuses to take advantage of young people in their own house.

I hate Ponder but I think the Vikings keep it within 9. Heat loves those big lines but I generally do not. I'll probably bet against all of them this week.

Actually, I changed my mind. I don't like this one so I'll save my fake money. 

MEAT'S PICK: Minnesota +9, $0




SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS (+7)

This one is tough. St. Louis is better but they aren't that good. San Francisco just tied St. Louis in SF but that's not to be expected.

So I'm just going to ignore that. San Francisco IS that much better than St. Louis, and I think they win by at least a TD. I am picking this bet now because it's a fucking fake betting blog, but if I were to bet for real...I'd wait to see that Kaepernick is starting for SF. If Alex Smith is starting, I probably don't touch this game because he has the ability to turn anything into a close game. But not in the good way. He's just simply not the best option and the sooner Harbaugh commits to Kaepernick the better for San Fran. He doesn't even have a cool nickname like Smitty or Cumlord. Think I'd bet against the Cumlord? Doubt it.

MEAT'S PICK: San Francisco -7, $25



ARIZONA (+4.5) @ NYJ

Do I need to explain this? The Jets are favored by 4.5? I don't care if they are playing inside of Rex Ryan's colon, I cannot throw money on a favored Jets team.

Ryan Lindley looked good last week when he wasn't throwing pick-sixes to Janoris Jenkins. I think he'll be better. And I think the Jets are disgustingly bad. Sanchez and company will struggle to move the ball on Arizona. And to not turn it over.

Dear Lord. Yeah, I'll take the points. (image from Deadspin.com)

MEAT'S PICK: Arizona +4.5, $25



CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY (+3)

This one's dripping wet. Kansas City losing by 3 would almost count as an upset.

Now...I know Kansas City's weakness is turnovers. And Carolina doesn't exactly have a stout D.

(No idea where Heat's lines are coming from, by the way...he has this one at -7.5????)

So, I should expect KC to keep it close or maybe even win. But I don't. Brady Quinn does not keep it close and maybe even win. He throws bounce passes that would make John Stockton's dick hard. You have to be pro-choice to even watch Brady Quinn play a full series. Which is usually three plays. Denver did basically nothing last week and still won by 8 in Kansas City. I bet on teams to show up and play at least their B games, and if both of these teams do so, Carolina should not have too much of a problem. This pick is dripping wet, yo.

 MEAT'S PICK: Carolina -3, $50




INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) @ DETROIT

As I mentioned last week, Indianapolis gets throttled almost regularly on the road. And while I do hate the Lions, I did expect them to play well last week and beat Houston. They arguably should have. And Houston did not play bad by any stretch. So why should the Lions have any problem with Indianapolis?

Andrew Luck has had a great rookie season, but that's it. It is not a great season by regular standards. He got some help to beat Buffalo last week, which happened basically exactly how I thought it would, and exactly how most Colts home games have played out. So I'm going to bet on the norms holding this week and Detroit taking care of business easily at home.

This game is my choice for survivor. Less than 1.5% of Yahoo users are taking Detroit this week. Heat disagrees, so we'll have to discuss that before Thursday's noon deadline. But I personally love Detroit to win this matchup. Second choice is probably Carolina, for reasons detailed above. The reason I prefer this to Carolina for survivor? I think I'm better more on Detroit whereas in the other case, where I'm better more against Kansas City.

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit -4.5, $25



JACKSONVILLE (+6) @ BUFFALO

Jacksonville has been riding the arm of Chad "Downtown" Henne (feels so weird to type that) and they are looking like a real team. However, this is one of the games where Fitzpatrick has one of this few 400-yard plus, 30+ points for Buffalo game.

But...even if I assume this will happen, I am also going to bet on Jacksonville continuing to look like an NFL team. Against Buffalo's newly-upgraded, still sieve-like defense, they should be able to keep within 6. Basically...I'll just take the points.

MEAT'S PICK: Jax +6, $25



NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI (+7.5)

Seriously Heat, where are you getting your lines? Unless otherwise noted, I can place these bets right now. Hell, I just took the Steelers at Topbet to win the Super Bowl at -4000 odds ($25 to win a G).

But as far as Heat's analysis, I concur. NE should roll over Miami.

MEAT'S PICK: New England -7.5, $25



HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE (+5.5)

Heat, you need new lines. I thought there was an overabundance of double-digit lines there. Double-digit lines are somewhat rare in the NFL...hell, Denver only got 10.5 at KC last week.

Anyway, Houston is still playing well and Tennessee is still Tennessee. Jacksonville fell back to Earth a little bit last week but still handled Tennessee at home. Jax needed a herculean effort to force OT against Houston. I don't think Tennessee is capable of said herculean effort. Chris Johnson rushes for over 200 inches and Houston wins by at least a TD.

MEAT'S PICK: Houston -5.5, $25



TAMPA BAY (+7) @ DENVER

This is too much, I think. Vegas must really love the effect of the Denver air. Heat has this game at TB +3.5. The fuck, man.

I've loved Tampa over the past few weeks. I took them early last week when the line had them as a pick 'em against Atlanta. They had a decent effort and nearly pulled that game out. I think they are capable of staying within 7 against Denver, but I'm not wholly confident. I'm 25 fake dollars confident, I guess.

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa Bay +7, $25



PHILADELPHIA (+9) @ DALLAS

+9? Have yinz seen Dallas this year? PLUS NINE??? I know Philly sucks, but so does Dallas.

Now, Carolina's been losing but playing well. I figured they'd wax the struggling Eagles last night. But...these aren't the same struggling Eagles. Nick Foles can't throw a spiral but he's not fumbling and throwing picks. Bryce Brown is fumbling, but when he's not he's running all over teams. It's not the same Philly that we saw over the past few weeks. Now, they aren't great or anything, but they are good enough to stay within 9 of Dallas, even if they are playing at the Bed the Romo Shit. As I've said before, I don't see Dallas as having any sort of home field advantage. And I don't think it's through any particular fault of their own - I've just read that teams love going in there to play the Cowboys.

I'm not quite willing to make this pick dripping wet, but I will put 50 fake ones on it.

MEAT'S PICK: Philly +9, $50



NYG @ WASHINGTON (+2.5)

I don't think this spread is high enough. I don't see New York losing this game, and if they win by a field goal, I win on the spread.

RGIII is awesome. He was awesome in the first matchup against the Giants. But it still wasn't enough then and I don't think it will be enough now, even with Garcon back. This is the Monday nighter so if you think there's anything to big time pressure situations like that, you'd give that advantage to the G-men, I'd think.

MEAT'S PICK: NYG -2.5, $25




CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO (+1)

As a Steeler fan, I kind of need Cincinnati to lose this one. And I think they will.

Basically, I'm going against my own advice and betting on the Chargers to NOT find a way to lose. I'm not sold by any stretch on the Bengals - they've been the next big thing since like, 200-fucking-4 now. First they were the bad boy upstart Bengals, and that blew up. Then they became the morally upstanding Bengals, and I loved those Bengals because they well-behaved themselves to 4-12 seasons. Then they became the power running Bengals, but they weren't good enough to pull that off and it lead to 10-6 at best, early playoff exit seasons. Now they are the young upstart Bengals, but since they aren't criminals it doesn't look to blow up this time. They do have AJ Green, and he's awesome. But...I think the 2005 Bengals wax this Bengals team. They aren't as talented as people think they are. They had a nice win against NYG, but the other two blowouts were against teams that get blown out in half of their games. The week before the NYG game, Heat and I gladly took Denver to beat them in their own house for survivor and never really thought twice about it. Even thought they only lost by a touchdown in the end. And it's not like Denver played particularly well that day.

I am not high on Andy Dalton. I am not buying the Bengals and will not until I have to. As this pick is based strongly on emotion both ways, I'm not going to attach any money to it. But I see the Chargers getting the win here as a slight home dog.

MEAT'S PICK: San Diego +1, $0


Cleveland-Oakland and Pittsburgh-Baltimore do not have lines, and I don't trust Heat's, so I'll come back tomorrow and throw those picks out there. Along with, I guess, anointing one of these bad boys as my sizzler of the week.

Week 12 brought a lot of ups and downs in the NFL and with Meat’s predictions.  All I know is that some changes will definitely be made in Philadelphia. Andy Reid can’t even keep his own children alive let alone the Eagles playoff hopes. At least Meat and I stayed alive one more week in our survivor pool thanks to the Colts 20-13 win over Buffalo.

This week’s choice has already caused confusion for the dynamic duo. I have decided to rank my picks in order of confidence.  Each week there are about 16 games played in the NFL depending on bye weeks. I will rank the games in order of how confident I am with my choice. The higher the number, the more confident I am that my choice will win. So let’s give it a go…Oh and I bet $5 a game...

#1 (least confident) New Orleans @ Atlanta

I could flip a coin in this matchup and feel satisfied with either side. NO has been playing well as of late despite having the worst defense in the league. Their secondary should be on Teen Mom. Sproles should be back and not limited to help an already unstoppable passing game for Brees. Atlanta has a better defense and has the home field going for them.

Atlanta -3.5

#2   Seattle @ Chicago

Beast Mode and RW3 bring their talents to Chicago to face the Diabetic Hurler and the Bears defense. Seattle is coming off an embarrassing road loss to face a tough defense at home. The chickenhawks better hope that the Bears play as bad as Urlacher’s acting.

Chicago -6.5

#3  Cincy @ San Diego

Phillip Rivers is overrated and San Diego might be the best city to live for single professionals under 40, but I can’t stand their football team, except for their jerseys. The powder blue was the best look in the NFL before the Seahawks took that spot this season.  Cincy is playing well as of late, even if it was just the Raiders. Expect the Dalton-Green express to continue rolling.

Cincy -5.5

#4 Cleveland @ Oakland

Both teams suck and should just prepare for the draft. Wait, the Raiders can’t. They don’t have draft picks for the next two years. Thanks Carson, you slightly better Sanchez. I’m going with the Raid pieces on this one. Trent “Greased Pig” Richardson is having a great season, but I can’t see the Raiders losing to the Shit Browns at home. Beating the Browns this week should validate the first win vs Pittsburgh for the silver and black.

Raiders -3.5

#5  Arizona @ New York Jets

A third string QB vs Arizona’s Lindley who passed for 300yds last week and no TDs in a loss. This game better not be on television in South Florida, or someone’s job should be terminated.  This is as good a week as any to debate the Tebow situation in NY.

Arizona -6.5

#6  Indy @ Detroit

Luck is on a roll. Them Colts kept Heat and Meat alive last week . The Colts are playing for a cure. If they win the Superbowl this year, they will amputate Luck’s arm and cure Leukemia! There’s no better reason to root for a team. Detroit looks good on paper, but when you throw all those high ego low talent names on the field they just kick people and forget what playing football looks like. Stafford will throw for 300 with 3 TDs and 2 Ints and Megatron will have a monster game, but it will all be for nothing.

Indy -5.5

#7 Jacksonville @ Buffalo

There have been Henne sightings the last two weeks in Jacksonville. It seems that Chad forgot how much he sucked. But it is nice to see someone finally throwing to DUI Blackmon. Buffalo says that CJ Spiller is going to get 60% of the carries this week, while Fred Jackson will get 40%. Thanks Buffalo for the inside info! With that type of strategy their only worry should be containing Mr. Shorts III.

Buffalo – 3.5

#8  New York Giants @ Washington

So, Eli has a tired arm right? This is the perfect game then. Washington’s defense is terrible. Bert 3 is playing out of his mind and he can’t get any help on the other side of the ball.

Giants -9.5

#9 Tampa Bay @ Denver

Where did Tampa come from? I’ll admit, I’m not a Freeman fan. I have never liked his game, but they are playing well this year with the help from DOUG. Doug just does what Doug does. You can’t stop him. Peyton can make any receiver relevant. This is a tough one, but I’m going for the upset this week.

Tampa +3.5

#10 Carolina @ KC

Cam vs Brady Quinn. There is nothing else to say here. KC is terrible. They have a few moments where they look like a decent team, but then the other team realizes that they’re playing KC  and can’t lose.

Carolina – 7.5

#11  Philadelphia @ Dallas (Heat’s Hot Fire of the Week)

This is the game that I’m in favor of picking for the survivor pool this week. Philly hasn’t shown anything all season, and although it’s a rivalry game and the Dallas play calling is crap, I think them Boys will pull off the win. It’s not a consensus pick, so we should be safe with that rule. Without McCoy and Vick this should be a must win game for Dallas, at home. If Dallas can’t win this game, they need to tear down that overpriced club they call a field.

Dallas -10.5

#12 Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (Heat’s #2 pick of the week)

I’m surrounded by Steelers fans because of the company I keep. Meat would have the most accurate line on this game. I’m going with the Birds.

Ravens -10.5

#13 SF @ St. Louis

SF has an actual QB controversy unlike the Jets arguing over which back up will end their season more gracefully.  Smith will be back with the starters, but Kaep should get some playing time in this blow out.

SF -13.5

#14 Minnesota @ GB

Unfortunately, I’m looking at this game purely from a fantasy perspective. This sucks, because I would usually give no thought to this game. All I’m hoping for is an AP injury that will take him out for next week. Rodgers is always someone to worry about, and is Sandusky like..Just too much for these kids in Minnesota.

GB – 10.5

#15 Houston @ Tennessee

Assuming that the Houston D gets the big dick they’ve been choking on the last two weeks out of their mouth, then they will win this game without a problem. Foster, Johnson, and Watt are just too much for Locker and the Titans.

Houston -10.5

#16 (most confident pick) NE @ Miami

New England is playing the Dolphins. I don’t care who is out for NE. It does not matter.

NE -14.5

Carolina 30 - Philly 22

Damn sons, looks like Bryce Brown is fa rill, yo. The Eagles backup ran all over Carolina and put the Panthers pick in doubt, but, alas, two lost fumbles did him in in the end. Nick Foles can't throw a spiral to save his life but he was still accurate and made good decisions. Eagles looked a lot better than I expected, and Carolina didn't look that good at all on offense when I watched. But, they got it done.

Since I had 225 fake dollars riding on the game, which is kind of cheap I know, and I won't do it again I swear, I'm not at an even $0. Probably would have lost about $50 in vigs but fuck vigs. Vigorice. Yep, looks like spellcheck doesn't gamble.

Terrible start to the blog with those dripping wet picks, which were about as dry as a Utah saloon. But I'll do better next week. And Heat will do something next week. Maybe.

Meat's Week 12 Morning After Report

Had a great day Thursday. Not so much on Sunday, as many of my sizzling picks burned. That's the thing with a sizzling pick - you get that meat ready too early and by the time Sunday comes around it's charred as fuck. Expect that single coming out from Gunpowder Jones, Bankshot and Wrench. CHARRED AS FUCK. We ready.

Anyways, let's take a look.


HOUSTON @ DETROIT (-3)

MEAT'S PICK: Detroit, $0

WHAT HAPPENED: I expected Detroit to win this game, but it was close to a coinflip. That and the fact that many games are decided these days by a field goal, hell, take the points. This game was and on my line, it was a push. Detroit played like they were going to win, but a shitstorm of shit shitted them in the face and they ended up Detroiting it away at the end. Vegas lines were DET -3.5, so you would have won if you put some action down on that line. Either way, my $0 bets are ones that aren't really meant to count, so even if it weren't a push I'm not counting it toward my total.


WASHINGTON @ DALLAS (-3)

MEAT'S PICK:Washington +3, $20

WHAT HAPPENED:Well, I took the points because Dallas is inconsistent as hell and I didn't see them winning by more than three. Turns out, they did JUST what we've seen from them all year...sucked early, got down big, came back but fell short in the end. In retrospect kind of an easy choice but I guess everything is easy in retrospect.

RUNNING TALLY: +20, 1-0




NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS (+7)


MEAT'S PICK:New England -7, $30

WHAT HAPPENED: I bet that NYJ would be completely awful, because that's what the percentages suggested. They are completely awful more often than not. And on Thursday, they were a special brand of awful. Easy money.

RUNNING TALLY: +50, 2-0




DENVER @ KANSAS CITY (+10.5)

MEAT'S PICK:Denver -10.5, $25

WHAT HAPPENED:Denver sucked in this one. Kansas City actually played well in the first half, but missed out on touchdowns with some weird playcalling and ultimately fell to Denver 17-9. Denver went through the motions but it was enough to beat the middling Chiefs. Wasn't enough to cover the spread, though.

RUNNING TALLY: +25, 2-1



TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE (-3)

MEAT'S PICK: Kind of Tennessee +3, $0

WHAT HAPPENED:Another one not meant to count, as I didn't know what to expect from the Jags. Gun to my head, I predicted they revert to the old Jags. However, they did not. Henne is still playing well and Justin Blackmon is still looking like an NFL receiver. Jags had to win by 3 and they did, winning 24-19. I hope you didn't place actual money on this game.

RUNNING TALLY: +25, 2-1



BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS (-3)

MEAT'S PICK: Indianapolis -3, $10

WHAT HAPPENED: This bet was more against Buffalo than for Indianapolis, as Ryan Fitzpatrick simply isn't the answer. Sometimes he plays decently and throws the ball all over the place for like 400 yards, but he usually mixes in a pick or two that kills his team's chances. But, more often than not, he plays like John Skelton, throws for like 220 and a TD and leads a moribund offense to 17 points. So, I played the odds and figured he would put up one of those boring games. He did. This game was boring as hell but Indy got it done. I didn't have much faith in this one so I only put up $10. That will change next week - I'm killing myself with these money variables.

RUNNING TALLY: +35, 3-1



OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI (-9.5)

MEAT'S PICK: Oakland +9.5, $30

WHAT HAPPENED: Oakland got ass raped. It's that simple. I thought Cincy might lose this game and I was just plainly wrong as fuck.

RUNNING TALLY: +5, 3-2



SEATTLE @ MIAMI (-3)

MEAT'S PICK: Miami, $10

WHAT HAPPENED: Took the East Coast home team and the points. Figured it would be decided by a field goal. It was decided by a TD, and the TD was Miami's. Good for them. Didn't like it at all so I only put down $10. I'm an idiot.

RUNNING TALLY: +15, 4-2



ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY (PK)

MEAT'S PICK: Tampa -0, $50

WHAT HAPPENED: Thought Tampa had this game, but in the end they let Atlanta take it from them by a point. Saw some Tampa +1.5 lines as the game approached which would have given me a win, but I was going off a pick 'em line and have to stick to it. A crushing loss that I feel is going to beget more crushing losses to follow.

RUNNING TALLY: -35, 4-3. Over .500, losing money. I'm the best.



PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND (PK)

MEAT'S PICK: Pittsburgh +0, $100

WHAT HAPPENED: Putting my sizzling pick here to tie it into the next one. Basically, I figured Pittsburgh, even with a backup QB, was so much better than Cleveland that they would continue their streak of, what, like 19 wins out of their last 20 vs. the Browns? But I did not see them fumbling 6 times. That's just embarrassing. Then the Browns fumble one fucking time and the refs call it forward progress. This game was an abomination and, by virtue of it's closeness on an 8-1 turnover disparity, showed how bad the Browns were. That's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

RUNNING TALLY: -135, 4-4. NOICE



BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO (PK)

MEAT'S PICK: Baltimore +0, $15

WHAT HAPPENED: I put the Steelers-Browns game above to say something about this one. While I did count on the Chargers doing their thing and finding a way to lose, I didn't expect them to do it like this. They just outplayed the hell out of Baltimore. There was no reason for Baltimore to win this game. Picking them was the wrong call. And yet, they fucking won. I think my call on the Steelers game was correct. And I think this one was incorrect. And yet this is how it turns out. Good thing I only put 15 fake dollars down! Fuck.

RUNNING TALLY: -120, 5-4



ST. LOUIS @ ARIZONA (-1)

MEAT'S PICK: Arizona -1, $40

WHAT HAPPENED: Thought this one was easy money. And Arizona looked good early. But there's no way you are winning a game when you throw 2 fucking pick-sixes to the same fucking guy. That ball must have been filled with weed the way Janoris Jenkins was going after it. I am pretty much out of fake money now.

RUNNING TALLY: -160, 5-5



SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS (-1)

MEAT'S PICK: New Orleans -1, $15

WHAT HAPPENED: I figured New Orleans would win a close one here. Didn't see Drew Brees throwing two pick-sixes, but he did. San Francisco's defense is just awesome and they are very very very dangerous with Colin Kaepernick starting. Just plain wrong about this one.

RUNNING TALLY: -175, 5-6



GREEN BAY @ NYG (-2.5)

MEAT'S PICK: Green Bay +2.5, $50

WHAT HAPPENED: Surprised the Giants were favored, based on the direction each team was going. Then they just wax the fuck out of Green Bay. Green Bay tied it up at 7 early and were never heard from again. I am terrible at this but I'll come back strong next week, guaranteed! Not really.

RUNNING TALLY: -225, 5-7



So here's what I'm going to do. I've got $35 riding on Carolina tonight -2.5. Current line on topbet.com is Carolina -3. I'm going to put another $190 on Carolina -3. If this were real money, this is what would be known as a "gambling problem". But it's not, so I'm cool.

And yeah, I know there's vigs and shit, I'm just going to ignore that. Because this isn't real. So suck it.


Running total: -$225, 5-7 overall.

Rating: FUCKING AWFUL

Bye